Is it too late to expand the College Football Playoff to 12 teams for the 2023 season?
As we are now halfway through the final season of the four-team format, it is clear that the playoffs are a year late. There are at least 10 teams that look capable of winning the national title through the first seven weeks of the season. If there was a 12-team playoff this season, this is what we think the field would look like right now. The four quarterfinal games would be extraordinary.
1. Michigan Wolverines (7-0)
The Wolverines have been the most dominant team in college football so far this season and will likely be atop the inaugural College Football Playoff rankings come Oct. 31. Michigan defeated Indiana 52-7 on Saturday and has outscored its first four Big Ten opponents by 149 points while no one scored more than 10 against UM all season. This could be the year Michigan breaks through to the national title game after back-to-back semifinal losses.
Michigan has dominated its opponents so far in 2023. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)
The two-time defending champions defeated Vanderbilt 37-20 on Saturday, although All-World TE Brock Bowers suffered what appeared to be a sprained ankle in the first half and did not return to the game. Georgia has looked more impressive over the last two weeks following its early wins over South Carolina and Auburn and enters the week off before its annual rivalry game with Florida. It’s hard to see where Georgia will lose in the regular season.
3. Washington Huskies (6-0)
The Huskies have a scary road ahead of them in November. But we’re here to appreciate what Washington has done so far this season. Michael Penix Jr. threw four touchdowns in the team’s thrilling win over Oregon on Saturday and is the favorite for the Heisman Trophy as long as Washington keeps winning. Penix and Rome Odunze are the best QB-WR combination in college football and Washington’s defense is in good spirits.
Washington is 6-0 and Michael Penix Jr. is the Heisman favorite. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)
4. Florida State Seminoles (6-0)
The Seminoles’ wins over LSU and Clemson would be enough to earn them the final first-round bye in our mock playoff format. FSU beat Syracuse on Saturday as Jordan Travis had a passing touchdown and two rushing touchdowns and Keon Coleman had nine catches for 140 yards. Coleman has been a phenomenal addition to the offense after transferring from Michigan State, and the FSU defense has stepped up over the last two weeks.
The Sooners were eliminated on Saturday after their big win over Texas in Week 6. The fact that QB Dillon Gabriel is healthy has given the offense a big boost, while the defense has made one of the biggest improvements of any unit in college football. After allowing 30 points per game a season ago, Oklahoma has only given up 14 points per game so far this season. Texas became the first team to score more than 20 goals against the Sooners in 2023.
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0)
The Buckeyes earned their most dominant victory of the season against a Power Five opponent on Saturday with an easy 41-7 win over Purdue. Ohio State relied on Dallan Hayden at running back, TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams were sidelined due to injuries, and Chip Trayanum had to leave the game after suffering a serious blow. But Ohio State’s defense is for real and Kyle McCord and the offense continue to improve week after week.
Marvin Harrison Jr. and Ohio State are undefeated. (Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) (Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
We’ll learn a lot more about the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes in Week 8 after they meet. Saturday marked an opener for Penn State with an easy win over UMass. Penn State’s defense is stifling and there are still a few questions about the explosiveness of the passing game. Drew Allar threw three touchdowns on Saturday and was 16 of 23 but averaged just seven yards per attempt. PSU needs to break out a big play or two against the Buckeyes.
The Longhorns and Sooners could be on a collision course and meet again in the Big 12 title game. Texas no longer has any other ranked opponents on the schedule and, like Oklahoma, was also out on Saturday. UT chose the wrong time to play its worst game of the season in Week 6, but was very impressive through the first five weeks. This is still a team that is fully capable of posting an 11-1 regular season record.
How fun would Oregon vs. Texas be as a first-round playoff game? The Ducks showed with their performance against Washington on Saturday that they are still firmly in a thick Pac-12 mix. Dan Lanning’s late fourth-down call was the right one, even if it didn’t work out. It was very likely that Washington would have a chance for a game-winning touchdown with fewer seconds remaining when the Ducks punted.
10. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1)
The Crimson Tide aren’t winning particularly well, but they are the clear frontrunner in the SEC West at the moment. Jalen Milroe was very good in a 24-21 win over Arkansas on Saturday and seems to be getting better every week as a starter. The defense is legitimate and allows Milroe to grow into the job. But it’s also worth asking whether Alabama will have enough firepower if it comes to a shootout with LSU.
We saw how important Devontez Walker can be to the UNC offense on Saturday night when he caught three touchdowns in the Tar Heels’ win over Miami. UNC has scored at least 30 points in each of its first six games, but the key to its success so far has been much-improved defense. Miami was UNC’s top-ranked opponent of the season; The playoff committee would affect the early strength of the Tar Heels’ schedule. But this is a very good team that has become even better with Walker’s signing.
Tulane could be the leading candidate to represent the Group of Five in a New Year’s Six bowl game at the end of the year, but Air Force has been exceptional so far this season. The Falcons outlasted a very good Wyoming team on Saturday night, outscoring their first five opponents of the season by 26 points per game.
-Nick Bromberg
winner
Washington: The No. 7 Huskies established themselves as the team to beat in the Pac-12 midway through the season with a 36-33 win over No. 8 Oregon. Michael Penix Jr. threw four touchdown passes and should be the clear Heisman favorite if the Huskies beat Oregon for the second straight year. Washington ends the season with four straight opponents but could be 8-0 in early November with games against Arizona State and Stanford next up.
Oregon State: The Oregon State vs. UCLA game was an important game in the Pac-12 race, and the Beavers left no doubt about it. Jonathan Smith’s team defeated the Bruins 36-24 to improve to 6-1 overall and 3-1 in Pac-12 play. The Beavers intercepted UCLA freshman Dante Moore three times, all in the first half. The third of those INTs was returned 67 yards for a touchdown, giving the Beavers a 23-10 lead at halftime. UCLA tried to make things interesting in the second half, but the deficit was too big to overcome. The Beavers now enter a bye period a week before the home stretch of the final Pac-12 season. You will have the chance to emerge victorious.
Oregon State wide receiver Silas Bolden (7) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against UCLA on Saturday, October 14, 2023, in Corvallis, Oregon. (AP Photo/Amanda Loman) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Missouri: Missouri bounced back from last week’s loss to LSU with a big road win over Kentucky. It was a close game most of the way. The Tigers trailed 21-20 early in the fourth quarter before finishing the run with a 17-0 scoring spurt and leaving Lexington with a 38-21 victory. With the win, Missouri is now 6-1 overall and 2-1 in SEC play. It won’t be easy, but there is a path to the SEC title game ahead of us, with division games against South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee and Florida in the coming weeks. Missouri hasn’t had more than six wins during Eli Drinkwitz’s tenure, so reaching 6-1 at this point in the season is progress for the program.
Stanford WR Elic Ayomanor: Stanford pulled off a remarkable comeback to surprise Colorado 46-43 in double overtime, and it wouldn’t have been possible without the outstanding performance of Elic Ayomanor. Ayomanor had a ridiculous 13 catches for 294 yards and three touchdowns, helping the Cardinals overcome a 29-0 halftime deficit. Entering Friday night’s game, Ayomanor had 15 catches for 207 yards and a TD in Stanford’s last five games. Ayomanor had TDs of 97 and 60 yards in the third quarter and then made a ridiculous play over Colorado’s Travis Hunter to send the game into double overtime.
Dana Holgorsen: Dana Holgorsen probably experienced the full spectrum of emotions in about five minutes. Holgorsen spent eight seasons at West Virginia before leaving to take the job in Houston. And with UH now in the Big 12, Holgorsen finally got to practice against his former school. It was a wild game that Houston won on a Hail Mary as time expired. Donovan Smith caught Stephon Johnson 49 yards out as time expired to give UH a wild 41-39 victory. It shouldn’t have come down to that. UH had a 35-24 lead, but WVU scored twice in 3:30 late in the fourth quarter, including a fourth-down touchdown and a 50-yard touchdown, to take a 39-35 lead with just 12 seconds left before the end of the regular season. That could have doomed Holgorsen’s Cougars, but an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty against WVU after the TD gave Houston good field position. The Cougars took advantage.
air force: Air Force won a 34-27 thriller over Wyoming to remain undefeated and take control of first place in the Mountain West. The Falcons trailed 14-0 early and 21-17 at halftime, but staged a comeback to take a 27-21 lead early in the fourth period. Wyoming responded with what looked like a go-ahead touchdown, except Air Force blocked the extra point to keep the score at 27-27. That set the stage for Air Force’s John Lee Eldridge III to win the game with a 58-yard touchdown run. Now that it’s 6-0, don’t be surprised if the Falcons are ranked next week. This is a team that is in the conversation for a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl game.
James Madison: JMU just keeps winning. The Dukes are 6-0 overall and 3-0 in Sun Belt play thanks to a dominant 41-13 win over Georgia Southern on Saturday. Before defeating the Eagles, JMU defeated Troy and South Alabama – the two participants in last year’s Sun Belt title game. JMU appears to be the best team in the SBC, but the Dukes are still ineligible for postseason play due to NCAA rules for moving teams from the FCS to the FBS. That’s a shame because JMU had been one of the best Group of Five teams in the country up to this point in the season.
Utah DB Sione Vaki: Colorado’s Travis Hunter isn’t the only Pac-12 player excelling on both sides of the ball, as Utah’s safety Sione Vaki had a great game against Cal. Vaki was used in a variety of ways on offense, including as a Wildcat QB and in the backfield with RB Ja’Quinden Jackson. It worked beautifully as Vaki rushed for 158 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries in the 34-14 win. That included a 72-yard touchdown. Vaki also had four tackles on defense and is now tied for the team lead.
loser
USC: USC had some close chances against mediocre Pac-12 competition. That level of play didn’t translate to the Trojans’ trip to Notre Dame, as they fell to 1-6 with an ugly 48-20 loss. Caleb Williams threw three interceptions in the first half, all of which led to ND touchdowns. He also had a fumble in the fourth quarter that was recovered for a Notre Dame score. It was an ugly performance for the Trojans, who also allowed a 46-yard deep ball and a 99-yard kickoff return for touchdowns in the second half. USC needs to clean up significantly to survive an upcoming Pac-12 battle that includes games against Utah, Washington and Oregon.
Colorado: CU’s chances of making the bowl game are pretty slim after an epic collapse against Stanford. Colorado should have eked out a win after taking a 29-0 lead, but lost 46-43 in the second overtime after Stanford scored touchdowns on its first five possessions of the second half. A win over the Cardinals would have given Colorado a win in a bowl game. Instead, Colorado needs two wins to qualify for the postseason, and UCLA, Oregon State, Arizona, Washington State and Utah are in line for the rest of the schedule.
Michigan State: Michigan State had a 24-6 lead over Rutgers early in the fourth quarter before an epic meltdown. Rutgers scored three touchdowns in less than five minutes, turning a 24-6 deficit into a 27-24 lead. That ended up being the end result of a brutal defeat for MSU. The downturn began when punter Michael O’Shaughnessy fumbled a snap in his own end zone, which Rutgers used for a score. After another Rutgers TD, MSU’s special teams struck again as Tyrell Henry failed to score on the ensuing kickoff and Rutgers was able to pounce on the loose ball. On the next play, the Scarlet Knights scored the winning TD. It was the Spartans’ fourth straight loss and by far their worst. Next on the 2-4 Spartans’ schedule is Michigan. Yikes.
Wisconsin: Wisconsin had a chance to take control of the Big Ten West, but had a miserable performance in a 15-6 home loss to Iowa. Iowa only had 37 passing yards but somehow managed to run for 200 yards on the Badgers, who fell behind on an 82-yard TD run by Iowa’s Leshon Williams. The score was 7-6 at halftime, but the Badgers were eliminated in the second half after an injury to QB Tanner Mordecai. Wisconsin was 2 of 17 on third down, turned over twice and had a costly turnover on downs in the loss.
Louisville: A lot can change in a week. Louisville had a big win at home against Notre Dame last weekend, improving to 6-0 and moving up to No. 14 in the rankings. What followed was a trip to 1-4 Pitt that had all the ingredients for a potential hangover game. That’s exactly what happened. Pitt looked restored after a bye week and pulled off the upset by winning 38-21. Louisville, no longer undefeated, made so many mistakes. Jack Plummer had a fumble and two interceptions, including a pick-six. UL was also 0 of 4 on its fourth attempt and 5 of 13 on its third attempt.
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Washington: Things went south quickly for No. 19 Washington State. After a 4-0 start, the Cougars were now 4-2. Last week, WSU lost 25-17 at UCLA. This week was much worse as the Cougars lost at home to Arizona 44-6. It was an ugly game as WSU was only able to muster 234 yards of offense on three turnovers. On the other hand, the defense allowed Arizona freshman QB Noah Fifita to throw for 342 yards in his third start in place of the injured Jayden de Laura. Things won’t get any easier for the Cougars when they travel to Eugene to take on Oregon next weekend.
Texas A&M: Texas A&M blew a halftime lead for the second game in a row. Last week, the Aggies led Alabama at home and lost 26-20. This week, the Aggies led Tennessee 10-7 on the road and lost 20-13. Tennessee took a 14-10 lead with a punt return touchdown in the third quarter and never looked back. The Aggies had chances late in the fourth quarter, but were doomed by two late interceptions by Max Johnson. It was Texas A&M’s eighth straight road loss. Now 4-3 heading into the bye week, the hot seat talks are heating up for Jimbo Fisher.
South Carolina: South Carolina faces a bumpy road to bowl eligibility after a heartbreaking 41-39 home loss to Florida on Saturday. The Gamecocks, now 2-4, were down 37-27 with 9:11 left in the fourth quarter but allowed the Gators to score two touchdowns in the final five minutes to secure the win. The game-winning touchdown pass was a 21-yard connection from Graham Mertz to Ricky Pearsall with just 47 seconds to play. Mertz torched the Gamecocks for 423 yards and three touchdowns. Before Saturday, Mertz’s season-high was 333 yards in the opener against Utah. And many of these farms were created in garbage. The Gamecocks defense made him look like an All-American.