Halloween brings us the official start of the College Football Playoff season.
The first set of the CFP rankings are expected to be released Tuesday evening, as we’ll take a look at how the committee views the college football landscape through the first nine weeks of the season. There will undoubtedly be some surprises; The committee usually deviates somewhat from the AP Top 25.
With the first rankings looming, we thought the conclusion of Week 9 would be a good opportunity to predict what the committee’s top 12 will look like.
12. Notre Dame (7-2)
The Irish are the only two-loss team to crack this list, but it’s deserved after the gauntlet they’ve run through the first two months of the season. With tough losses to Ohio State and Louisville offset by wins over Duke and USC, Notre Dame has a better record than two-loss LSU or one of the smaller teams with one loss (Missouri can play No. 1 Georgia next week push through). . The Irish are on the road at Clemson next week before hosting Wake Forest and finishing the regular season at Stanford on Nov. 25.
11. Penn State (7-1)
The Nittany Lions will finish outside the top 10 thanks to an offense that has struggled lately. Penn State got a few late gifts from Indiana in a 33-24 win as Drew Allar once again averaged less than seven yards per pass attempt. Penn State’s defense wasn’t great on Saturday, but we’ll give them a pass. The offense needs to pick up steam if Penn State wants to stay in the running for a New Year’s Six bowl game.
10. Ole Miss (7-1)
The Rebels made it easy against Vanderbilt on Saturday and are ahead of Penn State because of their win over LSU. But we’re still not sure what to think of Ole Miss. Is this team just good or is it really good? A 10-2 season seems extremely likely, even if we don’t get an answer to that question. The remaining teams on Ole Miss’ schedule are Texas A&M, Georgia, Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State.
9. Oklahoma (7-1)
The Sooners would hope to finish in the top five with a win at Kansas, but the Jayhawks pulled off the surprise on Saturday. That puts Oklahoma in last place in the top 10 and we expect the Sooners to be ahead of both Penn State and Ole Miss thanks to their win over Texas. Oklahoma was one of the best teams in the country in the first half of the season. The last two games weren’t great. If this is a trend, the Sooners are in trouble in Week 10 at Oklahoma State.
Kansas students climb the goal post and tear it down after the Kansas Jayhawks defeated the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday. (Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports)
8. Alabama (7-1)
The Crimson Tide wasn’t there on Saturday and should be comfortably in the top 10, even if the season hasn’t been smooth sailing so far. The offense is still finding its way, but the defense has lagged. We’ll learn a lot more about Alabama’s offense next week when the defense takes on LSU’s potent offense. Can Alabama compete in a track and field competition? We must be convinced that the answer is yes.
7.Texas (7-1)
We would be amazed if the Longhorns fell behind the Crimson Tide given their straight-up win in Week 2. Texas didn’t need Quinn Ewers in Week 9 with an easy win over BYU. Maalik Murphy committed a freshman error with an interception, but threw two touchdowns to AD Mitchell and the Longhorns rushed for over five yards per carry. Next week, Texas will face a Kansas State team that has won its last two games by a combined score of 82-3.
6. Oregon (7-1)
The Ducks showed they should still be in the playoff conversation with their dominant win over Utah on Saturday. Bo Nix threw two touchdowns and rushed for another as Oregon held the Utes to just 241 yards of total offense. After the way Oregon bounced back from the loss to Washington with a win over Washington State and Saturday’s easy win, it’s difficult to make an argument for another team being ahead of the Ducks with a single loss.
5.Washington (8-0)
The Huskies haven’t been the most convincing team since the win over Oregon. Washington needed a defensive touchdown to beat Arizona State a week ago, and Stanford held close with a 42-33 victory on Saturday. We could easily see Washington edging over Ohio State on Tuesday night, but we think the committee will take note of the last two weeks and side with the Buckeyes in what could be an incredibly close call.
4. Ohio State (8-0)
There’s no point arguing between Ohio State and Washington right now. Washington has plenty of opportunities to climb the rankings in November, and Ohio State still has to play Michigan. At this point, there will be little difference between No. 5 and No. 4. Ohio State beat Wisconsin on Saturday night and Marvin Harrison is the best offensive player in college football who isn’t a QB.
3. Florida State (8-0)
The Seminoles made light work of Wake Forest on Saturday and are in good shape since the bogeys against Boston College and Clemson in September. WR Keon Coleman was one of the best transfer portal additions of the offseason and Jordan Travis will find himself in the Heisman discussion if he continues to play flawless football and Florida State keeps winning. FSU has no teams left in the rankings, but that won’t matter as long as the Seminoles remain undefeated.
2. Michigan (8-0)
We can make a strong case that the Wolverines will be the No. 1 seed on Tuesday night, but ultimately assume they will be the No. 2 seed. Why? We expect that the committee will rely on the strength of the timetable. UNLV, Minnesota and Nebraska are the three best teams Michigan has played so far this season, and it faces a 2-6 Purdue team heading into its trip to Penn State on Nov. 11. And before you ask: No, we don’t think the sign is true. The theft scandal should have influence in the committee.
1. Georgia (8:0)
If Georgia hadn’t convincingly beat Florida on Saturday, we would definitely consider No. 1 seed Michigan in our prediction. But Georgia has won its last three games by a total of 78 points after a seven-point win at Auburn. The Bulldogs didn’t miss a chance on offense without Brock Bowers against the Gators and will have a chance over the next three weeks to solidify their status as the best team in the country against teams that will be in the committee’s rankings on Tuesday night.
Georgia running back Kendall Milton (2) is congratulated by wide receiver Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint (1) after a touchdown on Saturday. (Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports)
Here are the winners and losers of week 9:
winner
Kansas: Kansas secured bowl eligibility and did so in style on Saturday, defeating No. 6 Oklahoma 38-33. It was a back-and-forth game and the Jayhawks took the lead with 55 seconds to play before getting the stop they needed to hand OU its first loss of the season. It was Kansas’ first win over Oklahoma since 1997 and the Jayhawks’ first home win over a top-10 opponent since 1984. Kansas, now 6-2 on the year, is bowl eligible for the second straight season. The last time KU made back-to-back bowl trips was 2007 and 2008. And in the 11 seasons prior to Lance Leipold’s arrival in 2021, the Jayhawks had not had a season with more than three wins. Leipold does an incredible job.
Georgia: The two-time defending champion Bulldogs rushed for 486 yards in a 43-20 win over Florida and got another strong performance from Carson Beck. Beck threw for 315 yards and two touchdowns, with Ladd McConkey (six catches, 135 yards, TD) his top target. At 8-0, this was the first test of a challenging stretch for the Bulldogs that included three consecutive games against ranked teams (Missouri, Ole Miss and Tennessee) over the next three weeks. After the game, Kirby Smart was confident and took a shot at former Florida coach Dan Mullen, now an analyst for ESPN.
Oregon: Oregon kept its CFP hopes alive with a dominant 35-6 road win over Utah to improve to 7-1. Utah had won 18 straight home games before facing the Ducks on Saturday. Oregon scored on its first offensive possession and never let up, comfortably outscoring the two-time defending Pac-12 champions. This was a big win for Oregon in its quest for a rematch with Washington. UW beat the Ducks two weeks ago and the two could be on a crash course for a showdown in the Pac-12 title game.
Louisville: Louisville has a very good path to the ACC title game after a 23-0 win over Duke. In the win, Jawhar Jordan rushed for 163 yards and two touchdowns, while Brock Travelstead kicked three field goals. The defense, meanwhile, limited Duke to just 202 yards of offense and a combined 2 of 14 on third and fourth downs. At 7-1 overall and 4-1 in ACC play, Louisville is one of three ACC teams with just one loss in league play competing against undefeated Florida State for the conference title. That would be a major accomplishment in the first year under Jeff Brohm.
Iowa State: Iowa State is currently tied for first place in the Big 12. Yes, you read that correctly. The Cyclones went 1-2 in non-conference play but have since won four of five games against Big 12 competition. The only loss came a few weeks ago in Oklahoma. Since then, Iowa State has won three straight, including Saturday’s 30-18 road win over Baylor. Iowa State lost several key players in the offseason due to a gambling investigation, including its starting QB. But that hasn’t stopped this Cyclones team from coming together and being one of the bigger surprises in the country. ISU can clinch a bowl berth next week.
Nebraska: Nebraska has quietly recovered from an ugly 0-2 start. The Huskers have won three straight and five of their last six after a 31-14 home win over Purdue on Saturday. The Huskers, now in a four-way tie atop the Big Ten West, appear to be a much more disciplined team with Matt Rhule at the helm and have taken care of business against teams with comparable talent. The Huskers can end their seven-year bowl drought with a road win over Michigan State next weekend.
Virginia Tech: Virginia Tech went 3-8 in its first season under Brent Pry and then lost three of four games to start the 2023 season. After that 1-3 start, however, the Hokies have begun to turn things around. The Hokies defeated Syracuse 38-10 on Thursday night to improve to 4-4 on the year. The Hokies took a 30-3 halftime lead and outgained Syracuse 528 yards to 137 in the win. It was Virginia Tech’s third win in its last four games and now the Hokies have a realistic shot at a bowl game.
loser
North Carolina: UNC’s College Football Playoff hopes faded within two weeks. The Tar Heels started the season 6-0 and rose to No. 10 in the Associated Press Top 25. But now North Carolina is the clear favorite at 6-2 after two straight losses. Last week, UNC lost to Virginia 31-27 at home as a 24-point favorite. This week, UNC traveled to Atlanta to play Georgia Tech as a 12-point favorite and was immediately upset 46-42. UNC held a 42-32 lead in the fourth quarter but allowed the Yellow Jackets to score the final 14 points of the game and secure the win. UNC started 9-1 last year before collapsing down the stretch. The collapse apparently began early this season.
Clemson: Clemson is on track to have its worst season since 2010. The Tigers lost 24-17 at NC State on Saturday and are 4-4 on the year. Clemson lost to Miami in overtime last week and has not lost consecutive regular-season games for the first time since 2011. Additionally, Clemson suffered four regular season losses for the first time since 2010. This was Dabo Swinney’s second season as Clemson’s full-time head coach. They are 7-7 since the Tigers’ 8-0 start last season and will have to fight to reach a bowl game.
Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik and coach Dabo Swinney react after their loss to North Carolina State on Saturday. (Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports)
Kentucky: Kentucky’s season went sideways after such a promising start. The Wildcats were 5-0 and ranked No. 20 in the country, but have lost three straight since then, including the last two in Lexington. Saturday’s loss was a 33-27 decision for Tennessee, and it was a winnable game for UK. The Wildcats’ offense looked much better, but the usually reliable defense was breached for nearly 500 yards and missed far too many tackles at critical moments. The Vols rushed for 254 yards and Joe Milton was far too comfortable in the pocket, completing 17 of his 20 attempts.
UCF: UCF is still looking for its first Big 12 win. The Knights nearly upset Oklahoma on the road last week and followed that with a 41-28 home loss to West Virginia. The transition to the Big 12 was never going to be easy, but UCF is now 0-5 in Big 12 play and is allowing an average of 40.6 points per game in those five losses. And not only did the defense struggle against WVU, but the Knights were doomed by four turnovers, including three interceptions by John Rhys Plumlee.
Maryland: After a 5-0 start, Maryland has lost three straight games. The Terps blew a lead in their loss to Ohio State and then were upset at home against Illinois. After a bye week, a trip to Evanston to play Northwestern seemed like a good opportunity to get back in the win column. Instead, the Terps lost again, losing 33-27 in another ugly effort. The Wildcats entered the game ranked 126th nationally in total offense (299.3 yards per game), but with their backup quarterback they were able to put up 364 yards on the Terps.
Pittsburgh: Pat Narduzzi was a consistent winner at Pitt, but this season was ugly. The Panthers lost 58-7 at Notre Dame on Saturday and are now just 2-6 this season. It was the most lopsided defeat of Narduzzi’s tenure and the coach’s post-match comments went unnoticed sit well with some of his players. The Panthers have only had one losing season during Narduzzi’s tenure (2017). A second losing season is imminent.
Houston: Houston emptied the tank last week and nearly upset Texas at home. This week, UH had to leave the state of Texas for the first time all season to face Kansas State. It was a cold day in Manhattan and the Cougars didn’t handle it well, losing 41-0. Houston never reached the red zone, went a combined 3 of 18 on third and fourth downs and managed to gain just 208 yards in the loss. UH is now 3-5 overall and 1-4 in Big 12 play. Could Dana Holgorsen’s time be running out?