The race for the Colombian presidency has been going on for months on a static podium: the candidate of the left Historic Pact, Gustavo Petro, leads by voting intentions around 40%, while between 20 and 25% lies the right Federico “Fico” Gutiérrez would accompany him to the vote.
With this distance, Fico’s campaign must look to the votes of those who follow him in the polls, businessman Rodolfo Hernández and centrist Sergio Fajardo. In the expected second round, which will take place on June 19, the campaign is to be articulated as a referendum for or against Petro. His eventual victory would form the first all-left government in Colombia’s entire history.
Presidential candidate Federico Gutiérrez speaks during an event in Bogotá. Photo: ReutersA recent poll further complicates the right. Petro maintains his lead at 40% while Fico reaches 23.9%. Little by little, Rodolfo Hernández, who seems to be the surprise of the campaign, is approaching with a worrying 21.9%, while Sergio Fajardo drops to 4.5%. The remaining candidates – John Rodríguez and Enrique Gómez – do not reach 2%.
Earlier in the month, when the situation between Hernández and Fajardo was more contentious, both candidates had visited each other and started talks with a view to a possible alliance, as together it was easier to reach the second round and beat Fico. Eventually, this union was expelled, and with a week to go before the election, things are becoming increasingly difficult: the candidate of the Centro Esperanza, Sergio Fajardo, assured that for the time being “both are campaigning”. “We have spoken, we have a good personal relationship and we are united in the fight against corruption. But I’m focused on my campaign and he’s on his. He will present his proposals, his ideas to change the country and I am fighting this way because this month is crucial and we will not let ourselves be distracted,” said the Medellín native.
Political scientist at the Universidad de los Andes in Colombia, Felipe Botero, commented on these speculations: “Both Fajardo and Hernández have indicated that their political paths are distant from each other. Fajardo was reluctant to form alliances with other candidates outside his coalition. Hernández was much more radical: he has said that he will not form alliances with anyone and that is part of his underdog position. He says that he is who he is and that he doesn’t want to join the traditional political class, and that would be a betrayal of what he claims to represent.
Rodolfo Hernández, former mayor of Bucaramanga and candidate for the presidency of Colombia. Photo: APIn this context, the emergence of the “little old man of TikTok”, the millionaire Rodolfo Hernández, has exactly what Fico lacks: novelty and difference from previous governments. The right-wing leader of the anti-corruption Governors League comes to the running with a simple message: end corruption in a country where 80% believe it is the biggest problem.
At age 77, Hernández’s candidacy focused on social media, Betty la Fea memes and parodies of Rosalía’s songs. His proposals include “major budget cuts,” including ending the use of presidential planes and helicopters, and even donating the money he gets as president, claiming he doesn’t need the money “because I’ve already worked for it.” . His political experience is not as extensive as that of his opponents: he was elected mayor of Bucaramanga in 2015.
“Unlike Fajardo, who already has a regional political career behind him and has been a constant presence in national politics several times as a candidate, Rodolfo Hernández bursts in. In that sense, he is a typical outsider who bursts into political life, and as an outsider he has the advantage of being very innovative, generating a set of reflections based on pure political pragmatism and he has the cumulative advantage of being successful to be businessman. Therefore, regardless of his ideological and personal certification, the truth is that he clearly reflects the values of entrepreneurship, free trade, free enterprise and individual initiative: that is, the typical liberal values of western democracy,” says Vicente Torrijos, professor of Strategic Affairs at the Colombian War Academy.
Seen as an outsider by many, one of the things the Santander native has to do with is presenting himself as a businessman who has made a fortune from his work. “He presents himself as a person who’s built up and who’s upright and who likes straight things, and that’s the kind of voters he calls: voters who like his confidence, who like his openness or the refreshing positions he takes takes,” says Botero.
Sergio Fajardo at an event during the downtown primaries. Photo: AFPGiven the rise of Hernández, Sergio Fajardo’s candidacy is in a steady decline: if a few months ago the polls gave him between 10% and 15%, the last ones this week already put him closer to the Fund’s candidates than to the ballot box. In 2018, Fajardo finished third in the presidential elections behind Gustavo Petro and Iván Duque.
Like Fico, Fajardo was mayor of Medellín, both have the same political origins in the Liberal Party and even a certain physical resemblance brings them closer. However, Fajardo is a centrist candidate and that could mean a run from voters for Gutiérrez should he reach the second round. “The two agreed on many points when they were in charge of Medellín, but there is an important ideological distance. Fajardo has distanced himself from the right, Fajardo has built his political career in the middle, presented himself as a social democratic man who wants to govern for a broader public,” said Botero.
“The real differentiating factor is the ideological one: Fico Gutiérrez is associated in a very clear way and does not hide his center-right profile, while Fajardo suffers from the syndrome of always being in the center and sometimes he is not characterized or identified well, and that’s why he doesn’t take sides,” says Torrijos. According to the professor of strategic affairs, Fajardo’s lukewarmness could become his greatest weakness: “When the country is so polarized, although the country has been polarized for almost the whole century, but where the possibilities that the radical left that came to power are like that high that the last thing a Colombian wants to think about is hesitation, ambiguity or stuttering or shyness. What a Colombian wants now more than ever is a candidate with very defined aspirations, with very specific options for solving problems, and with a very specific ideological catalog.”