Colonel Markus Reisner of the Theresian Military Academy sees historic symbolism in Putin’s declaration that the war should be decided in May. On May 9, Russia annually celebrates its victory over Nazi Germany.
According to Colonel Markus Reisner, the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Kiev metropolitan area is intended to encircle and destroy a large part of the Ukrainian armed forces in the east. Instead of attacking on four fronts, a decision must now be made focusing on Donbass. The restructuring of Russian troops, which began ten days ago, is expected to be completed this weekend.
The distance to be covered for the necessary Russian troop movements is about 1,000 kilometers. This should take about ten days. At the start of the war, about 40% of Ukraine’s ground forces were in the area now targeted by Russia between the Donbass and the Dnieper River, head of the development department at the Theresian Military Academy.
Blitzkrieg failed
Russia announced the change in strategy at a Ministry of Defense briefing on March 25. The Russian description of the situation received little media attention, but it actually marked a turning point, explains Reisner. The originally intended “blitzkrieg”, including the beheading attack, failed and after almost 30 days of the so-called “security operation”, the Russian general staff realized that 200,000 troops would not be enough to achieve the targets set at the same time. “And the Ukrainians learned from 2014. At that time, they tried to stop the Russians on the border and suffered devastating losses because they had no chance against the overwhelming Russian artillery and tank units that were rapidly advancing the country and fought their supply line in depth. . They practically cut off the supply tap for the Russian tanks.”
In 2014, on the Ukrainian national holiday, August 24, Russia invaded. This time, the Russians apparently relied on historical symbolism again. Reisner believes the “victory at Donbass” is set for May 9. On this day, Russia traditionally celebrates the Day of Victory over Nazi Germany with a grand parade. President Vladimir Putin indicated in a statement that the war could end in May. That would mean the Russians have exactly one month from now to make a decision in eastern Ukraine.
According to the expert, Russia is trying to encircle and destroy Ukrainian forces east of the Dnieper. Coming from the north, the pincers are made up of the approximately 50,000 men who have been evacuated from the Kiev area and the troops that are forming in the south north of Mariupol. This Russian objective can also be seen by the fact that the Russian armed forces have carried out massive air strikes against Ukrainians in this area in recent days and have tried to destroy supply lines. In Kharkiv and Cherson, on the other hand, the Russian fronts are being stabilized and secured.
The Ukrainians, for their part, are trying to strengthen their forces in the east, “but they have only limited resources”. “If, despite everything, the East becomes unsustainable, they must endeavor to move their forces back in an orderly manner across the Dnieper River and form a strong new line of defense there. The next few weeks are therefore crucial. “
Ukraine lacks heavy offensive weapons
The fact that they don’t have heavy offensive weapons is still difficult for Ukrainians, says Reisner. Even if the West were to send main battle tanks now, transporting them from Britain to the Eastern Front in Ukraine, for example, would take 14 days. A few days ago, a train loaded with tanks from the Czech Republic was announced to the Ukrainians.
An ideal outcome for Russia would be to capture the entire coastal area from Odessa on the Black Sea to Mariupol on the Sea of Azov. These are the two main ports in Ukraine. About 70% of all Ukrainian exports and imports (including 98% of grain exports) are made by sea. Losing access to the sea would be catastrophic for Ukraine, as it would become a landlocked country. For the time being, however, the Russians have not been able to reach Odessa by land. That is, the military capture of the city of Mikolayiv, or the crossing of the Bug River, is necessary for the attack by land. So far this has not been successful. This city has been bombed for weeks, but it still hasn’t fallen.
(APA/DPA)