US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing last week. (Leah Millis/Associated Press)
When Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken traveled to Beijing last week to try to restore strained relations between the United States and China, both sides kept expectations low.
For months, the two superpowers have been at odds over a variety of issues: the alleged Chinese spy balloon that passed over the United States in February, US attempts to block China from advanced semiconductor technology, and military near-misses at sea and in the air.
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Both countries agreed that they must prevent the rivalry from escalating into open conflict and “lay a foundation for relations” — and that’s exactly what President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping said eight months ago done at a summit meeting. This floor didn’t stay built – hence the call for a handyman last week.
By this humble standard, Blinken succeeded. The floor has been patched but it’s still pretty wobbly.
The foreign minister asked for more frequent meetings, and that’s what he got. But he also called for direct exchanges between the two countries’ military leaders, a priority he described as “hugely important” — and the Chinese flatly refused. And Xi delayed action over a demand that should have been even simpler: curbing the Chinese-made chemicals that help manufacture the killer drug fentanyl.
“It’s good that they realize that when the relationship goes into dangerous territory, they need to talk,” said Bates Gill, China expert at the Asia Society in New York. “But talking will still be very difficult.”
Striving for peaceful coexistence still looks accident-prone. Just a day after Blinken left Beijing, Biden sparked a brief uproar when he told donors Xi was unaware of the alleged spy balloon, which he described as “a major embarrassment.” [a] Dictator.” A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman called the remark “absurd and irresponsible.”
The underlying problem, which runs deeper than any Biden blip, is that the two countries not only have different goals; They look at the world from different perspectives.
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According to Xi, China is on the way to its rightful role as Asia’s dominant country and the world’s leading economic powerhouse, while the United States is a nation in decline.
US officials understandably do not believe this narrative. They rightly argue that China has bullied its smaller neighbors, stolen Western technology and engaged in unfair trade practices.
Even when trying to bridge these differences, the two governments often manage to talk past one another.
When Biden entered the White House in 2021, his staff were trying to find a useful, perhaps benign, framework for their dealings with China. As Blinken put it, “We will confidently compete, cooperate when we can and confront when we must.”
The Chinese hated it.
“They understand ‘competition’ to mean there’s a winner and a loser,” Gil said. “They think our version of the competition is about America winning and China losing.”
Aside from these differences, several major disagreements between the two countries are likely to be unresolvable for the foreseeable future.
China believes it has an inalienable right to take over Taiwan; The United States has long been committed to helping the independent island defend itself.
Xi’s economic ambitions focus on making China a high-tech giant; Biden believes US security requires stopping Beijing from advanced semiconductor technology.
Add to that the Biden administration’s success in forging alliances with other countries – including India, whose Prime Minister Narendra Modi was hailed at the White House last week – and the European Union, despite being China’s largest economic partner.
Xi’s regime hasn’t been very good at making friends. China’s only real allies are Russia and North Korea.
All of these factors make it difficult to find room for US-China cooperation, even if it should be relatively easy.
For example, Blinken’s request for military contacts to prevent accidental conflict fell on deaf ears because the Chinese feared it was a trap.
“They don’t want to approach the issue from the standpoint of international law because that could give us the right to fly or sail where they don’t want us,” said Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund. “If it were safe for us to operate these flights, they would consider it a win for us.”
The clearest outcome of Blinken’s trip will be a visit by Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang to Washington – and, with luck, a meeting between Biden and Xi in San Francisco in the fall.
But their agenda will be known: They want to reduce the likelihood of a US-China conflict by fixing the same rickety floorboards over and over again.
This story originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times.