CNN –
President Joe Biden over the weekend appealed for urgent U.S. support to strengthen Ukraine and Israel in times of war, saying the world is facing a “tipping point” that could set the course for the next generation.
But on Capitol Hill, the prospects for such an aid package for the two countries appear as bleak as ever.
“We may not have a supplement,” Sen. John Kennedy, a Republican from Louisiana, said matter-of-factly of the national security package stalled in Congress if one The immigration dispute could not be resolved.
Unlike other cases where Congress tends to quickly approve urgently needed aid, lawmakers from both parties are now openly questioning whether an emergency package for Israel and Ukraine can even be put together. There is major disagreement in the House and Senate over whether to continue supporting Ukraine – and now the stubborn issue of immigration policy has moved to the center of discussions.
Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer want to maintain funding for the two countries in one large package – a position opposed by new Speaker Mike Johnson, whose bill that would only provide funding to Israel in addition to IRS cuts was rejected by the Democrats in the Senate quickly rejected it. Johnson has continued to insist that any emergency package must include spending cuts to offset the price tag, a complicated task and a demand rarely made by party leaders because it could stall much-needed funding.
Senate Minority Leaders Mitch McConnell and Johnson insist that GOP support for more funding for Ukraine is contingent Tightening immigration laws amid growing concerns about security at the border with Mexico. But finding an immigration deal that satisfies House Republicans — and doesn’t lead to a full-scale revolt on the left — seems highly unlikely at best, lawmakers acknowledge.
“I think it’s a triple chance to do something we haven’t done in 40 years to help fund Ukraine,” said Sen. Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat who serves on the immigration negotiating group .
“I still think the chances of success are not great,” Murphy said, adding that talks are continuing but he is “no” confident that an agreement can be reached.
A source familiar with the talks insists that progress is being made and that face-to-face discussions on the Hill last week were productive. But Republicans have pushed for a border deal that Democrats say too closely mirrors House Republican immigration legislation, which included resuming construction of former President Donald Trump’s border wall and other measures rejected by most Senate Democrats .
The White House’s funding request in October included $13.6 billion in additional funding for the border, which would allow the U.S. to hire an additional 1,300 Border Patrol agents and 1,600 asylum officers who could help speed up the processing of migrants with asylum claims .
But Republicans insist they need more than just funding at the border. They want sweeping policy changes, including revamping the way migrants apply for asylum in the United States.
One idea is to raise the credible fear standard for seeking asylum so that it would be more difficult for migrants to apply for asylum status in the first place. Some Republicans argue that this process is being abused and leading to a large influx at the southern border.
A group of Senate Republicans, including Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and James Lankford of Oklahoma, also released policy changes they wanted to see earlier this month. That included an overhaul of how the Biden administration manages parolees and would require families to be detained together in Department of Homeland Security custody.
“We still have to overcome this fundamental hurdle,” said North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, one of the GOP negotiators. “Our members are desperate for something measurable. They do not trust the administration to carry out implementation based solely on funding provisions. We need provisions that have the effect of law so that they are enforced.”
The White House request also included more than $61 billion in aid for Ukraine, more than $14 billion for Israel and $7.4 billion for Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region.
Graham, the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee and a staunch supporter of more aid to Ukraine, told CNN late last week that an agreement on immigration “is a long way off.”
“I have one goal: (It) is to keep people from coming,” Graham said. “And if that’s not the Democrats’ goal, then we’re not going to get it done.”
An uncertain path in the House of Representatives and divisions over Israel
Senate negotiators say they are trying to keep the parameters of an immigration negotiation narrow, knowing that a comprehensive approach would only further complicate passage of Ukraine aid. But a narrow plan could face strong backlash from House Republicans, who have made border security and tougher immigration laws a centerpiece of their calls for legislative action.
Johnson has so far signaled his openness to aid to Ukraine as long as border security is managed to his satisfaction. But he has not yet spelled out exactly what he would agree to in return for providing Ukraine aid.
Far-right Republicans are warning Johnson not to accept an immigration deal they say is too weak in exchange for aid to Ukraine, which faces dwindling GOP support in the House.
Texas Rep. Chip Roy, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, told CNN last week that an immigration deal he said was watered down would mean “strike three” for the new speaker – after Johnson criticized his right flank over his decision to extend government funding until early next year without spending cuts.
Roy added that the speaker would face a revolt if he “fails to move the actual border security and then tries to claim that you did – if anything happens in terms of trying to do something on the back of Ukraine ( Help) and then claims that it is to ensure security. “Limit when this is not the case.” He added: “That will be an unacceptable result.”
Some hardliners have warned even more forcefully, saying Johnson should abandon aid to Ukraine entirely.
“I know that people, especially MAGA, especially the Republican base, are going to be absolutely furious with our new speaker if he ties Ukraine’s money, billions and billions more, to border security,” Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor told Greene CNN. “And our spokesman will tell the Americans that Ukraine is on the same level as the American border? No way. They won’t like it.”
Greene said a recent conversation with the speaker did little to satisfy her. “He tried to urge me, ‘Oh, we need to get some wins for our border, Marjorie.’ But I don’t buy it.”
But Biden is also under pressure on the left – because of Israel. While polls show Democratic support slipping over the way Israel wages its war against Hamas, some progressives like Sen. Bernie Sanders want aid to Israel to come with strict conditions.
Sanders, an independent from Vermont, has released an extensive list of demands on the Israeli government to win U.S. financial support. These demands include “an end to indiscriminate bombings,” a “right of displaced people in Gaza to return to their homes,” “a halt to settlement expansion” in the West Bank, and no long-term occupation of the Gaza Strip by Israeli forces as an obligation to participate in peace talks .
This has led to resistance within the ranks.
“The condition of aid to Israel will have only one result: it would help Hamas in its goal of completely destroying Israel and the Jewish people. It would weaken America’s national security and our fight against terror,” said Rep. Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey, a prominent Jewish Democrat. “Any legislation that conditions security assistance to our key democratic ally Israel is a non-starter and will lose dozens of votes.”
Other Democrats agree.
“We don’t need conditions on military aid to Israel,” said Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, a freshman Democrat.
The Biden administration and some Republicans on the Hill have argued that aid to Ukraine only strengthens U.S. security. And the administration has tried to convey to international partners that the U.S. will stand with Ukraine as it continues its fight to preserve its democracy. On Monday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin visited Ukraine and told officials there that “the United States of America stands with you.”
“We will remain loyal to you in the long term. What happened here in Ukraine is important not only for Ukraine, but also for the rest of the world. It’s definitely important to the United States of America,” Austin said.
But there are no guarantees that Congress can find a path forward, as U.S. officials have warned that funding for Ukraine is nearly exhausted.
“We are currently having to make difficult decisions about the security assistance packages we provide to Ukraine because we are nearing the end of the line and Ukraine remains engaged in an active, dynamic fight on this front,” National spokesman John Kirby said White House Security Council.