A scenario with Donald Trump back in the White House and in a world with the Russian threat, the rise of China and the worst war scenario in half a century seriously worries NATO and its allies. The insinuation by the former US president – and possible Republican candidate for the November presidential election – that the US he leads would not defend an ally that invests little in defense casts doubt on Article 5 of the alliance which states that an attack on one partner is considered an attack on everyone and this requires helping him or her. All this comes at a time when several European countries have warned that Russia could try to undermine NATO in the next decade and even test that guarantee of collective security with an attack on one of the 31 allies. France called on Europeans this Monday to prepare for the possible return of the populist Republican to the White House.
“I will not stop convincing all leaders of the relevance of our alliance, which benefits everyone, including the United States,” said French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné this Monday. “Every minute counts to prepare Europeans for the shock of a scenario outlined by Donald Trump and we will work together to analyze the context, especially the US elections,” he added. The EU's High Representative for Foreign Policy and Security, Josep Borrell, commented ironically on Trump's comments. “NATO cannot be an à la carte military alliance… depending on the mood of the US President,” he noted this Monday.
Trump's words “call into question the credibility” of the US as an ally, says Michal Baranowski, director of the German Marshall Fund for the East. This expert also points out that the former president changed reality, stating that 2% of GDP that allies pledged for defense spending – highlighted by Wales' pledge in 2014 – was actually paid to Washington and are presented as “defaulters”. to allies who have not adopted this post. “That’s not how the alliance works,” Baranowski remarks on the phone. “France, Germany and Poland must open the debate on what to do in the face of a possible Trump presidency, both in terms of support for Ukraine and in terms of European security and defense,” he added.
'The Three Musketeers'
“NATO's philosophy is similar to that of the Three Musketeers,” said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk this Monday in Paris, before having lunch with French President Emmanuel Macron – who had long ago relegated his 2019 speech to speech , in which he asserted that the alliance was “brain dead.” ”-. On Sunday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg responded to Trump's comments with the rare accusation of “undermining the security” of the allies.
For weeks, several allied defense ministers have been warning about the Russian threat to NATO, as two years have passed since the Kremlin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and it has become increasingly clear that the war on the eastern flank between the alliance and the EU is becoming take a long time. The latest was Danish Defense Minister Troles Lund Poulsen a few days ago, who called on the citizens of the Nordic country to prepare for a difficult phase. “It cannot be ruled out that within three to five years Russia will put Article 5 and NATO solidarity to the test,” the Danish minister said, stressing that his comments were motivated by “new information.”
Join EL PAÍS to follow all the news and read without restrictions.
Subscribe to
Similar comments were made by Germany, Romania, Estonia, Belgium and Sweden, a country that asked to join the transatlantic organization after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and is waiting for Hungary – which has not yet ratified its accession, although it has The leaders said it would not be the last country to approve it.
“We hear threats from the Kremlin almost every day and must therefore expect that Vladimir Putin could even attack a NATO country,” said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius at the end of January. “For now,” this scenario is not likely, he said in an interview with Tagesspiegel, in which he emphasized that German experts believe that this possibility could occur “within a period of five to eight years,” and emphasized how important it is it is to prepare for it. “in the military, social and military defense areas.” Meanwhile, Rob Bauer, chairman of the NATO Military Committee, said the alliance was facing the “most dangerous world in decades” and called for a “military transformation of NATO.”
Similar reviews
Trump's comments are similar to those he made in 2017 during his White House tenure, when he became the scourge of allies who failed to meet the 2% of GDP in military spending that marked the Wales commitment (agreed in 2014). also handles other variables, such as B. Investments in skills). But this time, this loud imitation comes at a very complicated time, when EU partners also fear being left alone in their support for Ukraine, a candidate country for the Community Club. And that's even more true if Trump, who had a complicated relationship with the country, returns – a conversation with Zelensky in which he blackmailed him by blocking military aid unless they investigated Joe Biden's son's dealings in Ukraine, led to his first impeachment in 2019 – and who is perceived as someone who is in line with Putin.
Camille Grand, security and defense specialist at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), believes Trump's comments increase uncertainty at a very sensitive moment, highlighting the former president's “unpredictability” and the fact that he appears to be introducing a transactional element in NATO and its member protection umbrella. “And when that happens, it is very complicated to have an unpredictable ally,” he emphasizes. Like Baranowski, Grand – a senior NATO official from 2016 to 2022 – believes it is time for European allies to ask themselves whether they could adapt to an organization in which the United States has less of a presence.
NATO has not changed its alert level and some diplomatic sources indicate that the latest warnings are aimed at alerting citizens to the need to increase defense spending. Also that the situation with Russia will not improve and would remain that way in the most optimistic scenario. However, the fact that the Kremlin has increased its military equipment production capacity so quickly is a matter of great concern. By contrast, Europe's defense industry, a sector that many allies had neglected until Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine two years ago, is making slow progress. Allied sources point out that the election campaign in the United States and Trump's profile will further intensify the debate over the 2% of military spending, which is currently only achieved by 11 countries (Spain is at 1.26%): Poland, the United States, Greece, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Hungary, Latvia, United Kingdom and Slovakia.
But since 2014, the year of Russia's invasion of Crimea, which annexed the Ukrainian peninsula in an illegal referendum, all allies have significantly increased their military spending. Especially since 2022, the year of the large-scale invasion. Only three countries have cut this budget in 2023 compared to nine years earlier (and none of them are from the EU): the United States, Turkey and the United Kingdom, according to the latest NATO report.
Follow all international information on Facebook and Xor in our weekly newsletter.
Subscribe to continue reading
Read without limits
_