It’s not the balance of power that was announced.
Posted at 5:00 am
Shortly before the last election, François Legault sought a strong mandate to reduce federal powers.
Basically, he couldn’t have wished for anything better. His majority of 90 MPs is overwhelming, he is the country’s most popular prime minister1 and he faces a worn-out Liberal minority government at the federal level.
And yet little has changed.
Examining the various files closely, one observation comes back: it is Mr. Legault who needs Justin Trudeau, and not the opposite. It was evident when they met at a coffee shop in Old Montreal on Tuesday.
Mr Legault has shown in the past that it can be circumvented. In 2021, Mr Trudeau won despite his call to block the Liberals and New Democrats and he now governs with the support of Jagmeet Singh.
The Conservatives took notes. Their new leader, Pierre Poilievre, doesn’t appear to want to inherit the “contract with Quebecers” from his predecessor Erin O’Toole. His strategy is more akin to that of Jason Kenney, who courted cultural communities in 2011 by telling them that conservatives were defending their values of ownership and respect for tradition. However, Mr. Poilievre has more affinity for Éric Duhaime, a bitter rival of the Caquistes.
The Bloc Québécois remains the sister party of the Parti Québécois and, despite what became clear during the 2019 election campaign, conveys the consensus of the National Assembly rather than the positions of the CAQ government.
In short, Mr. Legault lacks friends. Like it or not, he and Justin Trudeau are doomed to love each other.
In terms of health, the negotiations are dragging on as usual. At least we know how they will end: With the provinces begging, the federal government will decide.
Quebec also seems powerless when it comes to immigration. Last spring, Mr Legault wanted the federal government to put him in charge of the family reunification program to block those who didn’t speak French. Not surprisingly, Ottawa refused to tear families apart, especially since the language impact would have been minimal.
Mr Legault has since refocused his claims.
He regrets that Quebec’s weight in the country will continue to decline due to Mr. Trudeau’s plan to increase its population by 260% by the end of the century. This demographic revolution was decided without public consultation, without regard for the French and without critical reflection from new democrats and conservatives in the face of challenges, particularly in relation to housing.
Quebec also finds itself with the Roxham Road bill. Due to a geographic coincidence, the vast majority of irregular immigrants now end up there. And because of bureaucratic delays, asylum seekers wait more than a year for their work permits and then at least another year before they know if they will be accepted as refugees. For them it is cruel. And for Quebec, it’s costly — it ends up with most of the bill for welfare and various social services. Every year he has to negotiate with the federal government for a refund.
For French, Mr. Legault is also relegated to the applicant role. His new reform provides that companies under federal jurisdiction (banking, maritime and air transport) are subject to Bill 101. Of the 400 companies affected, around 30 do not yet comply with the directive. In their defense, they find themselves in a tricky position – they must respect two laws that contradict each other. It is up to the Trudeau government to clear up these ambiguities. Despite requests from all parties in the House of Commons, the Liberal leader hesitated because his MPs were opposed to additional protections for French.
Other cases seem less complicated.
Temporary immigration will be easier to reform. Mr Legault could use the current Canada-Quebec agreement to finally prioritize French-speaking students and universities.
The federal government is already making its contribution to the infrastructure. Mr. Trudeau has just agreed to maintain his funding share in the event of cost overruns.
Before Quebec demands more money, it should use the entire federal public transit envelope. Almost 2.7 of the 7.3 billion offered were not spent! The deadline: April 2023. If Quebec doesn’t speed up approval of its projects, it’s wasted almost $3 billion.
Mr. Trudeau is very polite in other matters. He avoids talking about the carbon market in Quebec-California. This once avant-garde system has become lax due to its too low price for pollution. And he avoids criticizing the third link too head-on, even as all indications are that the project is ineligible for ongoing federal funding, let alone the environmental study that it may threaten.
Mr. Trudeau met Mr. Legault. When he talks to her about economics, the current flows. The agreements are being finalized quickly, as we have seen for aviation and internet in the regions.
Your relationship is not bad. They just have nothing to do with what Mr Legault was hoping for in the last election campaign.
The dynamic isn’t driven so much by the personality or popularity of the characters. What is at work is the usual federal balance of power. And it always pulls in the same direction.
1 According to a survey conducted by Angus Reid* in early December, Mr Legault achieved a satisfaction rate of 57%, the best in the country, statistically tied with Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe (56%).