Jordan has been a key mediator in the Middle East conflict with Egypt for decades, but sentiment toward refugees has also noticeably changed in these two countries, despite all the current aid and mediation. During his visit to Berlin this week, King Abdullah of Jordan spoke very clearly against Egypt or Jordan accepting any more Palestinian refugees. This is a “red line”.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi also strongly warned against plans to bring Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Egypt during his conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. “Egypt rejects the idea that the Palestinian issue will be resolved only militarily or that there will be a mass exodus,” he said. He warned of demonstrations and unrest in his own country. Scholz said during the meetings that help must be provided to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip itself.
Sisi insists on a political solution
Sisi spoke out in favor of a political solution: “Palestinians have the right to establish their independent country, within the 1967 borders and with East Jerusalem as its capital.” result in a direct military conflict between Egypt and Israel. Egypt has long fought Islamic extremists in the Sinai Peninsula.
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Egypt’s role under scrutiny
The background to the rejection is the fears expressed by Sisi that Israel wants to push people south of the area and even further – in this case to Egypt – calling for the evacuation of northern Gaza. Apparently, Sisi also fears that, despite all his willingness to help, the flight of Palestinians could minimize his claim to the area.
Already millions of Palestinian refugees
Millions of Palestinian refugees already live in Jordan and Lebanon. According to data from the refugee agency UNHCR and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), 2.4 million Palestinian refugees registered by UNRWA live in Jordan. 490 thousand are registered in Lebanon and another 580 thousand in Syria. In Gaza itself, it is estimated that around one million people are fleeing or have been displaced, half of whom live in UNRWA facilities.
However, registration with UNRWA is not mandatory, as ORF.at said when asked. Births, deaths and possible migration to another country often go unreported. In its own 2017 census, Lebanon counted 174,000 Palestinians in the country, almost half of whom lived in one of the twelve refugee camps. UNRWA itself assumes that around 250,000 Palestinian refugees currently live in Lebanon.
According to the UNHCR, the ratio of refugees to citizens in Lebanon is currently one in eight, even without Palestinian refugees already in the country. According to UNHCR, Lebanon is in second place in the world. The real number of refugees who are not registered could be even higher. Lebanon has welcomed around 1.5 million people from Syria over the past decade, putting pressure on the country’s infrastructure, economy and social system.
Lebanon is strengthening its position in relation to refugees
According to humanitarian aid organizations, the Lebanese government has recently stepped up its pace against Syrian refugees, for example, with an increase in deportations. Lebanon is currently going through a huge economic crisis and many people in this small Mediterranean country live in hardship. The crisis is attributed, among other things, to decades of corruption. Some politicians blame refugees from neighboring Syria for the situation.
Middle East expert on the situation in Israel
The war that reignited after Hamas’ Palestinian terrorist attack on Israel is spreading to other border areas. Middle East expert Marcus Schneider from the Friedrich Ebert Foundation joined us from Beirut and provided a current assessment of the situation.
Additionally, there is the pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, which has been involved in ongoing battles with the Israeli military on the border. The militia also repeatedly fires rockets at Israel. Hezbollah has already declared that it will open another front to Israel as soon as Israel launches a ground offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Middle East expert Marcus Schneider of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation said in an interview with ZIB2.
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Hamas: terrorist organization and sole ruler of Gaza
Although the militia has been weakened by the war in Syria, it may feel politically and strategically compelled to enter the conflict if Hamas is weakened, Schneider said. Basically, there is a great fear of escalation or destabilization in the region, as in addition to the rapprochement between Israel and the Arab states, there is also a lot of solidarity between the respective populations and the Palestinians.
This also explains the demonstrations in recent days with hundreds of thousands of participants, said the Middle East expert. Israel’s vision is also different in the region itself; it is seen as a kind of colonial state, and what is happening in Gaza is seen as a kind of “collective punishment” for people who already live poor and miserable lives. Germany called on its citizens to leave Lebanon on Thursday night.
Palestinians spread widely
The theme of flight and expulsion has been in the collective memory of Palestinians and has been linked to their own identity for decades. More recently, UNRWA counted a total of 5.9 million registered Palestinian refugees or displaced people, in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, but also in Gaza and the West Bank. Many fled further, to the West or to other Arab states.
Since the first armed conflict within the framework of the division of Palestine and the founding of the State of Israel, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have been on the run and, in some cases, even before that. In 1948, more than 700,000 Palestinian Arabs fled and many hundreds of thousands would follow. At that time, Israel refused to allow Arab refugees to return; Some of the Palestinian refugees in Arab countries still live to this day as stateless people in refugee camps.
The war can last years
Egypt probably also fears that history will repeat itself and that refugees will not be able to return to Gaza after the end of the conflict. The country itself hosts large numbers of refugees and migrants, with hundreds of thousands of people arriving from Sudan this year alone.
Jordan is struggling with tensions within its own country, which also arise due to numerous Palestinians who have been integrated over the past few decades. The Jordanian king, writes Gudrun Harrer in the “Standard”, must fear for his supremacy in his own country.
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People in the Gaza Strip with no way out
Furthermore, it is currently not entirely clear how the conflict might end. Israel says it wants to completely destroy the Hamas terrorist organization’s infrastructure in Gaza – what should or could happen is unclear. More recently, it was said that Palestinians who followed Israel’s call to leave northern Gaza for the south could return later.
The question is to what extent this will be possible. The destruction is already massive because Hamas has strategically positioned its infrastructure in such a way that civilians also suffer from the destruction. It is also unclear when this might happen. Sisi suggested that Israel could initially accommodate refugees in the Negev desert on its own territory.