By Georgina Rannard & Esme Stallard
BBC News Climate and Science
Last November, world leaders met at the UN climate summit COP26 in Glasgow to agree on the next steps to tackle climate change.
But climate experts have told the BBC progress has been slow in 2022 – with governments around the world distracted by global energy and financial crises.
Last week the UN warned that the world was heading for catastrophe. But there are bright spots — including a new US law and a change in government in Brazil that could reverse the destruction of the Amazon rainforest.
As leaders head to Egypt for COP27 next week, we look at seven key players to ask who is leading and who is lagging behind.
Your device may not support this visualization
USA: Another climate leader?
The US took a huge leap forward this year when it passed sweeping new legislation to combat climate change.
Measures under the Inflation Reduction Act could reduce US greenhouse gas emissions – the gases that warm the atmosphere – by 40% by 2030.
“This is the largest investment in climate solutions in US history. It’s a huge sign of progress,” Dan Lashof, US director of the World Resources Institute, told BBC News.
The bill aims to make green energy the standard in key sectors such as electricity, transport and industry. The most obvious result for consumers is a tax credit of around $7,500 (£6,500) for those who buy an electric car.
And in response to the energy crisis, President Joe Biden has rolled out 15 million barrels of oil from reserves and approved new oil and gas well leases.
Image source, Getty Images
The US has also not provided its fair share of funding to help developing countries hardest hit by climate change, which could damage relations at COP27.
UK: guidance and “dithering”
The UK hosted COP26, secured important global commitments and emerged as a clear international climate leader.
But Britain will go to COP27 “weaker” with “disappointing” leadership, says Alyssa Gilbert, director of policy at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute.
On Wednesday Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reversed his earlier decision not to go to Egypt due to other priorities – experts say this has compromised the UK.
“One of the most important things about the COP is political leadership from the top. The tremors towards the Prime Minister are worse in a year when we are the Presidents of the COP,” explains Ms Gilbert.
Image source, Getty Images
And the UK has not upped its ambition to address its role in climate change, according to a Climate Action Tracker analysis of plans submitted to the UN. (These are known as Nationally Determined Contributions – part of the landmark Paris Agreement, in which countries pledged to regularly increase their ambition to tackle climate change).
The global energy crisis also prompted the UK to backtrack on its commitments to halt new oil and gas production in the North Sea and to close coal-fired power plants.
These changes may not fundamentally alter Britain’s energy balance – but they “send the wrong signal,” explains Robert Falkner, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics.
EU: squeezed by Russia
The European Union has historically been progressive in tackling climate change, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its impact on Europe’s energy supply have undermined this.
“Executives have lengthened the lifeline of coal-fired power plants, and we estimate that European emissions actually increased by about 2% in the first six months of this year,” says Prof. Robert Falkner.
Climate Action Tracker now rates the EU’s climate goals, policies and funding as “inadequate” and the EU has not updated the UN with new NDC plans.
But Prof Falkner sees the return to fossil fuel investments as a “temporary setback” and suggests the EU could use this opportunity to make itself energy secure by investing in renewable energy.
A new plan, the REPowerEU plan, aims to increase the EU’s share of renewable energy from 40% to 45% by 2030.
India: Big ambitions hampered by coal
India is one of the few countries to have published updated climate targets for 2022.
“It’s almost impossible to talk about India without talking about progress,” says Kamya Choudhary of the London School of Economics.
It promises to reduce emissions intensity by 45% by 2030 – meaning it plans to reduce emissions per dollar. In addition, 50% of the installed energy should be renewable.
Professor Navroz Dubash of the Center for Public Policy and UN climate adviser told the BBC tariffs on coal help pay for vital infrastructure and the loss of that income needs to be offset.
Image source, Gautum Dey/AFP caption,
Workers prepare to load coal at the Jharia coalfield in Dhanbad, Jharkhand state, India
However, as in other countries, Mr Choudary suggests that this is a short-term measure that should be duplicated with the energy crisis.
According to Climate Action Tracker, India’s pledges are not very ambitious – they could be met with limited government action.
Brazil: New President, New Hope?
Brazil holds one of the keys to combating climate change – its vast Amazon rainforest, the planet’s lungs, absorbs vast amounts of carbon.
In a dramatic election last week, President Jair Bolsonaro was ousted by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – potentially changing the future of the Amazon overnight. “Brazil is ready to reclaim its leadership in the fight against the climate crisis,” Lula said on Sunday.
In 2021 alone, deforestation increased by 48%. Renata Piazzon, executive director of the Instituto Arapyau, attributes this to President Bolsonaro, who is campaigning for more mining in the Amazon.
Since Glasgow, Brazil’s targets have been criticized for being “less ambitious” than the 2016 pledges and not delivering on promises.
Image Source, ReutersCaption,
A recently deforested plot of the Amazon rainforest in Manaus, Amazonas state
In the past, Brazil has used hydropower to provide large amounts of green energy – but a drought in 2021 drained its dams. In response, it invested in oil and gas — with forecasts that oil consumption will increase by 70% by 2030.
However, the International Energy Agency predicts that solar power will offset the country’s loss of hydropower.
Australia: making up for lost ground
Politics has also changed in Australia. New Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, elected in May, has accelerated climate plans, ending a decade of backsliding.
But Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, says it only appears to be significant progress because Australia is so far behind.
Image Source, ReutersCaption,
New Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has pledged to reverse Australia’s biodiversity loss by 2030
“Little has changed in politics so far, certainly not in the area of fossil fuels,” he said.
And despite Australia pledged to end deforestation at COP26, in 2021 it was ranked as the only developed country to be a “hotspot” for tree loss – nearly half of eastern Australia’s forests have been destroyed.
China: A “great” polluter investing in renewable energy
China plays a complicated role in global climate protection. Unlike countries in the developed world, it is not responsible for historic greenhouse gas emissions that scientists say have caused climate change so far.
But it’s now a “great polluter” because of its very rapid economic growth, explains Neil Hurst, senior policy fellow in energy and mitigation at the Grantham Institute. It burns half the world’s coal and is reluctant to cut back due to energy shortages.
However, China is also by far the largest investor in renewable energies. A quarter of newly registered cars in China are electric. “They are making great efforts and setting ambitious targets, including capping CO2 emissions by 2030,” explains Mr. Hurst.
And it has big ambitions to fight CO2 emissions by planting trees. In May, President Xi Jinping pledged to plant 70 billion trees by 2030.
Additional reporting by the Data Journalism team.
Top image from Getty Images. Visualization of climate strips courtesy of Prof Ed Hawkins and University of Reading.