COP28, this year's climate summit, reached a historic agreement last week on the global phase-out of oil, gas and coal, a major decision by nearly 200 countries in nearly 30 years of climate negotiations.
But will countries keep their word and transition from planet-warming fossil fuels to greener energy? It is impossible to answer what will happen in the future, but a look at history can shed light on what awaits us.
Here are some examples of what some climate summits have agreed on and how this has evolved over time.
Emission reductions in the Kyoto Protocol
The third climate summit took place in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997, one of the warmest years since records began in the 20th century.
The agreement, known as the Kyoto Protocol, called for 41 high-emitting countries around the world and the European Union to reduce their emissions by just over 5% compared to 1990 levels.
Emission reductions can be achieved in many places, from using green energy like wind and solar power, which produces zero emissions, to making things that drive more environmentally friendly, like cars. B. fuel-powered vehicles.
Despite agreeing to reduce emissions, it was not until 2005 that countries finally agreed to implement the Kyoto Protocol. The US and China (the two largest emitters then and now) have not signed the agreement.
In terms of fulfilling the promises made, Kyoto cannot be said to have been a success. Since then, emissions have increased dramatically. At that time, 1997 was the warmest year on record since pre-industrial times. That record was broken in 1998, as well as more than a dozen years since. And probably it will be this year 2023.
But Kyoto is still considered a historic moment in the fight against climate change because it was the first time that so many countries recognized the problem and committed to tackling it.
The peak of failure: Copenhagen 2009
At the time of the 2009 conference in Denmark, the world was experiencing its warmest decade on record, which has since been surpassed.
The summit is widely seen as a failure in the impasse between developed and developing countries over cutting emissions and whether poorer countries could use fossil fuels to grow their economies. Still, he saw an important promise: money for countries to transition to clean energy.
Rich countries promised to provide developing countries with $100 billion annually for green technologies by 2020, but they only reached that $100 billion in the early 2020s, sparking criticism from both developing countries and environmentalists.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said rich countries may have finally met and even exceeded the target by 2022, but Oxfam, a group focused on poverty reduction efforts, said 70% of the funds would likely come in the form of Loans would flow This has actually exacerbated the debt crisis in developing countries.
And as climate change worsens, experts say the promised funds are not enough. A study published by climate economist Nicholas Stern found that developing countries will likely need $2 trillion in climate action every year by 2030.
The Paris Agreement, successor to Kyoto
It was only in 2015 that nearly 200 nations adopted a global pact to combat climate change, calling on the world to work together to reduce greenhouse gases. However, they decided that it would be non-binding, so countries that did not comply could face no consequences.
The Paris Agreement is widely regarded as the United Nations' greatest achievement in the fight against climate change. It was passed eight years ago with a standing ovation in the plenary session. Nations agreed to limit warming since pre-industrial times to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius (3.8 degrees Fahrenheit) and ideally to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).
And it is true that the legacy of Paris endures and the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C remains at the center of climate debates. Scientists agree that it is necessary to maintain this threshold because every tenth of a degree of warming brings even more devastating consequences in the form of extreme weather events to an already hot planet.
The world has not exceeded the limit set by the Paris Agreement (it has warmed by about 1.1 or 1.2 degrees Celsius since the beginning of the 19th century), but is currently on track to reach it, unless quickly drastic reductions in emissions must be made.
Glasgow: COP puts coal in the spotlight
Six years after Paris, global warming had reached such a critical point that negotiators wanted to recommit to the goal of limiting warming to the levels agreed in 2015.
Average temperatures were already 1.1 degrees Celsius higher than in pre-industrial times.
After last-minute disagreements over the wording of the final document, the countries agreed to a “phase-out” of coal, a weaker idea than the original “phase-out” idea. India and China, two emerging economies heavily dependent on coal, pushed for moderation of terms.
Burning coal is responsible for more emissions than any other fossil fuel, about 40% of global carbon dioxide emissions. The combustion of oil and gas are also important sources of emissions.
So far, countries have not adhered to the Glasgow agreement. Emissions from coal have risen slightly and the major countries that use coal have not yet begun to phase out dirtier fossil fuels.
India is a good example. The company relies on coal for more than 70% of power generation and plans to significantly expand coal-fired power generation capacity over the next 16 months.
Loss and damage in Sharm el-Sheikh
At last year's climate talks in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, countries agreed for the first time to set up a fund to help poorer countries recover from the effects of climate change.
A few months after the devastating floods in Pakistan, which killed nearly 2,000 people and caused more than $3.2 billion in damages, COP27 delegates decided to set up a loss and damage fund to provide relief for destroyed homes , flooded land and loss of income from crops damaged by climate change.
After disagreements over what the fund should look like, the fund was officially launched on the first day of this year's talks in Dubai. More than $700 million has already been committed. The commitments (and the amounts pledged by the states) are voluntary.
Climate experts say the pledges represent only a fraction of the billions of dollars needed because climate-related extreme weather events such as hurricanes, sea level rise, floods and droughts are increasing as temperatures rise.
The most feared thing happened: the world's largest iceberg escaped from Antarctica and endangers the ocean
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This article is part of a series produced as part of the India Climate Journalism Program, a collaboration between The Associated Press, the Stanley Center for Peace and Security and the Press Trust of India.