Published on December 15, 2023 at 7:25 am Updated on December 15, 2023 at 10:15 am
For journalists, the tension lasted until the last minute. But in the hallways of the Europe Pavilion at COP28 in Dubai, everything changed around 8 p.m. on Tuesday. “I received a message: “seems pretty good” [«ça sent plutôt bon », NDLR] up to date with the European heads of delegation. And there I found hope again…” says Agnès Pannier-Runacher, head of the French delegation.
It is an understatement to say that the just-ended UN Climate Change Conference in the United Arab Emirates was full of twists and turns. It ended shortly after 11 a.m. on Wednesday morning: A hammer blow from Emirati President Sultan al Jaber sealed the agreement of 195 countries around the world on a text that envisaged an exit from fossil fuels for the first time. A strong political message, which is undoubtedly inadequate, but which allows him to end the UN High Mass with his head held high.
Big moment of doubt
However, 36 hours earlier, Dubai was threatened with failure. “I have to admit that I had a big moment of discouragement,” admits the minister. Because for the European Union, as well as for other proactive countries (small island states or certain Latin American countries), the draft final text sent by the Presidency of the COP on Monday at around 5.30 p.m. had the effect of a real cold shower.
However, Sultan al Jaber made it clear at the beginning of the UN conference that he wanted to include the phase-out of fossil fuels in the decision. And that was also the case in the previously released versions. But everything has disappeared there, or almost.
The formulations are soft. The text contains a list of options that allow each country to create its own market and contains elements that are unacceptable in the eyes of Europeans: a decline in coal, a practical abandonment of the phase-out of fossil fuels, etc. However the COP is supposed to end at 11 a.m. the next day… in any case, this is the goal stated by Sultan al Jaber, even if no one ever really believed in it.
“There was a kind of collective shock among the most ambitious countries at the time,” says one diplomat. “We said to ourselves that the text reflects the positions of the toughest countries (Saudi Arabia and the Arab countries, India, Bolivia, but also certain African countries) and that we must respond forcefully.” » The OPEC letter published on Friday evening , calling on its members not to give in at the COP, had given a taste of this hard line, but without causing too much concern among diplomats.
Strong moment
But on this Monday evening the diplomatic machinery immediately gets into motion. The European coordination meets from 6:30 p.m. Ministers and diplomats exchange ideas with their counterparts outside the EU: the Marshall Islands, Samoa, Colombia, Kenya, Bangladesh… The twenty member countries of the High Ambition Climate Coalition (HAC) are mobilizing and looking for allies.
A meeting is improvised between them. The security service has to be convinced to allow the twenty or so ministers present access to a room – which takes at least 10 minutes. Little by little it is filling up, chairs are missing, ministers and their teams are sitting on the tables. “There was a particularly powerful moment when the British envoy came straight from a meeting of the umbrella group (which also includes the United States, Australia, Canada, editor's note) and explained that the text did not suit them either.” says one participant.
“Then we realized that there were many of us and that we had to come together,” confirms Agnès Pannier-Runacher. Brazil also supports a strong message. China is further behind, but is not against it. In total, the delegates gathered in the room represent almost 130 countries that decide to work on an alternative text.
And then we suddenly had the feeling that something was happening in front of us
During the closed plenary session, which will take place a little later on Monday evening, its representatives will make a series of speeches, each more decisive than the last. The contribution of the American envoy John Kerry is particularly praised. “We said to ourselves, let’s go, we won’t give up, and we repeat, we repeat, we repeat that we don’t agree…” says Agnès Pannier-Runacher. “And then we suddenly had the feeling that something was happening in front of us. »
However, nothing is certain when the delegates will finally go back to bed shortly before three in the morning. There will still need to be numerous meetings on Tuesday, back and forth between country delegations and the COP28 Presidency, as well as new revisions to the text, in order to achieve the publication of a finished version at around 7 a.m. on Wednesday.
“We heard of enormous pressure from President al Jaber in those fateful hours,” said a delegate. “The presidency was extremely committed,” we confirm in Agnès Pannier-Runacher’s office.
Victory of multilateralism
The phrase “transition away” rather than “exit” to invoke the phase-out of fossil fuels ultimately found acceptance – even if the nuances between them (both can be translated into French as “progressive phase-out”) are subtle.
By way of anecdote, the French delegation, remembering the expression “transition away” used during a summit in the Pacific Islands, suggested it to the Brazilian team after the meeting between Agnès Pannier-Runacher and her Brazilian counterpart Marina Silva on March 10. December before. “The minister knew that a meeting of the BASIC group (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) was to take place that day. I imagine we are not the only ones who thought of it, but it may have helped to spread the idea…” believes a member of the French team.
The text will finally be published on Wednesday around 7 a.m., with the plenary session scheduled for 11 a.m. When they arrive in the huge Al-Hairat plenary hall, the delegates know that the agreement has been sealed – without quite believing it yet.
Excited and tired after several short nights, Agnès Pannier-Runacher then celebrated a “victory of multilateralism”. “The countries stuck together, they also went beyond their own interests instead of staying in their drawers, that's very strong!” she said happily on Wednesday evening, relieved that she didn't have to leave Dubai with a failure.