An activist protests against fossil fuels on stage at COP28 in Dubai, December 11, 2023 (AFPTV/-)
COP28 negotiations continued late into the night on Tuesday over the compromise proposed by the Emirati president, which was widely rejected by countries because of its lack of ambition to phase out fossil fuels.
In the early hours of the theoretical final day of the 28th UN climate conference in Dubai, Western countries, island states and African and Latin American countries reiterated their opposition to the text in a closed session, negotiators contacted by AFP said.
“This is the last COP where we will have a chance to maintain the 1.5°C mark,” the most ambitious goal of the Paris agreement, American envoy John Kerry told his counterparts during this session, which began around 2:30 p.m p.m. ended at 11:30 p.m. GMT.
A new text, the result of this nightly exchange on the 13th day of the summit, is expected on Tuesday, according to delegates. But COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber's bet for a historic agreement at 11:00 a.m. (0700 GMT), the anniversary of the Paris Agreement, is now lost.
“This is not a problem for the European delegation, we have time and are prepared to stay a little longer,” assured the head of German diplomacy Annalena Baerbock.
On Monday evening, Sultan Al Jaber, also head of Emirati oil and gas company Adnoc, proposed a draft treaty that would give countries complete freedom to choose their path to “reducing” fossil fuels.
The 21-page text no longer sets a common goal of “phasing out” oil, gas and coal, although this was foreseen in previous versions, which would represent a historic decision if adopted by consensus among 194 countries and the European Union ratified the Paris Agreement.
Fossil fuels are responsible for around two-thirds of greenhouse gas emissions and are the cause of global warming and associated disasters (droughts, heat waves, floods, etc.). Warming since the industrial era could even reach 1.5°C from the start of the 2030s if humanity does not reduce its emissions by 43% compared to 2019 by then.
– “Death Sentence” –
“The Republic of the Marshall Islands did not come here to sign its death warrant,” thundered its natural resources minister, John Silk, after the text was published.
The European Union considers the project to be “inadequate” and the USA is calling for the project to be “significantly” strengthened.
Representatives of indigenous peoples from around the world during the People's Plenary at COP28 in Dubai, December 11, 2023 (AFP / -)
NGOs and experts denounce a project that lists non-binding options, a “shopping list” or an “à la carte menu” that proposes the development of solar, wind, nuclear, hydrogen or carbon capture technologies.
In their early stages, these were supported by the fossil fuel industry and the producing countries, especially Saudi Arabia, but will have only a weak impact in the current crucial decade.
“There are elements that are unacceptable in their current form,” said French Energy Transition Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher.
“I am surprised at the lack of ambition,” admits another Western negotiator, assessing the text as “uninspired from start to finish, poorly designed, repetitive, incoherent…”
But as a source in the Emirati Presidency of COP28 indicated, this is part of the negotiating game: “It is a movement of openness, we have to build on that.”
– China and United States –
“We have made progress, but there is still a lot to do,” admitted Sultan Al Jaber, who is seeking a balance point between Saudi Arabia and its allies on the one hand and the hundred or so countries that are in favor of phasing out fossil fuels on the other .
Attention is also turning to China and the United States, the world's two largest emitters of greenhouse gases (combined 41%).
The conference center where COP28 will take place in Dubai on December 10, 2023 (AFP / Giuseppe CACACE)
In November, in the Sunnylands Declaration, the two powers agreed not to talk about a “phase-out” of fossil fuels, but emphasized the role of renewable energy in gradually replacing them.
China, which plays a fundamental role in pushing developing countries toward a final consensus, “wants to stick to the Sunnylands formula, while the United States wants to go further,” analyzes Li Shuo of the Asia Society think tank.
Progress on energy targets also depends on parallel progress in other negotiated texts, particularly on adapting to the consequences of global warming and on financial assistance to developing countries, which are crucial to convincing the South to accept a deal.
“I call on all countries to continue to focus on 1.5°C and ensure that the ambition for this decade is high enough,” Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, responded to X.
For Alden Meyer from the think tank E3G, “we are in a major crisis: the next few days will show whether we have a viable international climate regime or not.”
“COP28 is now on the verge of complete failure,” Al Gore, former American vice president and climate activist, even wrote about X.