In France, few, either among the most experienced politicians or among the most recognized political scientists, rule out the possibility that farright candidate Marine Le Pen will win the next French presidential election. For example, Rémi Lefebvre, a professor of political science at the University of Lille, wrote that the possibility of Le Pen becoming president “has never been more credible”.
The polls are very good for them and growing, and elements that could favor them include the absence of current President Emmanuel Macron on the campaign trail, the unpredictability of voters and electricians in times of crisis, the ability for Le Pen to manage its ties with the Russian had to marginalize President Vladimir Putin and what the French newspapers have dubbed “humanizing” the Rassemblement National candidate: in form rather than substance, a strategy that still appears to have worked.
Marine Le Pen in Vienne, February 18, 2022 (AP Photo / Laurent Cipriani)
Marine Le Pen is 53 years old and the daughter of JeanMarie Le Pen, founder of the Front National. In 2011 he took his father’s place at the head of the party, which he then decided to change its name. Over the years, Marine Le Pen has worked to give the party itself a more moderate and reassuring image, establish itself as a credible candidate, and expand its electoral base.
This normalization operation dubbed “dédiabolisation” saw her finish third in the 2012 presidential election and second in 2017, when she then lost the vote to Emmanuel Macron. But today he seems to have found a new impetus and great effectiveness in the face of a very extremist and aggressive candidate like Éric Zemmour.
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“Zemmour’s excesses have had an impact on Le Pen,” Slate wrote, so much so that in late February Le Pen herself had directly invited reporters and journalists to probe the presence of neoNazis in her rival’s ranks. On that occasion, Liberation, the historical newspaper of the French left, published an article in which it specified that he obviously did not need Le Pen’s proposal to do his job, but expressing his astonishment at the audacity of the candidate expressed the Rassemblement National by boasting of having ” marginalized a number of persons who should be excluded from all political movements in France. That is, because they were forced to exclude from their movement those racists or antiSemites caught in the act (or rather, arm outstretched) by the press itself.
Libération, like many other French newspapers, therefore argued and argued that Le Pen’s political positioning remained radical and in many respects very close to that of Zemmour, particularly with regard to the classic issues of the extreme right: security, national identity and migrations. But they also agree that the form and narrative Le Pen was able to build around all of this has changed.
“He pursued an image strategy unlike that of 2012 and that of 2017, from confrontation to encounter, from shock to gentleness,” commented, for example, Raphaël Llorca of the Jean Jaurès Foundation, a French think tank linked to the Socialist Party. Le Pen conducted a rather moderate election campaign, without provocation and which Llorca defined as “therapeutic”: he was able to capture the dominant emotions of the electorate, fatigue, the desire to “heal wounds, alleviate fears, anxieties and worries”.
Le Pen was also able to open up on issues historically practiced in opposing political realms.
Continuing an operation already begun for the 2017 presidential election, she very often emphasized, even on the election posters, that she was a woman: both to attract the electroattractives and to sweeten the idea of a party with historical importance, she has always had a very harsh one and aggressive image. He has spoken several times about “women’s rights,” with the goal less of affirming the freedom and selfdetermination of women themselves and more of criticizing some aspects of Islam, conveying xenophobic messages, or pursuing a security policy. .
An election poster by Marine Le Pen, on which the candidate defines herself as a “stateswoman”, VigneuxdeBretagne, March 29, 2022 (AP Photo / Jeremias Gonzalez)
In addition to female themes, which Le Pen nevertheless adopted in a distorted manner, there is animalism. In fact, the farright candidate dedicated one of her fourteen themed brochures published for the presidential campaign to animal welfare. Whether it’s attitude or a deep commitment, standing up for animal rights has definitely brought her some benefits that are not negligible, given the very high percentage of the French population who voted in favor of action in the polls hat that would improve the conditions of the animals; and among voters, those with the highest expectations in this sense are the most popular social strata.
“Contrary to what is sometimes said,” explained Benoit Thomé, president of a major French animal rights group, “this is not about bobo (cultured people, economically affluent people who eat organic food, natural clothing, alternative vacations, etc., ed.) . Marine Le Pen’s electorate has been waiting for a commitment in this direction and you seem to have understood it well ».
On the one hand, the renewed “dédiabolization of Marine Le Pen was facilitated by the rhetoric of her farright rival Éric Zemmour, the fact that the party of France’s moderate right, Les Républicains, and President Macron’s party, La République en Marche, are in tone and content has become more and more correct.
Indeed, this has created a favorable context for the normalization of the ideas of the far right. In the past few days, French newspapers have often recalled how in February 2021, in front of Les Républicains and now La République en Marche, the current Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin, accused Le Pen of being “a bit soft, a bit shaky towards Islam.
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Elements that could favor Le Pen then include the presidential crisis of Macron, who is president but not a presidential candidate and takes his position as favorite for granted.
“The hatred of Macron, Lefebvre argued, “runs deep, is not without reason fueled by all candidates, further exacerbated by the arrogance of the outgoing president, who is happy on the pitch and enjoys his favorite status. The prospect of beating him can drive battalions of abstentions, particularly in the most popular circles, to leave their reserve and go to the vote ». And predicting what they will vote for is quite unpredictable: “In times of crisis, the representations of the world that determine the balance of a society can change rapidly,” wrote journalist Gaël Breastier.
Supporters and supporters of Marine Le Pen in Reims, February 5, 2022 (Sam Tarling/Getty Images)
Marine Le Pen was also quite good at managing her relationships and ties with Putin in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Since the beginning of the war, the Rassemblement National candidate has downplayed Russia’s role, often taking a rather ambiguous stance.
In the last few hours, when most of the presidential candidates took a stand and denounced the crimes committed by the Russians in Bucha, Marine Le Pen refused to do so. On BFM TV she spoke of “a war crime”, but refused to identify the perpetrators: “It is up to the United Nations to say who is guilty.”
This ambiguity should have discredited her. Instead, unlike her other opponents with proRussian positions, Le Pen was not hit in the polls: not only did she not lose a single point, but she made progress in voting intentions. It managed to distract voters by focusing the reading and analysis of the conflict on the impact the conflict itself might have had on the purchasing power of the French.
Although she gives the impression that she is not openly defending the Russian government on behalf of rising energy prices, she has for years rejected retaliatory measures against Russia. However, unlike the other candidates in her own political sphere, she immediately spoke out in favor of accepting Ukrainian war refugees. Instead, Zemmour suggested that Poland shoulder that responsibility, qualified Putin as an “authoritarian democrat” and dropped points in the polls in favor of Le Pen.
The latest prevote polls give Marine Le Pen 21.1 percent versus Macron’s 27.3 percent in the first round, which will take place on Sunday April 10. And they’re giving it 47 percent against 53 for the outgoing president in the second round, which will be held on Sunday, April 24 instead. While Macron has scaled back his voting intentions in recent weeks, Le Pen has grown.
