Victory Day on May 9 is a symbol of national pride for Russians, much like Independence Day on July 4 is for Americans. Russian National Day celebrates the historic victory of the Soviet Union over Nazi Germany in World War II.
This year marks the 77th anniversary of the victory in a brutal and devastating war waged by Russia in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stated reason for the “special military operation” in Ukraine – the false claim that he wanted to “denazify” Russia’s neighbors – deliberately refers to the history of the Second World War.
It is also a war that the Kremlin perhaps did not anticipate would be as difficult as the ongoing drudgery it has become. Some pundits and sources, who believe Putin plans to use the upcoming holiday to end the war by declaring victory in Russia’s bordering Donbass region in eastern Ukraine, fear Russia could launch an even more brutal attack on Russia in the days leading up to it Ukraine will unleash May 9th.
To explain the meaning of Victory Day and the impact it could have on the war in Ukraine, Julian G. Waller, associate research analyst at the Center for Naval Analyzes, a nonprofit research and analysis organization in Arlington, Virginia, spoke up yahoo message. (Some answers have been edited for length and clarity.)
An armored convoy of pro-Russian troops in Mariupol, Ukraine, on April 21. (Chingiz Kondarov/Reuters)
Yahoo News: Why is May 9, Victory Day, important for Russia?
Julian G Waller: Victory Day is probably the most important secular holiday in Russia and formerly throughout the Soviet Union and many former republics that originated from the USSR. It commemorates the victory of the Soviet Union over Nazi Germany. It was then fundamental to the legitimacy of the Soviet state and to the identity of the vast majority of Soviet citizens who lived through this war of annihilation that killed between 20 and 26 million civilians and soldiers in the Soviet Union alone.
It is a holiday of enormous and important symbolic importance, especially both at the state level and at the level of civilization, but also at the individual level, because everyone has grandparents and great-grandparents who fought, many who died for the course of the Second World War.
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Victory Day has been emphasized throughout the course of the Putin regime since it came to power. A military triumphal procession takes place every year on Red Square and in Moscow, the country’s capital. And this triumphant march is as similar to the Soviet past as they celebrated Victory Day on May 9th. So traditionally this was some kind of celebration where ICBMs were deployed [intercontinental ballistic missiles] being run over, huge formations of tanks, many soldiers marching in step. Of course, given the current tensions in the collective West, in the United States and elsewhere, it will be read much more as a threat.
Will May 9th have an impact on the war in Ukraine?
At the operational level, Victory Day is unlikely to be a major turning point in the war per se, since, simply put, the military reality on the ground will not necessarily correspond to an arbitrary calendar date. Apart from that, many people have argued that due to the symbolic resonance of the day, the fact that it is very closely linked to the Russian Armed Forces, the General Staff, the Russian regime itself, is trying as hard as possible to celebrate Victory Day in any way to associate with the war. A lot of people talk about it as a kind of declaration of victory, a kind of mission accomplished moment. That’s probably a bit of an overstatement – not that they are [Russia] do not attempt to make a claim.
There will be some sort of claims of victory, and they will certainly be related to the Russo-Ukrainian war that’s going on right now. And the new phase in Donbass will most likely prevail. Which does not mean that anything will necessarily change locally. It could spur Russian efforts to try and get their pound of meat, given that the battle of Kyiv went so badly, given that there has been a complete reorientation towards the Donbas and this offensive is now more or less less starts. It is certainly plausible that there is significant pressure to show achievements, specific geographic, territorial achievements, like “We conquered this or that territory in Ukraine at this point. We have liberated this or that people.”
That doesn’t mean the war will stop. I think that’s very unlikely.
Could the war in Ukraine get even more violent, especially in the run-up to May 9th?
Everything can always get worse, that’s for sure. That being said, despite the very notable atrocities and major harsh actions by the Russians, civilian casualties are quite high, military casualties are also very high. It’s a bloody affair, war always is, and house-to-house fighting is terrible.
The Russians have indeed shown relative restraint in deploying some of their larger military arsenals. What I mean by this is that the Russian tactics were not particularly nuanced. However, they were more nuanced than, for example, in Syria. Kyiv was not bombed, to cite just one example; We have not seen the use of tactical nuclear, biological or chemical weapons. All of these things are possible; Even at the conventional stage, thermobaric weapons could be used regularly, indiscriminate rocket fire could be the order of the day, particularly aimed at civilians. There are exceptions to this, but by and large the Russians have not done so.
Why is that? Partly because the original Russian goal was not to destroy Ukraine, but to embark on regime change, retake the mother of all Russian cities, Kyiv, protect the population from fascists, things like that. If this is your political goal and all wars are fought for political reasons, then you want to minimize the cost of reconstruction and also evoke popular favor. Did they do it particularly well? No not true.
It should also be emphasized that there has been restraint and it may not look very restrained given the horrifying images coming from places like Bucha or the siege of Kharkiv or the destruction of Mariupol. These are terrible things. However, there is a relative reluctance. Russia is a nuclear superpower, Russia has many things it can do and it doesn’t do all those things.
At the moment there is no evidence or apparent need to come back from the position of an outside Western analyst and not be privy to these types of decisions, it seems unnecessary that a major escalation, in relation to the qualitative aspects of the war or the deep brutality and grueling destructiveness of war will increase with massive intensity.
Where is the war in Ukraine going from here?
For Vladimir Putin, for the Russian regime as a whole, the stakes are very high. Regarding the course of this war, the fact is that so far it has failed in its political and territorial goals, but again, the war is at an early stage. Unfortunately, it will probably go on like this for some time. We’ve been at this for two months, it’s getting worse, and we have to keep in mind that it will be difficult to predict how long the war will last and how it will develop.
If the war in Donbass goes reasonably well for the Russians, if they are able to establish a connection between the conquered territory in the south and the conquered territory in Donbass, if that can be consolidated, there will be a universe in which there will be no escalation more is needed for their weaker, more embarrassing war aim to be achieved.
Regardless of whether Victory Day is used as a key symbolic differentiator…it is highly likely that throughout May parts of the Russian military will need to go into refit mode to replenish supplies, reorganize, learn best practices . Given that things haven’t been going very well on their own side. That means there will likely be something of a pause along part of the strategic theater of operations. It would be strange if this were not the case.
They will be potentially very important because at that point this break will allow the Ukrainians to replenish. It will allow them to retool and get more soldiers into key areas wherever the frontline ends. And in the meantime, one of the problems for the Russian side is that every day they don’t meet the political goal they have now is another day the United States and other NATO allies get more material supply, more financial support, more equipment needed [to Ukraine]. And every additional day is another day for Congress or national parliaments to get together and decide, ‘we really want to make more of a stamp’.
And that creates problems when Russian political intentions go beyond the immediate territorial extension of Donbass or southern Ukraine.
Yes, the next few weeks may be going to be quite bloody, quite crucial, at least in the short, immediate analysis of the war. But then, at least in sections, there will simply be a lull of necessity. Then we can certainly look forward to a more interesting time later in the summer and whether the negotiations go anywhere remains to be seen. It is possible that negotiations will begin after Victory Day, after the offensive is completed. However, it ends whether it ends before or after May 9th. And maybe we’ll get some hope. It may be a false hope, but we could hope for at least some sense of back-to-the-table action while armies recover for the next round.