China this week resumes naval drills in and around Taiwan in another round of saber-rattling after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island.
The US has condemned the exercises as an “irresponsible” and “provocative” move aimed at undermining peace in the region – following President Xi’s repeated vows to “reunite” Taiwan.
In this video, Mail Online goes through the tensions that led to this confrontation.
Mainland China is separated from Taiwan by the narrow Taiwan Strait, with the midpoint of the waterway serving as the unofficial boundary between the two
China claims dominion over Taiwan and also a vast area of nearby ocean known as the South China Sea, where it has established military bases on previously uninhabited islands
What and where is Taiwan?
Taiwan is a cluster of islands located about 80 miles off the coast of southern China where the East China Sea meets the South China Sea.
Home to 23 million people, it has been ruled at various times by Dutch colonizers, China’s Qing Emperors, and Imperial Japan.
Taiwan is a group of islands located about 80 miles off the coast of mainland China where the East China Sea meets the South China Sea
Why is there tension around the islands?
The fighting dates back more than 100 years to when the mainland was known as the Republic of China after it eliminated its last dynasty – the Qing – in 1911.
The new nation was at war with itself, divided between various warring political factions, leftover royalists and warlords.
In an attempt to reunite the country, the Chinese Nationalist Party – fighting in the name of the republic – allied with the Chinese Communist Party and launched an attack in 1927 that sparked the Chinese Civil War.
Their campaign met with some success, but the alliance did not last long and the two soon found themselves fighting among themselves.
Communist troops fight the Nationalists in the Battle of Siping, in which the Nationalists suffered great casualties
By 1931, the Nationalists had most of China under their control, but the war with the Communists had to be interrupted when Japan invaded.
This invasion ended when Japan was defeated in World War II. After the Japanese surrendered in 1945, the nationalists and communists resumed fighting.
But this time it was the communists – backed by Soviet Russia – who became dominant, and in 1949 the ROC was forced to withdraw from the mainland to Taiwan, which was already under their control.
Mao Zedong, leader of the communists, then established the People’s Republic of China on the mainland.
Separated by the Taiwan Straits, the old enemies remain in a stalemate to this day.
Taiwan sees itself as an independent country, while China sees it as a breakaway province to be “reunited” — though in fact the communists never ruled there.
How did the US get involved?
For decades after the end of the war, America refused to recognize the People’s Republic and instead maintained relations only with Taiwan.
In two crises in the 1950s, communist forces attacked some of Taiwan’s offshore islands, with the US sending ships to help its ally.
But all that changed after Mao’s death in 1976, when reformer Deng Xiaoping took power with a promise to open China to the world.
As China modernized under Deng, President Jimmy Carter agreed to normalize relations with Beijing, and in 1979 the two nations signed an accord.
US President Jimmy Carter and Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping sign documents establishing formal diplomatic relations in 1979
As part of that deal, the Carter administration agreed to recognize the “one China principle” – that there is only one China and Taiwan is a part of it.
But there was a backlash from Congress, which passed legislation requiring America to ship self-defense weapons to the island.
In another crisis in 1995, China attempted to intimidate Taiwan with a series of missile tests, provoking a huge display of US military might.
Beijing finally gave in.
How did the current crisis start?
In 2019, Xi Jinping – the current president of China – gave a speech in which he promised Taiwan’s “reunification” with the mainland, calling it a “great trend in history”.
Xi opened the door to peaceful reunification, but added, “We make no promise to refrain from the use of force and reserve the option to take any action necessary.”
His comments came amid a major update of the Chinese military and after China built bases on islands in the South China Sea and began threatening US ships sailing nearby.
In the years since his speech, Beijing has threatened Taiwan by flying military jets in ever-increasing numbers across the straits.
America, meanwhile, has forged new alliances in the region with countries like India, Australia and Japan to counterbalance Beijing’s might.
What does Pelosi’s visit have to do with this?
Pelosi was the highest-ranking US official since Newt Gingrich in 1997 to visit the island when she landed on August 3, 2022.
Her visit came as part of a tour of US allies in the region to show America’s support in the face of rising Beijing aggression.
Pelosi has been a critic of China’s human rights record for decades, and the trip was seen as cementing that legacy as she nears the end of her career.
Nancy Pelosi meets with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei on August 3, sparking anger in Beijing
But the visit came at an awkward time for Mr Xi, who is preparing to become president for a historic third term in the fall and sees “reunifying” Taiwan as his destiny.
He has responded with an unprecedented show of force, vowing that “those who play with fire will die.”
Xi first ordered six-day military drills around Taiwan that will effectively blockade the island and encroach into its territorial waters.
Now the exercises will continue indefinitely, with Beijing saying it will end them “when the time is right”.
Could China and the US actually go to war?
Officially, America’s policy toward Taiwan is “strategic ambiguity,” meaning Washington refuses to say what it would do if China attacked.
But President Biden has said several times that the US would come to the aid of Taiwan in a war — despite the White House insisting he got it wrong every time.
Chinese anti-aircraft batteries take part in military exercises aimed at intimidating Taiwan
Every time Taiwan has been threatened or attacked in the past, America has sent ships and troops into jeopardy.
If fighting breaks out again, it’s entirely possible that the US will send troops to support its ally and put them in the Chinese line of fire.
By accident or design, it’s easy to see how the two superpowers could come to blows—although that outcome is far from guaranteed.
What would happen if Taiwan was attacked?
Any war between Taiwan and China – whether the US is involved or not – would certainly be bloody.
Taiwan has a modern army equipped with the latest American weapons and has been preparing for an attack from the mainland for decades.
Though small compared to China, Taiwan’s main island is still larger than Belgium and surrounded by dozens of smaller islands.
It would not be easy to conquer and resistance will likely be fierce.
A Chinese Xian H-6 bomber is pictured in the sky over the Taiwan Strait amid huge military exercises that will effectively blockade the island
Taiwan is also one of the most densely populated places on earth. Since there is no escape route, the civilian casualty figure is likely high.
The repercussions would also be severe. Mutual sanctions between the US and China – the world’s two largest economies – are likely, threatening a global recession.
Taiwan is also close to important shipping lanes that are likely to be disrupted, and China could curb its own exports to the West – leading to inflation.
The island itself is also the world’s largest single manufacturer of semiconductors used to make computer chips, and any war would halt production.
This in turn would lead to bottlenecks in computers, smartphones and cars, while at the same time jeopardizing critical infrastructure such as satellites.