Turkey’s refusal to accept Finland and Sweden’s bid to join NATO has sparked a row within the otherwise united alliance over the two Nordic countries’ likely membership.
On Thursday, Turkey blocked the start of Finland and Sweden’s membership talks over complaints that the two countries have too lax a stance on the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Gülenist movement, two groups Turkey identifies as terrorist organizations.
Ankara has accused Stockholm and Helsinki of taking in suspects from the two groups, but the two countries have denied allegations of backing the Kurdish militants – the PKK is also recognized as a terrorist group by the European Union – and have refused to extradite suspects, how demanded by Turkey.
The situation appears to have come to a standstill.
Ankara’s objection could prove a real challenge to a possible entry of Finland and Sweden into the alliance, as NATO needs the unanimous approval of all its members to admit new members. So how will NATO respond to a member state that is once again proving to be an uncomfortable, uncomfortable ally?
Turkey has blocked the start of talks on Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership. Above: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan delivers a speech during his party’s parliamentary group meeting at the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA) May 18, 2022 in Ankara. Getty
Could NATO Drive Turkey Out?
It is not the first time that Turkey’s expulsion from the alliance has been discussed.
The idea was first proposed in 2016 when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cracked down on the opposition after a failed coup. It was then revisited in 2019 when Turkey invaded northeastern Syria. NATO allies reacted with horror and concern to the humanitarian crisis unfolding in the country, with Sweden and Finland imposing sanctions on Ankara that are still in effect.
At the time, US Senator Lindsey Graham suggested Turkey’s membership of NATO should have been suspended if Turkish troops attacked the Kurdish forces that had helped the US destroy the ISIS caliphate.
But the North Atlantic Treaty, which governs NATO, has no way of suspending or even expelling members. But there is an opportunity to do something similar when a member state persistently violates the principles of the pact – by failing to protect the freedom of its people, democracy and the rule of law in the country. In this case, NATO members can unanimously decide to stop supporting that ally.
But would NATO go this far in response to Turkey’s refusal to approve Finland and Sweden’s bid for membership?
An inescapable strategic partner
American historian and University of Michigan political science professor Ronald Grigor Suny finds it highly unlikely that NATO would take such a drastic step that would completely alienate such a strategic ally.
“Turkey has played an amazingly strong hand throughout the Cold War and currently because of its geographical location,” Suny told Newsweek. “Therefore, its placement in Istanbul along the Straits in Anatolia, south of Russia and north of the Middle East, has made it a far more important strategic partner than many states with larger populations or otherwise of greater importance.”
Suny believes Erdoğan is aware of the value Turkey brings to the alliance and is playing this card to get something out of Finland and Sweden’s membership.
“[Erdoğan] doesn’t mean it so seriously,” says Suny. “He will eventually agree, I think, that Finland and Sweden should be members. But he’ll benefit from getting certain weapons from the United States, or certain concessions.”
“He has many, many ailments. And most importantly, he doesn’t want to be criticized for his domestic politics, his arrest of dissidents, by Osman Kavala and other prominent figures, or his treatment of the Kurds. So if the West is silent, as it so often is, about the atrocities and the horrors and the oppression of the Erdoğan regime, he will get what he wants.”
At a news conference on Thursday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said NATO is in close contact with Finland, Sweden and Turkey over concerns raised by Ankara about the PKK.
“I don’t think it will be helpful if I go into the details of all of these talks, but of course we are addressing the concerns that Turkey has raised,” Stoltenberg said, answering a question from a reporter. “Because when an ally, a key ally like Turkey, raises security concerns, raises issues, then of course the only way to deal with it is to sit down and find ways to find common ground and agreement on how.” one should proceed forward.”
Would Russia benefit from Turkey’s objection?
Turkey’s opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO appears to be fulfilling Russian President Vladimir Putin’s wishes as the Kremlin has threatened both countries to join the alliance. But Suny said Erdoğan’s historically uncertain alliance with Putin had nothing to do with the Turkish president’s current refusal.
“Erdoğan and Putin are both realists. You are unsentimental about politics,” said Suny. “They will do whatever is necessary to strengthen their own state position. For Erdoğan, this happens to include the repression of the Kurds domestically and internally, as well as in Syria or elsewhere. And the Russians, you know, I don’t give a damn.”