At the 28th UN climate conference in Dubai on Wednesday, countries around the world agreed for the first time to a historic compromise that, despite numerous concessions to oil and gas-rich countries, paves the way for phasing out fossil fuels that cause warming.
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“We have included language on fossil fuels for the first time in the final agreement,” Sultan Al Jaber, Emirati president of COP28, who has been questioned in recent months over his leadership of the United Arab Emirates oil company, told Adnoc.
It took almost 30 years of COP until “the beginning of the end of fossil fuels has arrived,” applauded European Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra.
The text, adopted by consensus without any of the 194 countries or the European Union raising objections, was an imperfect compromise, many delegates and NGOs noted. He does not directly call for an exit from fossil fuels, thereby disappointing the hundred countries that have called for it. And it contains loopholes for countries that want to continue exploiting their hydrocarbon reserves.
The general relief is offset by the disappointment of the island states affected by the rising ocean, which wanted a more decisive decision against fossils.
“We have taken a step forward from the status quo, but it is an exponential change that we really need,” lamented Samoan representative Anne Rasmussen, whose country chairs the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis). The delegates applauded her for a long time and stood up.
Brazil called on rich countries to provide developing countries with “the necessary resources” so that they too can install solar power plants, switch to electricity and ensure their economic growth.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell has also called on the world to take immediate action. “All governments and businesses must now immediately translate these commitments into concrete results for the economy,” he said.
The agreement, eight years after the Paris Climate Agreement, will be adopted at the end of 2023, which will be the warmest year on record.
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constructive China
But no country objected, which they were entitled to do under COP rules.
Despite the reservations, Sultan Al Jaber's gavel was greeted with a standing ovation. Never before in the history of UN climate conferences have fossil fuels as a whole – oil, gas, coal – been discussed, even though their burning has been the main cause of warming since the 19th century.
In a world plagued by the return of conflict, this agreement is “a reason to be optimistic,” said US climate envoy John Kerry.
France hailed “a victory for multilateralism and climate diplomacy” through its Energy Transition Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher, who noted that France had managed for the first time to mention nuclear energy as one of the means to decarbonize energy.
China and its climate representative Xie Zhenhua, who came into the plenary session with a thumbs up, were seen as crucial to the compromise reached in the last few days.
Decisive decade
What exactly does the 21-page text say?
The 28th paragraph of 196 calls for “a transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a fair, orderly and equitable manner and accelerating action in this crucial decade to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050, in line with scientific recommendations.”
The transition therefore concerns the energy sector and not other sectors such as petrochemicals. But the call to action this decade was a demand from the European Union.
By choosing the term “transition away”, the text no longer speaks of “transitional phases” of oil, gas and coal, a term that for months has become the banner behind which more than a hundred countries and thousands of NGOs have rallied .
A source close to the Emirati presidency says the text was precisely “calibrated” to avoid a blockade by Saudi Arabia in particular. But while the wording remains so ambiguous that everyone can find what they need…
A first step
Many NGOs and experts expressed reservations when analyzing the diplomatic intricacies of the text. But they underline how important it is to have broken the fossil taboo at a COP.
“If Glasgow (2021) was the first crack in the dam, with the demand to cut coal, now it is a big break with the expansion into oil and gas,” says Alden Meyer of the think tank E3G. “The Saudis are desperately trying to plug the dam, but the significance of the story is clear.”
“The genie will never go back in the bottle,” adds Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, another think tank.
The agreement also includes recognition of the role that “transitional energies,” a reference to gas, play in ensuring the “energy security” of developing countries, again a concession to fossil gas producers.
The text also contains several energy-related demands: tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency by 2030; Accelerating “zero- and low-carbon” technologies, including nuclear power, low-carbon hydrogen, and emerging carbon capture and storage, defended by oil-producing countries to continue pumping hydrocarbons.