The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. The phrase that usually sums up any report on inequality in society – whether local, national or global – also applies to climate change. At least today, because in the future no one will be able to make a profit unless there is an urgent change. For now, the real difference is geography: the north of the planet benefits economically from environmental change, while the south continues to decline. These are the key conclusions of a new report from the Climate Change Hub at the University of Delaware (USA), entitled “Loss and Damage Today: How climate change impacts production and capital and capital”.
“Climate change is also exacerbating current global inequalities, with several countries with high purchasing power currently experiencing net increases, including an average increase in European countries of 4.7% of their gross domestic product,” the study concludes. This improvement on the old continent as a whole means that Southeast Asia and Southern Africa have to accept losses of 14.1% and 11.2% respectively. “These losses highlight the disproportionate burden of climate change on developing countries,” the report said.
In the week that the United Nations National Conference on Climate Change (COP 28) begins – where the size of a fund to address the various impacts of global warming will be analyzed – the American University article presents its conclusions after using 58 different Develop models and shed light on the consequences that have already been suffered, instead of talking about assumptions. In general, climate change has already led to a loss of 1.8% in 2022, but weighted by population, the value increases to 6.3%. It is precisely this difference between the two figures that actually reflects the disproportionate nature of the losses depending on the country or region. Be that as it may, the world loses up to $2.1 trillion every year due to this phenomenon; roughly the GDP of Canada (and 50% more than Spain’s 1.4 billion). If the focus is extended to 1992, when the Rio de Janeiro summit took place, which marked a before and after in the climate debate, the cumulative losses would be $21 trillion (about the same as the annual GDP of the United States). which shows that the situation is deteriorating without improvement.
Because it is a matter of time and what is good for a few today will be bad for everyone in not too long a time. The increase in temperature recorded in recent decades determines the current result: according to the study, for example, Russia has improved its GDP by 4.2% due to milder winters that boosted its activity, while Saudi Arabia has lost 11.3% of its GDP due to prosperity declining labor productivity and additional infrastructure costs.
In a more neutral environment, the two leading world powers stand out: the United States and China. The North American climate is in fact in zero equilibrium due to the subtraction of increasingly higher temperatures (in the south of the country) and milder winters (in the north). The Asian giant is already suffering, adding cuts equal to 1.8% of its activity, exactly in line with the world average.
Spain is currently experiencing a similar setback, with the report pointing to a 2.2% decline in its GDP. Although it belongs to the group of most developed countries (in the terminology of all international organizations), it is one of the few European states with a negative balance. Greece and Portugal are the other Eurozone countries in the same situation and Italy is almost positive. The southern European flank therefore already has economic problems.
The complete opposite of the north. Aside from the Faroe Islands’ statistical anecdote (their GDP is 37.1% better), Norway, Belarus and Iceland saw their gross domestic product increase by more than 15% due to the general improvement in winter temperatures. Sweden, Germany, the United Kingdom, Austria, the Netherlands… the most powerful economies are flying with the wind and embracing climate change.
“Across major economic groups, developed countries experience minimal losses or gains due to climate change, while less developed countries suffer an average loss of 8.3% of GDP.” This increases current global inequality and requires comprehensive strategies to address the disproportionate burden “To address developing countries,” says the University of Delaware study.
Follow all information Five days on Facebook, X and LinkedIn or in our Five Day Agenda newsletter
Register for free to continue reading in Cinco Días
If you have an account with EL PAÍS, you can use it to identify yourself
Thank you for reading Cinco Días
_