Oregon has reported more new COVID-19 cases so far this week than the same period last week, signaling, if not the start of a new coronavirus flare-up, then a significant slowdown in the post-Omicron dip in cases.
The increase in newly reported cases in Oregon this week was relatively small, with the one-week daily average rising to 252 on Friday from 200 cases on Monday. But the bump comes after nine straight weeks of rapid declines and could predict more infections in the coming weeks.
The ebb and flow of infections has often shifted during the pandemic. Oregon set records during January’s omicron surge, averaging more than 8,000 cases per day before falling to its lowest level since last summer.
That puts the new spike into perspective, and many federal health officials have said they don’t expect a large nationwide spike caused by the even more contagious BA.2 subvariant of Omicron.
According to modeling by Oregon Health & Science University The sub-variant, combined with the lifting of pandemic restrictions, could result in an increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations that would peak on May 9.
About half of the estimated 293 hospitalizations would be people who happened to test positive for COVID-19 and are in a hospital to be treated for something else, OHSU analyst Peter Graven said earlier in an email. The university’s modeling has both underestimated and overestimated past fluctuations.
Subvariant BA.2 has already led to a surge in cases in Europe, a region that has historically served as a leading indicator of what the United States might face. According to the New York Times, 17 states have reported increases in cases in recent weeks.
At the moment, coronavirus hospitalizations are in Oregon remains near 110 occupied beds. The number of patients in intensive care units has also fallen to a low not seen in months. On Wednesday, 15 occupied beds in the intensive care unit were reported – the lowest number in one day since the first wave of the pandemic in spring 2020.
With hospital admissions and cases falling, the Oregon Health Department said it will no longer issue daily detailed press releases on the state of the pandemic starting Monday. While much of the information will be available and updated every business day on the agency’s online data dashboards, the state will no longer provide detailed information about those who died, including age, place of residence, date they tested positive, as well as date and place of death.
— Fedor Zarchin