While a rise in the epidemic has been confirmed in France, as in a number of European countries, this Monday marks the end of Covid-related restrictions in the country. The end of the mandatory mask, the removal of the vaccination card. Are these reductions, combined with the resurgence of infections and the prevalence of BA.2, signs of the beginning of a new wave?
With 72,443 cases reported in the last 24 hours, data on the Covid epidemic in France confirms a recovery. An increase that comes at the wrong time as this Monday, March 14, the French can say goodbye to Covid-related restrictions.
New cases on the rise
The numbers speak for themselves. For several days now, the epidemic has been on the rise again. In an infographic, Le Parisien pointed to an increase in pollution in Western Europe between March 6 and 10.
In France, we recorded an increase of 11%. when in Germany we reach 16%, 17% in Italy and even 33% additional infections in the United Kingdom and up to 43% increase in new daily cases in Finland.
Place of sub-option BA.2
Became majority in France at the end of February according to Public Health France, sub-variant BA.2, more contagious than Omicron, may well be partly responsible for the resurgence of the epidemic. On the other hand, if it is about 30% more contagious, it seems that its danger is no higher than that of Omicron.
For Professor Bruno Megarban, head of intensive care at the Lariboisière hospital in Paris, guest of FranceInfo this Sunday, March 13, this morning, there is no worries yet, given the weak impact of this increase in pollution on the hospital. Services. On the other hand, he recalls that sub-option BA.2 may pose a risk to immunocompromised or unvaccinated individuals.
Consequences of lifting restrictions
Could ending masks indoors and canceling the vaccination card affect epidemic rates? Yes, according to projections from the Pasteur Institute, but not enough to sound the alarm, according to researchers who model a worst-case scenario of a sharp increase in contacts from March 14, leading to new infections.
We are investigating scenarios where the easing of measures would further increase the number of contacts from 14 or 7 March. In all scenarios, the peak incidence remains well below the January peak. pic.twitter.com/0aT13jgHka
— Simon Kochemez (@SCauchemez) March 10, 2022
However, in this projection the maximum number of new daily cases will not exceed 170,000, well below the January peak of over 300,000 daily cases..
Can we talk about the 6th wave?
If for now the impact of this new wave on hospital services seems minimal, Professor Antoine Flahaud is not shy about his words. “I think we underestimate in Europe the virulence of the new BA.2 variant, which is becoming dominant almost all over the world.“, he explains in an interview with the Swiss newspaper La Tribune de Genève.
Latest news!!! new #COVID-19 #BA2 wave goes to Western Europe.
UK (R-eff=1.21), CH=1.19; FL=1.19; NL=1.18; FR=1.13; AU = 1.11 – All show an increase in pollution without any lull after BA.1.
Now two key questions:
1. Its size;
2. Its severity? pic.twitter.com/qZMNHGuno7— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) March 11, 2022
Also in Le Parisien he warns: “Call a spade a spade: a new wave begins in Western Europe“.For the epidemiologist, the beginning of the sixth wave is beyond doubt. There remain” two key questions now: 1. Its size; 2. Is this serious? he asks on Twitter.