The Covid-19 pandemic would have killed more than 18 million people worldwide between early 2020 and late 2021, more than three times the official figure, according to a study published Friday in The Lancet.
“Official statistics on deaths from Covid-19 provide only a partial picture of the true death toll” associated with the pandemic worldwide, the authors of the study note. Covid-19 is potentially one of the leading causes of death in 2020 and 2021, they said.
Very low numbers
Yes the official figure is 5.94 million deaths worldwide between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2021, and is considered a gross underestimate in various works. and tried to better estimate the overall toll from the pandemic.
The latest study by the Lancet to date puts the number of Covid-19-related deaths at 18.2 million over this period, more than three times the official balance based on excess mortality calculations.
Excess mortality corresponds the difference between the number of deathswhatever the cause of their death, and number of expected deathsbased on past data.
In addition to the mortality database, the authors of the study, among other things, created several models to predict the expected mortality rate in the absence of Covid-19, among other things, to compensate for the lack of complete and reliable data in several countries.
Subdiagnosis
“Of the 12.3 million additional deaths compared to reported Covid-19 deaths, a significant proportion is likely to be due to infection with SARS-CoV-2“, they think.
The difference between excess deaths and reported deaths from Covid-19 could be explained by underdiagnosis of coronavirus infections and/or higher than expected deaths from other diseases as a result of behavioral change or less access to healthcare as pandemics occur, the researchers say.
By region of the world, the Andean countries of Latin America, Eastern and Central Europe, and southern Sub-Saharan Africa showed the highest rates of excess mortality in 2020-2021.
Of the countries hardest hit by the pandemic, Bolivia has the highest excess death rate. Conversely, in countries such as Australia and New Zealand, excess mortality has been below normal levels.
Additional Research
The researchers acknowledge certain limitations in their study and believe more work is needed to measure excess deaths directly due to Covid-19.
Among various studies, The Economist put the total death toll from the pandemic at 17 million worldwide in a paper published in mid-November based, in part, on data from two researchers.
To date, the World Health Organization has calculated, taking into account the excess mortality directly or indirectly associated with Covid-19, that the losses from the pandemic could be two to three times higher than the official figures.