The final game of Super Wild Card Weekend pits the NFC South Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Dallas Cowboys.
Those two teams clashed in Week 1 when Tampa beat Dallas 19-3 in one of the most embarrassing games of the season for the Cowboys — a game that ended with Dak Prescott suffering a broken thumb that looked like it would the cowboys are ending ‘ chances of even making it to where they are now. We know what happened next: The Dallas defense and Cooper Rush came on and saved the season, then Prescott returned and took the offense to another level while the defense fell behind. The Cowboys now go into the rematch as street favorites.
The Buccaneers have certainly been one of the NFL’s most disappointing teams this season. They finished the year with an 8-9 record and only got into the postseason because they played in what was arguably the worst division in the league. And yet it doesn’t matter what you get for the tournament. They now have the opportunity to play a home game and catch up on what they couldn’t do during the regular season.
So which of these two teams will face the 49ers next weekend? We’ll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here’s how to watch the match.
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Date: Monday 9 January | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa)
TV: ESPN | Electricity: fuboTV (try for free)
Consequences: CBS Sports App
opportunities: Cowboys -2.5, O/U 45.5 (courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
When the cowboys have the ball
Look at the overall numbers, and the Cowboys had one of the NFL’s best offenses this season, despite their starting quarterback missing a third of the year. They placed 11th in total yards and fourth in points, and seventh on Tru Media’s version of EPA per game. Narrow it down to just the games after Dak Prescott returned from injury, and the Cowboys basically equaled the Bills for second place in EPA per game.
But there’s still something about her offense that leaves you cold. They can go through phases where they look pretty bad and struggle to get the ball to their most explosive playmakers. That happened in their playoff loss to the 49ers last season, when Tony Pollard received just six total touches and CeeDee Lamb was targeted five times, compared to 13 touches (for 35 yards) for Ezekiel Elliott and 18 total hits for Players like Dalton Schultz and Cedrick Wilson. The Cowboys hobbled for 307 total yards and 17 points and were embarrassingly sent home early.
They’ve mostly avoided those types of games this season…except booking the season with them against the Buccaneers in week 1 and the Commanders in week 18. Those were perhaps the two worst games of Prescott’s entire career (according to the EPA per dropback, they were the sixth and fourth worst according to Tru Media) as he combined just 28 of 66 passes for 262 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Lamb had 7 catches for 81 yards and one count on 18 goals in those two games, while Pollard had 15 touches for 41 yards.
Simply put, none of this can happen if the Cowboys hope to win this game down the road. They must be the team that led the league between Prescott’s return in Week 7 and Week 17, scoring at least 27 points in all but one game despite averaging 1.6 turnovers per contest. The decline of the offensive line in the second half of the season (and Tyron Smith’s relative struggle to switch back to the right side after a Hall of Fame career on the left) led to a decline in rushing effectiveness, and Prescott’s newfound aggression had its pros (more explosive plays) and cons (more picks).
Dallas’ path to winning this game is to focus their offense on their explosive players. Matriculating the ball in downfield throughout the game plays into Tampa’s hands. Mike McCarthy, Kellen Moore and co. have to resist the temptation to lean on the familiar and safe (Zeke runs on the first and ten, checkdowns to Schultz across the middle, etc.) and instead try to take advantage of the advantage they have in this one Contest.
When the Buccaneers have the ball
The Buccaneers’ offense hasn’t looked as much this season as it did in the first two years of the Tom Brady era. In 2020 and 2021, Tampa ranked seventh and second in total yardage, third and second in total points, third and first in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, and fifth and third in the EPA version of Tru Media per game. That season, the Buccaneers ranked 15th in yards, 25th in points, 16th in the DVOA, and 22nd in the EPA per game.
The troubles along the offensive line — Ali Marpet’s retirement, Ryan Jensen’s knee injury, Alex Cappa’s freehand loss, Tristan Wirfs’ injuries, Donovan Smith’s precipitous decline — were apparent throughout most of the season and affected every aspect from the offense.
The running game was pretty much a disaster throughout the season. Tampa ranked 30th in Rush Offense DVOA, and according to Tru Media, only two NFL teams averaged fewer yards from contact per carry (1.16). The Dallas defense actually finished the season fifth in the rush defense DVOA, but the Bucs ran over them when those two teams met in Week 1, with Leonard Fournette converting his 21 carries into 127 yards. (Fournette then averaged 3.2 yards per carry for the rest of the season. His 127 yards against Dallas accounted for 19% of his total rushing yards for the year.)
Tampa was also unable to push the ball down the field in the passing game for most of the season. After averaging 9.06 yards per attempt in 2020 and 8.07 per attempt last season, Tom Brady’s average pass this season moved just 6.83 yards in the air, according to Tru Media. Just 1.0.4% of his passes traveled at least 20 yards down, a precipitous drop from a 15.4% high during the Tampa Super Bowl season. The only time the Bucs really looked like they could get the ball downfield was two weeks ago against the Panthers when Brady and Mike Evans repeatedly torched poor CJ Henderson, who gave up 7 catches for 127 yards and two touchdowns , when he was in coverage against Evans .
The Cowboys have been very prone to downfield passes in recent weeks, but it’s mostly been teams targeting which cornerback Trevon Diggs is facing. (If the two matchups between these two teams over the past two seasons are any indication, Diggs will be shadowing Evans. In those two games, Evans has totaled 8 catches for 95 yards and one touchdown.) As Anthony Brown was lost for the season , Dallas has tried Kelvin Joseph, Nahshon Wright, Mackensie Alexander and Trevon Mullen and none of it has worked. Xavier Rhodes has been given work at this point during training and he could get his first opportunity on Monday night. Brady has to be willing to work this matchup with Chris Godwin, Russell Gage, Julio Jones or whoever across from Rhodes (or whatever corner the Cowboys are throwing out there).
The way Dallas can mitigate all of this is to rediscover their pass rush, which has disappeared throughout the season. After recording multiple sacks in each of the first 12 games of the season, Dallas has two sackless games in their last five games and just six total sacks across those five competitions. Before that, the Cowboys averaged 4 a game. (Interestingly, the Cowboys were still under constant pressure throughout this stretch; they just weren’t able to convert that pressure into sacks.) If Micah Parsons, Demarcus Lawrence, Dorance Armstrong, Sam Williams and Dante Fowler couldn’t dominate the game, could it’s difficult for Dallas to deal with things in the backend.
Featured Game | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Cowboys 26