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TYRE, Lebanon – The secondary conflict that erupted alongside the Gaza war along the Lebanese-Israeli border has become something of a routine. For the past six weeks, Israel has attacked Lebanon and Hezbollah has attacked Israel every day, a pattern that began as duplicity and has now degenerated into a steady exchange of fire.
The attacks almost always take place within 4 to 5 miles of the border on both sides, a deliberate coordination aimed at curbing violence and averting a far more devastating war.
But the scope and intensity of the fighting is gradually increasing. On Saturday, Israeli warplanes attacked an aluminum factory in the Lebanese town of Nabatieh, 12 miles north of the border – well outside the traditional zone where retaliatory fire was considered acceptable by both sides.
Lebanese Hezbollah is considering dueling appeals: easing attacks or escalating
And both sides have begun using deadlier weapons. Israel now regularly sends warplanes to attack Hezbollah targets; Hezbollah uses drones and heavier rockets. It claimed on Saturday that it had shot down an Israeli drone, which Israel denied. Israel responded later in the day by targeting what it called an advanced surface-to-air missile system.
Israeli officials have also sharpened their rhetoric: “The citizens of Lebanon will bear the costs of this recklessness and Hezbollah’s decision to defend Hamas-ISIS,” Israel Defense Forces spokesman Daniel Hagari said last week. “The IDF has operational plans to change the security situation in the north.”
In the first weeks of fighting, Israel fired only in the evenings, said Adiba Fanash, 65, one of just a dozen residents who remained in the border village of Dhaira, right on the Israeli border. “Now it’s morning to night,” she told The Washington Post as she visited Tire to buy supplies. “It’s escalating day by day.”
These sporadic escalations have not yet sparked the conflagration many fear, but any violation of the unspoken agreement between Hezbollah and Israel brings them closer to the brink.
The last war in 2006 killed over 1,200 people in Lebanon and 165 in Israel and left much of this beleaguered country in ruins. Both sides have warned that an all-out conflict now would be far more devastating, and both have indicated they have no desire for such a war.
But as the weeks pass and the missiles fly, the risk grows that either side will miscalculate or go too far, said Andrea Tenenti, spokesman for the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon, a peacekeeping force overseeing activities on the Lebanese side of the border supervised.
“Anything one side could do, the other could decide it’s gone too far” and spark a larger fight, he said.
In ancient Tyre, a picturesque port city of fishermen, cobbled streets and markets, fears are high that the violence will soon spread to the rest of Lebanon. The last 17 years have brought the South its longest stretch of peace in five decades, and this city has thrived, attracting tourists to its beaches, bars and boutique hotels.
The bars and hotels are now empty and there are few customers in the quayside restaurants. “We want peace and we want food on our table,” said Sami Rizk, a fisherman who said demand for his daily catch has halved. “We don’t want war,” he added emphatically.
But whether war can be avoided is questionable. The exchange began hours after the first Israeli airstrikes on Gaza on October 7, when Hezbollah fired a handful of grenades at an Israeli-occupied strip of Lebanese farmland in a show of solidarity with Hamas, drawing Israeli retaliation. Now it is difficult to identify which attacks represent a reaction and which are intended to provoke, said Tenenti.
An aid stop for people fleeing the conflict at a school in southern Lebanon
“Nobody controls it. We have to stop this. It is very dangerous,” said Rita al-Darwish, who fled her border village under fire six weeks ago and is among more than 14,000 displaced people who have sought refuge in Tyre. In total, more than 46,000 Lebanese have fled the border region for safer parts of the country, according to the International Organization for Migration, and the number is increasing every day.
Intensive talks are taking place behind the scenes to prevent a repeat of 2006, say Arab and Western diplomats. Their attention focused on the calculations of Hezbollah – the Shiite party and militant group that is the dominant political and military force in Lebanon – and the words of Hasan Nasrallah, the group’s powerful leader who has close and long-standing ties with Iran .
In two speeches since the war began, Nasrallah has suggested that Hezbollah sees its role as creating a diversion along Israel’s northern border to ease pressure on Hamas, its ally in Gaza, rather than waging an all-out war.
It is not clear whether Hezbollah would be able to maintain the support of the Lebanese people if it embroiled them in another costly conflict. The country is already in a political stalemate and on the verge of economic collapse.
Lebanese Hezbollah is considering dueling appeals: easing attacks or escalating
A woman from one of the border villages who fled to Tire said her home and that of her relatives were destroyed by Israeli fire a day after she fled. Hezbollah fighters took over the houses, prompting Israeli attacks, she said. “I blame Hezbollah,” she said, calling the fighters “terrorists.” Because of the sensitivity of the topic, she spoke on condition of anonymity.
But people here are far more concerned about Israel’s intentions and the prospect that it might try to finally rid itself of the militant presence along its northern border. Israel invaded Lebanon twice and occupied the country for 22 years between 1978 and 2000.
Most Lebanese are convinced that Israel has a long-term plan to take over the country, said Samir Hussein, a Tire-based engineer who runs an organization dedicated to civil dialogue.
“They proved their intentions by flooding us with blood[shed],” he said. “They want our land, our gas, our water.”
Israel’s toughened rhetoric and the prospect of a decisive Hamas defeat presented Hezbollah with difficult choices, said Mohammed Obeid, a political analyst close to the group.
“When you think about the future, can you just allow the Israelis to win in Gaza?” he asked. “If they do that, they will focus on Lebanon next.”
Sarah Dadouch in Beirut contributed to this report.