Upon arriving in Israel on Thursday, Blinken reiterated that his country will “always” support Israel. “We will always be by your side,” said the chief US diplomat after a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv.
At the same time, Blinken also addressed the humanitarian situation in Gaza: they discussed how the “humanitarian needs of people living in Gaza” could be protected “while Israel carries out its legitimate security operations.” There were also discussions about ways civilians could leave Gaza safely, Blinken said.
Delayed ground offensive
The consequences of these discussions have become evident in recent days. Israel called on the population of the northern Gaza Strip to flee south. What was originally a very short ultimatum has now been extended several times. And there has been much speculation about the reasons why Israel’s expected ground offensive is now several days away.
IMAGO/ZUMA Wire/State Antony Blinken Blinken guaranteed support for Netanyahu – but also expressed clear words
One of the reasons may be that the US is putting pressure on Netanyahu’s government to wait until as many civilians as possible are taken to safety. On Monday, shortly after Blinken returned to Israel after visits to Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, speculation began to circulate that US President Joe Biden might also travel to Israel. in the next days. If this is confirmed, it is an indication that the US wants to increase pressure in the region.
Tug of war at Rafah border crossing
Neighboring Egypt plays a central role in the conflict; Blinken’s visit to President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on Sunday was particularly explosive. The US is pushing to open the Rafah border crossing from the Gaza Strip to Egypt to allow foreign citizens to leave the country. Egypt, for its part, only wants to agree to this if aid supplies are delivered to the Gaza Strip at the same time, although Israel only wants to allow this if precise controls exclude arms smuggling. On Monday there was at least some movement in the debate – with some UN tankers being allowed to pass towards Gaza.
Egypt’s fear of refugees
The aim is probably to create a humanitarian corridor that would allow all civilians who want to flee the Gaza Strip to leave the country. According to US calculations, this could be an advantage for Israel to be able to emphasize this humanitarian aspect in the event of harsh military action. But resistance comes from Egypt and other Arab countries.
AP/Jacquelyn Martin Blinken on a delicate mission with Sisi
Sisi warned of a permanent expulsion of Palestinians from the coastal strip: “It is important that the (Palestinian) people remain firm and present in their lands,” he said. But the background is also different: Egypt fears that, in extreme cases, hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees will never be able to return to their homeland, as was the case after the 1948 and 1967 wars.
Military aid as US leverage
However, the US has a means of pressure or an ace up its sleeve: for decades, the United States has granted Egypt around 1.3 billion dollars annually to finance the armed forces. At the same time, arms deals worth around 2.5 billion dollars are ongoing between the countries. Blinken could accept the high price and forego part of the payment – or throw Sisi out the window and question the future of military aid.
Qatar as potential mediator for hostages
Blinken’s visits to Qatar and Saudi Arabia were no less sensitive. Qatar finances Hamas, but on the other hand, it has open communication channels with the US. It is no coincidence that the emirate is seen as a potential intermediary to free Israeli – and international – hostages in the hands of Hamas.
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Qatar’s role in the new war in the Middle East
Saudi Arabia has long been a key supporter of the Palestinians. More recently, there has been a struggle for diplomatic rapprochement with Israel under US mediation; the breakthrough that had just occurred was impeded by Hamas’ attack on Israel, and the talks were now frozen.
Counterweight to Iran
Strategists in Washington are divided on whether or not to be allies, writes the British “Telegraph” in an analysis: If these states become partners with Blinken it will also show “how much power the US still has”. President Biden staked out the ground before Blinken’s visit, analyzes the Financial Times: In phone calls, he warned Arab countries against trying to “exploit” the fighting in Gaza.
Blinken’s mission, observers say, is to urge Arab countries to form a counterweight against Iran and Hezbollah, which it supports in Lebanon. After all: Saudi Crown Prince and de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman had a rare conversation with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Thursday. The US tried to force Iran to show restraint by sending two aircraft carrier groups.
Patience in the Israeli offensive
At the same time, the US wants to persuade its Arab allies to react moderately to the Israeli ground offensive, at least for a while, even if – as is feared – there will be many casualties among the civilian population.
William Wechsler, executive director of the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center, told the Financial Times that the US’s Arab allies would be more patient with Israel’s response to Hamas due to the heinousness of the atrocities. But he warned that with a prolonged war, Gulf allies will find it increasingly difficult to comply with U.S. calls for restraint.
How long this time window might last is unclear. But it seems clear that the US is also signaling to Israel that a ground offensive is not likely to last long. There are also recent examples of this: as early as 2021, Biden and senior US officials urged Netanyahu to end attacks against Hamas after just over a week.
Scenarios for after the war
In addition to very current crisis diplomacy and the prevention of a conflagration in the region, medium-term considerations should also play a role: The US, writes the Telegraph, appears to doubt that the Israeli government has a plan for the region after the imminent ground invasion: “No one knows better than Americans that countries beset by terrorist atrocities can act hastily and make terrible mistakes.”
Blinken’s task in the coming days and weeks will be to “work with Europe and its Arab allies on an international plan for the Gaza Strip” once the war ends. Some media outlets are already comparing the difficulty of Blinken’s mission to that of Henry Kissinger. If the foreign minister has any success, it would also be the return of great US crisis diplomacy.