A record turnout of around 80,000 participants is expected at COP28 in Dubai. Among them are delegation members, journalists and activists, but also lobbyists and company representatives – there is a lot at stake not only in climate terms, but also in economic terms. This year, the fight to phase out fossil fuels, i.e. oil and natural gas, is expected to play a central role in the negotiations – and lead to difficult discussions.
The host country, the United Arab Emirates, is itself a major exporter of gas and oil. The group of countries is the seventh largest oil producer in the world and ranks 15th in natural gas. Proven reserves are only higher in six other countries, reports the “” (“FAZ”). Oil and gas exports contribute a third of economic output.
World Climate Conference
The Conference of the Parties (COP) brings together the EU and the 197 participating States that signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The COP takes place every year in a different city, and the two negotiations weeks are used to formulate a decision text.
The fact that the head of the state oil company ADNOC has assumed the presidency of COP28 is not only met with criticism from climate activists. It is an “oil company that has its own state”, an observer told the AFP news agency. In May, more than 100 members of the US Congress and the European Parliament called for Al Jaber’s resignation.
debate
What does COP28 bring?
Commitment required
Promises to immediately stop the expansion of fossil fuels were also insisted upon in advance. “COP leadership should strive to achieve formal negotiation outcomes with the legal status of a COP decision and not rely on voluntary commitments,” stated a recent letter from more than a hundred environmental organizations.
Al Jaber said the world needs to “reduce dependence” on fossil fuels, but stopped short of calling for the complete elimination of oil, coal and gas. The fact that it promotes the controversial separation and storage of CO2 (“carbon capture”) also caused criticism.
Al Jaber sees no conflict of interest
Al Jaber himself cannot understand the criticism of his role. “People who accuse me of conflict of interest don’t know my background,” he said in July. “I’m someone who has been concerned about sustainability for most of my career.” In 2006, he founded Masdar, a state-owned renewable energy company in the Emirates. As head of ADNOC, he declared in 2016 that he wanted to move the oil and gas giant toward climate neutrality.
COP28 Director General Majid al-Suwaidi also rejected reservations about his country. “The UAE is a leading country on climate change, we have done our part in the work,” he said in September. Former COP President Laurent Fabius attested to Al Jaber’s hard work and precise experience. “He is very direct and willing to listen,” said Climate Action Network COP veteran Harjeet Singh.
AP/Kamran Jebreili Al Jaber speaks at the World Government Summit before COP
Ensure prosperity and alternative income
The UAE rejects the criticism and emphasizes that it has contributed to a five-fold increase in green electricity production in the last ten years. They also want to expand green hydrogen further. According to announcements by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Dubai will be the city with the lowest carbon footprint by 2050. The objective is to guarantee prosperity, but at the same time generate alternative income, writes “FAZ”.
The COP28 team referred to the UAE’s climate goals to the North American broadcaster CNN. They were the first in the Middle East to ratify the Paris Climate Agreement and set emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050. They have also recently increased climate targets and committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050. This shows that the UAE is ready to “act” on climate protection.
The organization Climate Action Tracker, of course, assessed this more critically: The new target is an improvement compared to the project presented for 2022. However, the planned expansion, rather than a reduction in oil and gas production, will probably not would help achieve the objectives.
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Report on large-scale public relations campaigns
What is certain is that the UAE is aware of the distorted optics – and is eagerly taking countermeasures. CNN reports US Department of Justice files that show the government and state-owned companies have hired some of the world’s biggest public relations firms to improve the climate picture. According to the Center for Climate Reporting and the Guardian, members of the COP28 team edited Wikipedia pages about Al Jaber and wanted to remove references to a major oil deal and critical media reports.
And disinformation expert Marc Owen Jones noted a “large number” of fake Twitter accounts touting the UAE’s environmental record. This raises “alarm bells when you consider how much this type of influence will increase and become more sophisticated and complex as the time approaches,” said Jennie King, head of climate research and policy at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD). , to CNN. .
IMAGO/Laci Perenyi The future of fossil and renewable energy sources will likely cause debate at COP
Chance of more success in negotiations?
US Senator Sheldon Whitehouse saw Al Jaber’s presidency as a “dark cloud” that hung over COP28 in Dubai, endangering the success of the conference negotiations. Last year, in an open letter to US and European colleagues, he called for the exclusion of oil and gas industry lobbyists from COP28. The reason for this was Al Jaber’s announcements that the interests of the fossil fuel industry would also be “on the table” during the negotiations in Dubai.
But some see Al Jaber’s dual role as an opportunity for success. It could help lead the nearly 200 participating states with their conflicting interests to an agreement, a European negotiator told AFP. Formulating a resolution text after two-week negotiations is normally difficult, as it must be adopted by consensus.
Science
Less scope for 1.5 degree target
The pressure to act is high
Either way, the pressure to act is high. The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees is becoming increasingly unrealistic, the UN recently warned. British Sunday newspaper The Observer sees COP28 as “virtually the last opportunity for humanity to change course and for delegates to agree on how to end our dependence on fossil fuels”.
Al Jaber says he wants to help “keep the 1.5 degree target within reach”. He “will work with everyone to develop a plan that is achievable, actionable, realistic and pragmatic and that produces real results.” Whether his presidency will lead to commitments equally significant to those made in 2015 with the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement will become clear from December 12th.