According to Maxime Bossis, it was a mistake that would never have been made today. “Nobody told me they always dived on the same side. It was a different world,” the former French defender said in an interview in July. “Today a coach or a player would have come to say to me: ‘Watch out, he always dives to his right!'”
It’s been more than 40 years since Bossis went down in history as the first player whose miss in a World Cup penalty shoot-out – through an opponent’s successful penalty – resulted in his country’s elimination. Introduced by Fifa for the 1982 tournament in Spain to replace the policy of replaying a tie, the first took place in Seville and saw – you guessed it – West Germany victorious over France.
“The coach gathered us around and asked: ‘Who wants to take a shot?'” recalled Alain Giresse, who scored the first penalty in a World Cup shoot-out. “The players were already taking off their shoes and saying, ‘Not me!'”
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Goalkeeper Harald Schumacher, who avoided a red card for his vicious bodyslam on substitute Patrick Battiston during regulation time, denied Bossis’ 11th penalty on penalties after Uli Stielike became the first player to miss with the sixth – West Germany’s third – and France’s Didier Six had also held one in seventh (France’s fourth). As Stuart Pearce will attest, Six started quite a trend.
In 32 World Cup shootouts to finish the last 16 in Qatar, teams were far more likely to miss their fourth penalty than any other, with 22 cases (36%) to date, including England’s Stuart Pearce in 1990. The dreaded fifth penalty, unsuccessful for Chris Waddle in that shootout and for David Batty in 1998, fares only slightly better with a 35% miss rate.
France’s Maxime Bossis stomps away after West Germany’s Harald Schumacher saves his penalty kick during the teams’ semi-final shoot-out at the 1982 World Cup. Photo: AFP/Getty ImagesBut if there is one particular penalty to avoid, it appears to be the fourth for the team finishing second – as Brazil’s Marquinhos discovered against Croatia on Friday. Prior to this game, the eighth total penalty in a shootout had been missed 11 of 29 times (38%) – more than any other regular 10. According to Gracenote stats, it also ran to the bottom of the last 16, only the 11th and 12th Penalties are more likely to be missed – at 50% – although only one shoot-out has gone that far since the first in 1982, when Romania’s failed goalscorer Miodrag Belodedici sent Sweden through to the 1994 semi-finals.
The overall penalty shootout success rate is 69% (a total of 294 penalties with 203 scored and 91 missed), but this number tops 70% in the first three rounds (penalties one through six) and drops drastically thereafter as the pressure mounts.
shooting success
England’s penalty shoot-out win over Colombia in 2018 finally broke the duck in World Cup shooting at the fourth attempt. Saturday’s opponents France have twice escaped from the World Cup quarter-finals on penalties: in 1986 against Brazil and in 1998 against Italy en route to the title.
But just as Gareth Southgate’s side lost the Euro 2020 final to Italy on penalties, more recent memories are not so good for Didier Deschamps after Kylian Mbappé was the culprit in the round of 16 defeat by Switzerland in the same tournament. And there was 2006 when David Trezeguet’s missed shot triumphed Italy in the World Cup final.
Should it come down to penalties on Saturday, winning the draw could be crucial given recent trends. Morocco’s win over Spain in the round of 16 in Qatar and Croatia’s win over Brazil have made them the only teams to win from the first shoot-out in their last nine World Cup shoot-outs, although around half have done so overall.
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There could also be some surprises in Southgate’s list of penalty takers. Of those team members who have scored five or more goals in all competitions, including penalties, since the start of the 2013/14 season, Harry Kane leads with 60 of 69 successful penalties (87%). Callum Wilson is next with an 85% win rate and defenders Harry Maguire and Eric Dier make it into the top five with 83% and 80% respectively.
England Top 5
Raheem Sterling (50%), Kieran Trippier (60%) and Mason Mount (70%) have the lowest success rates, but Marcus Rashford (82%) and Bukayo Saka (75% from four penalties) – who were racially abused after their missed shot Italy last year – could potentially expect to be called up again.
England bottom five
But maybe Jordan Pickford is Southgate’s secret weapon. The goalkeeper may not have saved a penalty in regular play for more than two years, but he did save two in the Euro 2020 final and scored the deciding penalty in the Nations League third-place play-off against Switzerland in June 2019. “If called, I’ll definitely take one,” he said before beating Senegal. Just make sure it’s not number eight.