This time last year, the Brewers found themselves in an unusual position: They were on the outside looking in on the eve of postseason play. Milwaukee had been a playoff team in each of the previous four years and was one game away from reaching the World Series in 2018.
But the Brewers will be back in the tournament in 2023. And with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, they’re looking to make a big splash this October.
Milwaukee’s opponent in the best-of-three National League Wild Card Series, starting Tuesday at 7:08 p.m. ET on ESPN2 at American Family Field, is no pushover. The D-Backs are in the postseason for the first time since 2017, and with a young and exciting core, Arizona is looking to surprise in a similar way to the start of the regular season.
So which team comes out on top at each position on the diamond and which team will advance to the NL Division Series against the Dodgers? Here’s a breakdown:
Catcher
The Brewers didn’t get much offensive production from the catcher position in 2022, so they traded for All-Star William Contreras from the Braves in the hopes that he would be a big improvement. He didn’t disappoint, hitting .291/.369/.459 with 17 home runs. Defensively, Contreras improved significantly behind the plate.
The D-Backs made a significant trade last offseason to secure some catching depth, sending Daulton Varsho to Toronto in exchange for top catcher prospect Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Moreno had a strong rookie season, particularly on defense, leading all MLB catchers in defensive runs saved and steals caught above average, and shutting out half of the runners who attempted steals against him (16 of 32 ). He held his own offensively, hitting .284/.339/.408 with seven home runs in 111 games.
This is close, but we give the nod to the more experienced backstop with more pop at the plate.
First base
The D-Backs’ Christian Walker continues to quietly put up big numbers at the plate while maintaining his status as one of the best defensive first basemen in the game. The 32-year-old hit 33 home runs in the regular season with a career-high 103 RBIs and an OPS of .830 and led all first basemen in Outs Above Average.
After a big year for Milwaukee in 2022 when he hit a career-best 35 homers, Rowdy Tellez took a step back this season. Limited to 106 games due to injury, he posted a .215/.291/.376 batting line with 13 home runs. He struggled mightily in September, hitting .189 with one extra-base hit and 13 strikeouts in 41 plate appearances.
While Tellez was injured, the Brewers acquired veteran Carlos Santana from the Pirates. Santana proved to be a strong addition, hitting a total of 11 home runs in 53 games.
Second base
Brice Turang had a strong defensive season at second base in his rookie season for the Brewers. But offensively, he’s a light hitter who had a .585 OPS in 137 games.
Arizona’s Ketel Marte is more of an average defender at the second position, but he is one of the better offensive players at the position. He hit 25 home runs and an .844 OPS for the D-Backs in his age-29 season this year, and he definitely offers superior value here.
Shortstop
The D-Backs saw their 23-year-old shortstop make major strides this season, earning him being named an All-Star for the first time. Geraldo Perdomo had an OPS of .787 at the All-Star break, but slumped in the second half with a slash line of .214/.322/.297. Still, there is reason for optimism about its future.
When Willy Adames was 23 years old, he played in his first full major league season for the Rays. Five years later, he has established himself as a strong all-around shortstop with the Brewers. In 2022, he hit a career-high 31 home runs and an OPS of .756. His performance at the plate in ’23 wasn’t as impressive, but he still hit 24 home runs and drove in 80 runs. He also has some postseason experience – this is his fourth trip to the playoffs.
Third base
Looking for a season-ending upgrade at hot corner, the Brewers turned to veteran third baseman Josh Donaldson, who was released by the Yankees on August 29. The 37-year-old was sidelined with a right calf strain and his own production at the plate was poor in New York.
Donaldson got off to a relatively good start with his new club, coming off the injured list and hitting three home runs in his first nine games. But since then he is 2-for-19 with two doubles.
The D-Backs also haven’t had much production at third base, but they are younger and more reliable at the position with Emmanuel Rivera. The 27-year-old has also been limited this year due to injury and his offensive performance during the regular season was lacking, but defensively he was solid.
Left field
At the start of the 2023 season, there was still a legitimate question as to whether Christian Yelich would ever come close to his 2018/19 form again. He was the Netherlands’ best batsman during this period, winning the MVP award in ’18 and finishing second in ’19. But Yelich put together his best offensive campaign since then, posting an .816 OPS with 19 home runs and 27 steals this year.
The D-Backs, meanwhile, got solid performance in left field thanks to newly acquired Gurriel and later Tommy Pham, whom they acquired from the Mets before the trade deadline. The two split time between left field and designated hitter – Gurriel finished with a .772 OPS and a career-high 24 homers, and Pham had a solid year overall with a .774 OPS and 16 homers between New York and Arizona.
Between the superior offensive performance and more postseason experience – Yelich has played in almost as many playoff games (16) as Gurriel and Pham combined (17) – the nod here goes to the former MVP.
midfield
Arizona’s Alek Thomas is a very good defensive center fielder with great closing speed, but his bat leaves a lot to be desired – he batted .230 with a .647 OPS in 126 games.
On the other hand, rookie Garrett Mitchell hasn’t had much opportunity to showcase his skills due to a shoulder injury that required surgery three weeks into the season. He exceeded all expectations by making it to the end before the end of the regular season, returning last Thursday against the Cardinals.
Whether Mitchell will be named to the postseason roster and what role he will play is uncertain, but given his impressive play when he was on the field – he made the Opening Day roster and scored three times in Milwaukee’s home-opening series against the Mets – he could make a difference.
If Mitchell isn’t the starter, another rookie, Sal Frelick, might patrol the middle of the Wild Card Series pack. Frelick has been one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball since making his MLB debut in late July, despite spending much of his time in right field.
Right field
Aside from Yelich, there isn’t much to work with when it comes to Milwaukee’s outfielders. Whether it’s Frelick, Tyrone Taylor or Blake Perkins in right field, they can’t keep up with the D-backs in that department.
That’s because Arizona has a right fielder who is likely to be the NL Rookie of the Year after becoming the first rookie in AL/NL history to hit 25 or more home runs (25 and 50) in the same season or more bases (54) were stolen.
Carroll even whispered “MVP candidate” during the first half of the season, when Carroll led the league in many offensive categories. The D-Backs have a clear advantage here.
Designated batsman
As mentioned above, the D-backs primarily used Gurriel and Pham at this spot in the second half of the season, and they’ve been relying on the latter lately. Although their overall performance was solid, we’ll go with the hot hand here.
Since being traded from the Mets to Milwaukee on July 31, Mark Canha has been a blessing for his new club, especially in the final month of the regular season. He hit .301/.387/.452 in September, helping the Brewers reach the finish line and secure the NL Central crown.
Start pitching
This is where the real division between these clubs begins. The D-Backs undoubtedly have two frontline starters who are among the best in baseball. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly were outstanding, a big reason why Arizona is in the playoffs for the first time in six years.
But the Brewers are well ahead of almost every starter in the majors. Former Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes and right-handers Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta will be tough to beat in a best-of-three series. And with Milwaukee winning the NL Central with a little time to spare, the Brewers were able to field those three for the opening round of the postseason.
The D-backs likely won’t have Gallen and Kelly until Game 2 and Game 3, respectively.
Relief pitching
If there is a gap between the Brewers and the D-Backs in starting pitching, there is a gap between the clubs when we talk about bullpens. Milwaukee’s relief corps finished the regular season in second place with a 3.40 ERA, while Arizona’s relievers combined for an 18th-place ERA of 4.22.
If the D-backs fall behind late, the lights could go out, especially if they see Brewers closer Devin Williams come out of the bullpen. Williams seamlessly took over for Josh Hader when he moved to the Padres last year. He posted a 1.53 ERA with 36 saves and struck out 38 percent of the batters he faced.
Arizona traded Paul Sewald from Seattle as its new closer before the trade deadline, but he struggled in his first month with the D-backs. He had a 4.66 ERA in August before righting the ship to a 2.25 ERA in September.
It would be the D-backs’ job to score early, as postseason contests against the Brewers can quickly become too close when Milwaukee is ahead.
forecast
The big difference here is pitching from top to bottom. Since the Brewers can field their big three and the D-backs don’t have the luxury of sending Gallen or Kelly out for Game 1, that could be a big advantage for Milwaukee. And as the October shadows lengthen in the later innings as games progress, the Brewers bullpen is simply overwhelming. The D-Backs will show some fight, but they will have their hands full.