As war rages in Ukraine, Chinese Foreign Minister Wing Yi stressed on Monday that the friendship between Beijing and Moscow is “strong as a rock.” At the same time, the minister announced the sending of humanitarian aid to Ukraine. But then what is China really playing at? Answer from Valerie Niquet, Asia Specialist at the Strategic Research Foundation.
An impeccable friendship with Russia, a possible international mediation to end the war in Ukraine… from the very beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, China has “taken an indecisive position,” says Valerie Niquet, Asia specialist at the Foundation for Strategic Studies, in an interview with La La Depeche. “The Chinese are waiting to see how the situation develops,” he said. According to the specialist, the Chinese government “wants to give the impression that it is above all this, that it does not take sides. In fact, it’s just to avoid punishment on the one hand, as on the other, ”says the expert. .
Balancing
Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping has seemed to be walking on eggshells. On the one hand, “he doesn’t want to break off relations with Russia, because if she emerges victorious from this invasion, and he is no longer on good terms, this will put China in a very uncomfortable position,” the specialist explains. On the other hand, “the Chinese economy absolutely needs the rest of the world. If they continue to do too much business with the Russians, the Chinese could suffer indirectly from the economic sanctions imposed on Vladimir Putin by the European Union and the United States,” says Valerie Nike.
A delicate position that puts China at the center of a difficult game. “Many countries are saying that China can put pressure on Putin to end the conflict. I don’t think they can or even want to. However, they will probably try to play with it. May allow them to renegotiate economic and trade sanctions, which The United States has been imposing them for several years, ”the specialist warns.
Thus, by giving the impression “that they are above the fray, the Chinese are saving themselves. Neither for nor against, they will remain in a wait-and-see position,” predicts Valerie Nike.
China, between Kiev and Moscow
Historically, Sino-Russian relations have not always been as rosy as they are today. However, since 2014, the two powers have come together to “create a new model of international relations”: “When the European Union imposed economic sanctions on Russia, Beijing and Moscow came together to show Western people that the two countries are not alone. “, – says the specialist. Then their union was sealed by common interests.
But at the same time, since 2019, “China has been the first economic partner of Ukraine, which was located at the foothold of the Chinese Silk Road. Many companies [chinoises] installed there.” This, in particular, explains these transitions between solidarity for Ukraine and declarations of friendship with Russia.
In addition, “many Chinese students were involved in the war in Ukraine. This creates an image problem for the government, which is not in a position to evacuate or protect them, since China is not going to send devices to pick them up,” explains Valerie Nike. .
If, as he said, the Chinese government sends humanitarian aid to Ukraine, “we will know very quickly. In general, they like to put themselves in this role, but in terms of the reality and the amount of aid sent, we will have to wait to see specifically what this gives, ”the specialist warns.