The trading deadline is fast approaching and it’s time to analyze what’s out there.
As always, the trade market offers a variety of different options, from difference makers to depth pieces that can take a team over the top or plug some much-needed holes. There’s something for everyone and I wanted to explore the most intriguing names available and analyze what to expect from them.
With an analytical bent, I dove deep into three categories of players: the biggest names, the under-the-radar types, and of course, the red flags.
This post focuses on the under-the-radar types, players known as commodities but potentially flying under the radar as depth players, buying low options, or running reclamation projects. They’re people who could make a bigger difference than most would expect – and cost less as a result.
Here are the five players flying under the radar at this year’s trading deadline, and what to expect from each of them.
Well, well, well – if it isn’t another analytical post that speaks poetically of the worth of Jesse Puljujarvi. Let’s get that straight right at the start: Puljujarvi has been a below reserve player this season. His harshest detractors may have been on to something last season, when Puljujarvi’s most fervent supporters hailed him as a top-line talent. The results certainly made it seem so, but with his performance this season, it might just have been a McDavid-induced mirage.
Puljujarvi’s career is at a crossroads. The 24-year-old was drafted fourth in the 2016 draft but has struggled to consistently live up to that statistic. There were flashes, but clearly not enough to justify the Oilers wanting to keep him around. He’s a reclamation project and arguably a worthy one given his pedigree and performance over the past two seasons.
The comparison many draw with Puljujarvi is that of Valeri Nichushkin — a player who looked like he had little to offer on offense early in his NHL-level career. He scored zero goals in 57 games in 2018-19 with the Stars at the age of 23, which makes Puljujarvi look like a sniper by comparison. Still, Nichushkin showed promise with his ability to suppress odds, and the Avalanche risked it with him the following year. Since then, they obviously haven’t looked back.
I’m not suggesting that Puljujarvi will follow the same path, but given his background, he’s a player worth being patient with. He has a history of showing he can deliver strong results in a top-six role and while that was with the best player in the world, it’s telling that McDavid’s numbers have fallen without Puljujarvi – particularly in defence. Offensively he needs help, no question, but at least he’s not a liability out there.
Puljujarvi is not a perfect player but a change of scenery could do wonders for him. With the Oilers desperate to get away from him, a potential team would probably do well to take advantage of this at a bargain price.
After years as a center six goalscorer, Nick Bjugstad spent the three seasons prior to this one struggling in the bottom six. A player who has been a bit tough from the injury virus. This year he got another shot at something bigger with the Arizona Coyotes and proved himself in the process.
In 55 games, Bjugstad has only managed 13 goals and 23 points, which isn’t much to write home about. But at five-a-side, Bjugstad is rocking a rate of 1.63 points per 60, which puts him squarely in mid-six territory. That’s passable (and better than Ryan O’Reilly and Max Domi for teams looking for centres), but that doesn’t make Bjugstad all that intriguing. It’s his defense where the Coyotes have conceded just 2.53 expected goals conceded per 60 and 2.1 actual goals conceded per 60. Both stats are among the team’s best, so his relative influence has been very strong.
Bjugstad has a surprisingly long track record with strong underlying numbers, with six straight seasons having an above-average relative impact. This is Bjugstad’s first year at this stage where his actual expected goal percentage has been under 50 per cent, and that probably has more to do with the team he plays for than his own game. Despite the poor environment, the Coyotes still managed to score 55 percent of goals with Bjugstad on the ice. That’s huge given the context.
The most important part of Bjugstad’s results is that he’s not just doing it in a protected role — he’s doing it as Arizona’s second-line center. And mostly thrive with opportunity. The Coyotes don’t really adapt to their lines, but it’s worth noting that Bjugstad faces the toughest duties of the team. He doesn’t get eaten alive despite the big role, he holds his own and that’s a very good sign of a competitive team.
If Bjugstad does that in a big role on a bad team, chances are he can thrive in a much smaller role on a much better team. Forget the Sam Lafferty hype. If a team is looking for a responsible bottom-six center that can deliver strong defensive results, Bjugstad is a better option.
Oh yeah, and he’s 6’6″ tall too – because that’s important.
If size matters, that’s probably reason enough why Conor Garland isn’t the hottest commodity — and why the Canucks are exploring the idea of walking away from him. He plays taller than he is, but at 1.75m and 75kg there is still reason to doubt his overall performance in a playoff atmosphere. As one of the lightest players in the league, it’s difficult to thrive in a tougher environment. Resume his contract, $4.95 million for three more seasons, and Garland’s value as an asset doesn’t seem very strong. Especially in a bad year.
Still, Garland gets results. Results typically worth $5 million per season. Cam Charron covered this at length with an impassioned post about his worth last week, and it’s probably no surprise that two analytically savvy folks see eye to eye with him.
Garland’s impact on actual and expected goal difference has been positive in each of the last five seasons. Typically, his teams score over 55 percent of goals and 52 percent of expected goals with him on the ice, which says a lot given the quality of the teams he’s on. That is, until this season, where he’s only scoring about 47-48 percent of actual and expected goals. Given his constant relative influence, it’s probably more because the team is failing him than because Garland is failing the team.
Garland hasn’t produced as much in recent years and his scoring chances contribution ratio has fallen, but even his numbers in a declining year have been decent. If that’s Garlands Floor, he’s still a worthy player to hone in on as someone who can offer capable second-line production at five-on-five. As ground. In his prime, Garland averaged 2.52 points per 60 over the past two seasons, which is the kind of efficient depth scoring that can take a playoff team to the top of a series. It’s a mid-range luxury.
Vancouver isn’t entirely wrong in wanting out given the team’s massive salary commitments on the wing, but that may be another team’s win.
A surprising name given Seattle’s current playoff standings, but if the Kraken do start making offers for Carson Soucy, he would be a very interesting acquisition for a team looking to play a defensive role.
Soucy is everything general managers are looking for this season: a tough but agile defensive back with size. Soucy is all of that – he just doesn’t play hard minutes. That’s the sticking point here, but the main difference between Soucy and the available defenders who play hard is that these players play higher up the lineup out of necessity, not talent.
That and Soucy is not a liability in his role. He actually achieves results that consistently break the expected goals while posting a very strong goal tally. Perhaps those results wouldn’t make it higher up the lineup, but that’s not definitive. We already know they don’t do it for the Gavrikovs and Edmundsons of the world. Soucy has the potential to surprise, much like Brett Kulak did last year.
What makes Soucy an attractive asset is that opposing players have had a very difficult time scoring goals while he’s on the ice, year after year. Soucy consistently allows fewer chances than his teammates, but his impact on actual goals conceded is even greater. Over four years that makes sense and in 3254 minutes his teams conceded 0.49 fewer goals per 60 with him on the ice than offside. That’s one of the highest marks in the league.
That’s likely influenced by the weaker competition he’s playing against, but there are elements in his game that seem strong enough to place higher up the lineup. That year, Soucy was the team’s best defenseman for Seattle when it came to recovering pucks and converting them to zone exits. He was also one of the most effective defenders in the league at defending onslaught. Soucy is targeted 26 times per 60 for zone entries but has only allowed a scoring chance on 2.6 of those. That’s a fantastic ratio, not far off Jaccob Slavin’s – although there are obviously worlds in difficulty. Soucy only allows 39 percent of entries, which ranks second in the league to John Marino, and breaks open 16 percent of entries, which also ranks high across the league.
Seattle won’t just give Soucy away, not in the middle of a playoff run. But the Kraken seem to be listening if the right offer comes along. I don’t think any defender on the market is worth the alleged requests for someone like Gavrikov, but if I had a choice for the same price, I’d pick Soucy without hesitation.
When Anthony Mantha traded for Jakub Vrana, it felt like a seismic moment of the trade deadline. What could Mantha be capable of in a new team? How would Vrana fare in a bigger role? As it turns out, the deal was a mutual dud for both sides, but for Vrana, that has more to do with his inability to stay in the lineup than anything else.
Last season, Vrana was limited to just 26 games with the Red Wings, but it’s easy to forget that he had 13 goals and 19 points in those 26 games. In his first 11 games after the swap, he had eight goals and 11 points. Even in the two singles games he played this year, Vrana had a goal and an assist. When he’s in, he has a pace of 46 goals and 67 points. The problem is how rare that was.
Still, it came as a big shock when Vrana came back from his time with the NHL and NHLPA Player Assistance Program and was promptly suspended during an AHL condition streak. Vrana is not an AHL player, quite the opposite. He’s got plenty of scoring chances to make a future team and scoring chances worth the $4.5 million he’s owed this season and next.
Vrana isn’t the best defensive player and that’s definitely a concern for a potential playoff team, but his ability to score efficiently is extremely rare and that can make him incredibly useful as a center six goalscorer. Since the 2020-21 season, Vrana has averaged 1.65 goals per 60 in five-a-side, a rate surpassed by exactly one player: Auston Matthews. On points per 60, he ranks in the top 10 at 2.79, sandwiched between Matthew Tkachuk and Nikita Kucherov.
That’s not to say Vrana is a player of this caliber, let alone a goalscorer. There’s a difference between scoring in the middle six and at the top of the lineup at this rate. But the key is how efficiently he can do a forward’s primary job: getting pucks into the net. Few can match the ferocious frequency at which Vrana can do it. He deserves another chance for that.
Data on Evolving Hockey, All Three Zones, Natural Stat Trick and NHL.
(Top photo by Nick Bjugstad: Jerome Miron / USA Today)