Amid a tense political and security climate, Congo's vast Kinshasa is preparing to vote on Wednesday for risky parliamentary elections that could entrench it in democracy or provoke new violence.
Almost 44 million voters out of a total population of around 100 million are called upon to elect their president, their national and regional representatives and their local councils.
Outgoing president Félix Tshisekedi, 60, is seeking a second five-year term, although the opposition is splintered and has been unable to agree on a common candidate for this single-round election.
More than 100,000 candidates are applying for the four elections, the organization of which represents a real challenge in a country with an area of 2.3 million square kilometers and a largely lacking infrastructure.
Until the last minute, doubts will remain about the ability of the Electoral Commission (CÉNI) to equip the 175,478 polling stations it plans to open with “voting machines”, ballot papers and other materials.
That might be fine for “the capitals, the cities, the municipalities,” “but in rural areas places are difficult to access” because of a lack of motorable roads or insecurity, AFP notes left-handed political scientist Kizito Mbusa.
Eight days before the vote, the government called on the UN mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which it is nevertheless calling for to be withdrawn due to perceived ineffectiveness, to provide it with logistical assistance beyond the three eastern provinces that are victims of the violence by armed groups in which it is used.
The Security Council approved this request on Friday.
But “not all offices will be open on December 20th because not all of them will be equipped,” estimates a diplomat interviewed by AFP, not ruling out that some will not open until the 21st, 22nd or even later, which raises fears even more chaos.
In a report released Saturday, Human Rights Watch warned of electoral violence that “could jeopardize the conduct of the vote.” Since the beginning of October, the NGO says it has documented clashes between supporters of rival parties, which resulted in “assaults, sexual violence and at least one death”.
The campaign was relatively calm given the Democratic Republic of Congo's violent political past, where the 2018 elections were hard-fought but marked the first peaceful transition.
“hate speech”
But “intolerance has found its way” into the debate, complains the political scientist, while the diplomat worries about “hate speech” taking precedence over ideas and projects.
The announcement of the results could be the moment of all danger.
Strong suspicions are weighing on the transparency of the vote; opponents say they are convinced that fraud has been in the making for a long time. If the official figures agree with those of observers appointed by churches in particular, analysts say the violence will be limited, but not if they differ from each other.
There is also the question of whether the vanquished will accept defeat, notes Mr. Kizito.
The presidential candidates were initially 26. Three days before the vote there are 19, after the withdrawal of four in favor of the opponent and rich businessman Moïse Katumbi, 58, and three in favor of Félix Tshisekedi.
Other opponents in the ranks include Martin Fayulu, 67, who claims his victory in the 2018 election was stolen from him, and Dr. Denis Mukwege, 68, Nobel Peace Prize winner for his work on behalf of women who have been raped.
In terms of the resources used and the crowds gathered during the campaign, Félix Tshisekedi and Moïse Katumbi “stand out from the crowd,” say analysts, with some even assuring that the election will be between the two men.
The climate of the campaign was also poisoned by the security situation in the east of the country, where tensions have peaked for two years with the resurgence of a rebellion (M23) backed by neighboring Rwanda.
Fighting has calmed down for about a week, but rebels continue to occupy large areas of North Kivu.
In its report, HRW notes that more than 1.5 million Congolese “cannot vote in conflict-affected areas” and that “millions are displaced.” […] may also not be entitled to vote.
The campaign ends on Monday evening. Until then, the meetings will continue.