The superiority of the Chinese political system, according to its leaders and supporters, is that it is better at thinking long-term than the democracies. However, one key area seems to be an exception or even prove the opposite: demographics. While Chinese authorities have just acknowledged that the world’s most populous country began seeing a population decline in 2022, a first in 61 years, they are minimizing the phenomenon by pretending to believe it is linked to Covid-19. So there would be nothing to worry about.
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But everything points to the opposite. The end of the one-child policy has not led to a baby boom, on the contrary. The fertility rate is falling every year and is even lower than in the 35 years (1979-2015) that this measure lasted. Result: According to the UN, China could lose around half of its population by the end of the century.
China is no exception. It follows the same path as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. But unlike in these countries, the topic is not discussed publicly in China. It’s even widely denied by the authorities. Demographic decline is a major challenge for Xi Jinping. He said at the 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress in 2017 that “East, West, South, North, Center, the Party rules everything.” The decline in fertility proves that this is not the case. We can also congratulate ourselves. And while this is not only due to the regime’s political nature, as democracies also face it, it makes the “Chinese dream” even more inaccessible.
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declining economic growth
As the years go by, it becomes harder for China to innovate. Not only because fewer and fewer young people will enter the labor market, but also because its social spending will skyrocket in response to an aging population. A population decline is not necessarily a disaster. But it’s forcing governments to make painful decisions and address unpopular issues like extending working lives or increasing immigration. China is in no way prepared for this and, contrary to what it claims, its political system is a handicap.
By promising only a happy tomorrow and only publishing statistics favorable to the regime, the Chinese Communist Party lies to the people and covers their faces. Intoxicated by a quarter-century of extraordinary economic growth, the party is convinced that its past successes guarantee it a bright future. Probably wrong.
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Economic growth has tended to slow since Xi Jinping came to power in 2012. In 2022, China even recorded weaker growth than its neighbors in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The country, now viewed as a rival by many Western countries, faces geostrategic challenges as well as economic imbalances and significant social problems. This is not good news for China, which is led by a man who will soon be in his 70s and intends to stay in power for another ten or fifteen years. But if the regime tightens, perhaps neither does the rest of the world.
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