The Nova Kakhovka Dam on June 5th. Maxar Technologies/Handout via Portal
In early June, the destruction of a dam caused flooding along the Dnieper River in southern Ukraine.
Russia is suspected of destroying the dam to disrupt Ukrainian military operations in the region.
But the flooding altered nearby shorelines and waterways, which could ultimately benefit Ukrainian forces.
In early June, explosions ruptured the Nova Kakhovka Dam and hydroelectric power station, releasing a multi-billion-gallon reservoir and flooding cities along the Dnieper River in southern Ukraine.
The demolition of the Soviet-designed dam appears to have been orchestrated by Russian forces, likely to deny Ukrainian troops access to nearby territory as their long-awaited counteroffensive began.
But the flow of water flowing down the Dnieper towards the important city of Kherson has altered the surrounding waterways and forced the Russian military to withdraw from certain locations.
A changed coastline, a larger sea area and fewer Russian troops could benefit Ukraine. In fact, the destruction of the dam could be crucial for Ukraine’s special forces.
A “playground” for special operations
Ukrainian troops guard a flooded area in Kherson June 8.Maxym Marusenko/NurPhoto via Getty Images
The rapid draining of the reservoir has uncovered remnants of past battles, including a human skull apparently wearing a WWII-era German helmet. Downriver there are now tens of thousands of acres of new naval battlespace.
The Russian military has already had to move troops out of the area in response to Ukrainian attacks elsewhere, and patrolling and protecting the new coastline will pose another challenge for Russian forces – and a potential opportunity for Ukraine.
“While Russia now sees the terrain south of Kherson as safe, Ukrainian special forces should see an opportunity. With a new coastline and fewer opposing forces, the southern Kherson region could become a special operations playground,” said Timothy Heck and Zachary Griffiths, both US military officers, writing in an article for the Modern War Institute at West Point.
The story goes on
A flooded residential area in Kherson on June 8. Alex Babenko/Getty Images
New and larger waterways will make it easier for Ukrainian special forces to transport men and equipment by boat. According to Heck and Griffiths, with easier access, Ukrainian commandos operating from the Kherson area could use drones and missiles to threaten Russian communications and supply lines to Crimea.
Ukrainian troops in the region could also use shoulder-launched missiles to threaten Russian planes flying to and from Crimea, potentially forcing them to use longer routes instead.
“With Russia drawing significant support from Crimea, disrupting communications through increased special operations in South Kherson could certainly aid Ukraine’s counteroffensive,” Heck and Griffiths write.
Ukrainian troops and volunteers evacuate a flooded area in Kherson June 8.GENYA SAVILOV/AFP via Getty Images
Ukrainian special forces have been very actively involved in the ongoing Kiev counter-offensive in the Donbass region and southern Ukraine.
A recent video appears to show commandos from Ukraine’s 73rd Naval Center of Special Operations, a secret Navy SEAL-like unit, clearing a Russian trench and killing several Russian soldiers during fighting in southern Ukraine.
In addition to direct operations, Ukrainian special forces have also used disposable attack drones to disrupt and weaken Russian forces by destroying heavy weapons, including main battle tanks, artillery pieces and armored personnel carriers.
But soon Ukrainian commandos could support an amphibious operation in southern Ukraine.
Commandos and amphibious operations of Ukraine
The collapsed Antonovskiy Bridge over the Dnieper River in the city of Kherson, seen after the withdrawal of Russian troops in November. Narciso Contreras/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
Ukrainian military leaders have certainly contemplated a major amphibious operation across the Dnieper. Recent security aid shows that Ukraine’s NATO partners had similar thoughts.
In March, the White House approved a military-aid package that included armored-vehicle-launched bridges and heavy-duty systems that move with armored columns, allowing them to cross rivers, streams, trenches and trenches.
What makes armored vehicle-launched bridges particularly useful is their ability to detach and re-deploy across another obstacle.
During an exercise in January 1985, an armored vehicle launched M60 bridge is laid across the German Lahn river. US Department of Defense/Tech Sgt. Boyd Belcher
Germany also provided 23 Beaver armored bridges and 20 heavy and medium bridge systems. In addition, the UK has launched an “urgent bidding round” to the industry for medium girder bridges, bridge launchers and reusable bridges capable of supporting Ukraine’s new M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, as well as Ukraine’s Challenger 2 and Leopard 2 tanks.
Should the Ukrainian military conduct an amphibious operation in Kherson or Crimea, naval commandos will play a key role in scouting, surveying and clearing potential beaches. They could also be used to distract Russian forces with diversionary attacks elsewhere on the battlefield.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive is still in its early stages, but judging from what has been seen so far, special forces will play a crucial role in Kiev’s push to liberate its country and people.
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a defense journalist specializing in special operations, a veteran of the Hellenic Army (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army Headquarters) and a graduate of Johns Hopkins University. He is pursuing a master’s degree in Strategy and Cybersecurity from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
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