Global warming will change the distribution of precipitation over at least a third of the Earth's surface by the end of the century. Discover the countries where the rains are getting weaker and the countries are getting heavier. In this ranking, France stands out as a rather special case with strong seasonal contrasts.
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The distribution of precipitation will change over at least 38% of the Earth's surface by the end of the century, announces a study published in Nature Communications. Therefore, 3 billion people will face a significant climate change that will result in them receiving much less rain, or on the contrary, much more! If global warming continues at the same rate as today, the water cycle will continue to be disrupted. Australian researchers therefore simulated the development of precipitation using climate prediction models, taking into account greenhouse gas emissions, but also large natural cycles such as El Niño and La Niña.
The countries most affected by a change in their rainfall
The results of 146 climate models were analyzed to derive perspectives on different regions of the world. In this way, the researchers were able to identify the top 5 countries where rainfall will decrease significantly:
- Greece;
- Spain;
- Palestine;
- Portugal;
- the Morocco.
Conversely, scientists have also identified the top 5 countries where rainfall will increase significantly:
- Finland;
- North Korea;
- Russia;
- Canada;
- Norway.
And to a lesser extent, rainfall is also expected to be heavier in China and India. For France, but also for the United Kingdom and Germany, the results are more complex: rainfall will be increasingly lower in summer and heavier in winter. For these three countries, the annual average will ultimately not be all that different from what we know today, but the seasonal contrasts will be more extreme. For other countries, the different forecast models may not agree: This applies to Australia, Central Europe, Southwest Asia, West Africa and large parts of South America.
Major climate change is possible on 66% of the planet
However, these results are only a rather optimistic average of the development of the current climate. The researchers based this on current greenhouse gas emissions and the warming power we currently know.
But in the case of a scenario with much higher emissions (knowing that they are increasing every year on a global scale), the distribution of rain over most of the planet will change, and not just by 38%. Up to 66% of the Earth's surface, or 5 billion people, could experience a major change in rainfall.