- By Tessa Wong
- Asia Digital Reporter, BBC News
1 hour ago
Image source: Getty Images
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The officials’ disappearance could be seen as a sign of instability in Mr. Xi’s leadership or a show of strength
They enjoyed the trust and favor of Xi Jinping. Now they seem to be disappearing.
In recent months, the disappearances of several senior Chinese officials have sparked intense speculation about whether Mr. Xi is conducting a purge, particularly of those linked to the military.
The latest person to appear to have fallen from grace is Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who has not been seen in public for several weeks.
While his absence was not initially viewed as unusual, scrutiny intensified when a senior US diplomat pointed it out. A Portal report later said that General Li, who previously oversaw arms procurement for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), was being investigated over purchases of military equipment.
His “disappearance” comes weeks after two top officials of the Rocket Forces – the military arm that controls nuclear missiles – and a military judge were deposed.
Now new rumors are circulating that some cadres of the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which controls the armed forces, are also being investigated.
Other than “health reasons,” there is little to no official explanation for these distances. In this void, speculation flourished.
The main theory is that authorities are cracking down on corruption in the PLA.
The military is on heightened alert – in July it issued an unusual appeal asking the public for information about corruption over the past five years. Mr Xi also launched a new round of inspections, traveling across the country to make five visits to military bases since April, according to checks by BBC Monitoring.
Corruption has long been a problem in the military, particularly since China began liberalizing its economy in the 1970s, noted James Char, a research fellow at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore who studies the relationship between the CCP and the military.
Each year, China spends more than a trillion yuan on the military, some of which goes into procurement transactions that cannot be fully disclosed for national security reasons. This lack of transparency is exacerbated by China’s centralized one-party system.
Unlike the kind of public scrutiny that other countries’ militaries face, China’s armed forces are monitored exclusively by the CCP, Dr. Char.
While Mr. Xi has had some success in curbing corruption within the armed forces and partially restoring its reputation, “eradicating corruption is a monumental, if not impossible, undertaking” as it would require what I fear are “systemic redesigns.” “We are reluctant to allow the authoritarian state to remain in place,” Dr Char added.
“As long as the CCP government is unwilling to establish a proper legal system that is no longer self-sanctioned, such purges will continue to occur.”
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General Li Shangfu has not been seen in public for weeks
But the disappearance could also be attributed to increasing paranoia within the Chinese government as it navigates its difficult relationship with the United States.
An expanded counterintelligence law came into force in China in July, giving authorities more power and reach to conduct investigations. Soon after, China’s Ministry of State Security publicly encouraged citizens to help them combat espionage activities.
General Li’s disappearance is reminiscent of the disappearance of Foreign Minister Qin Gang, whose ouster in July also sparked intense speculation. This week, the Wall Street Journal reported that Mr. Qin was under investigation for an alleged extramarital affair that resulted in a child being born in the United States.
“Having an affair doesn’t mean you disqualify yourself from the elite [Communist Party] “But with someone suspected of having ties to foreign intelligence and fathering a child who holds the passport of your main geopolitical rival, if not your enemy, it may be now,” noted China analyst Bill Bishop.
There is also speculation that Mr. Xi is acting under pressure from within his party to clear the stables as China struggles with a slowing post-coronavirus economy and rising youth unemployment. In China’s political system, Mr. Xi is not only China’s president but also the supreme leader of the military.
Viewed from one perspective, the disappearances are a sign of instability in Mr. Xi’s leadership.
Observers have pointed out that General Li and Mr. Qin, who were not only ministers but also held senior positions as state councilors, were favored by Mr. Xi. Their sudden demise could therefore be seen as a lack of judgment on the part of the Chinese president.
If one views the disappearance as a political purge, then the fact that he had to carry it out so soon after consolidating power at last year’s party conference, where he successfully neutralized potential rival factions and filled key committees with his allies, is a bad omen .
The other view, however, is that it is another demonstration of Mr Xi’s strength.
Mr. Xi, the son of a purged CCP official, is famous for his public crackdown on corruption – which observers say doubles as political purges aimed at rooting out his enemies.
Since Mao Zedong, no other Chinese leader has come close to the scale of Mr. Xi’s crackdowns. They are estimated to have captured thousands of cadres and targeted both lower and top-level officials over the years, starting with his “tigers and flies” campaign launched shortly after he took office in 2013 became.
In 2017, he targeted the armed forces and fired more than 100 senior officers. At the time, state news agency Xinhua said in an article that the number “far exceeds the number of generals killed in wars to create the new China.”
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Mr. Qin was viewed as favored by Mr. Xi
The biggest question, however, is what signal the recent cases of enforced disappearances send and what their ultimate impact is.
Observers say they are creating a climate of fear in the military and government. Although this may be the intended outcome to ensure compliance, it would also have a demoralizing effect.
Years of systematically rooting out those who have fallen from grace and filling top posts with his followers may mean that Mr. Xi has surrounded himself with yes-men. The risk of groupthink lies in the “actual instability” of Mr. Xi’s leadership, as this could have a negative impact on China’s national security and foreign policy, noted Dr. Char.
In fact, the disappearances occurred during a tense period in the Taiwan Strait, with China sending more warships and military jets there in recent weeks.
Any disruption in communications on foreign policy and defense diplomacy would be “particularly concerning” as “accidents could happen and managing an escalation could become more difficult,” said Ian Chong, a non-resident fellow at think tank Carnegie China.
But others argue that China’s military leadership is robust enough to withstand the replacement of some top officials, noting that it has been careful to operate below the threshold of war.
Still others believe the disappearance is unlikely to have a long-term impact on Mr. Xi’s leadership stability. None of the cadres targeted so far belong to his inner circle, emphasized Neil Thomas, an expert on Chinese elite politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
Most observers agree that these incidents highlight the opacity of the Chinese system. “It exacerbates the question of the continuity of policy implementation and the credibility of any promises or assurances at working level,” noted Dr. Chong.
Ultimately, the disappearance of these officers fueled a “resulting unease.”
Additional reporting from BBC Monitoring.