The Dodgers will not offer a contract Cody Bellinger for his final year of arbitration, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected a salary of around $18.1 million for the 2019 NL MVP. Bellinger will be a free agent once the team officially announces the decision.
It’s not a surprising move at this point, but it’s one that no one could have predicted when Bellinger accepted his MVP trophy three years ago. He has blasted 47 homers this season and has an overall .305/.406/.629 in 661 plate appearances. The left-hander seemed to have cemented himself as one of the sport’s preeminent hitters, and he carried a career .278/.368/.559 in over 1800 plate appearances into 2020. At the age of 24, Bellinger seemed like a rising superstar.
Unfortunately, things have gone downhill in recent seasons. He stumbled a little during the truncated 2020 campaign, posting a .239/.333/.455 line in 56 games. That was still above average production, but a notable step down from the numbers of its first seasons. A lazy in-game batting average of .245 appeared to be a major cause, and one could certainly point to the anomalous circumstances this year when one expected a rebound.
That’s not how things turned out, which appears to be due in part to an ill-advised celebration this postseason. Bellinger dislocated his right shoulder while hitting a crucial home run in Game 7 of the 2020 NLCS. While playing the postseason, he underwent surgery in mid-November. Bellinger was healthy enough to open the 2021 campaign on the roster but he struggled with a series of unrelated leg and rib problems. In between, his slash line plummeted to a meager .165/.240/.302 in 95 games.
LA brought him back last winter and avoided arbitration for a $17 million salary. However, their hoped-for bounceback season didn’t really materialize. Bellinger’s 2022 numbers are improved on last year, but fall nowhere near those of previous seasons. In 550 trips to the plate he has set a mark of 0.210/0.265/0.389. That brings him to exactly 900 plate appearances in the last two years hitting .193/.256/.355. His on-base percentage is the lowest among the 151 hitters with more than 900 trips to the dish, while his batting average surpasses only Joey Gallo. He’s sixth from the bottom in slugging.
Bellinger’s racquetball metrics and power output are down a step, which may indicate he never quite regained the explosiveness of his swing after shoulder surgery. However, he has also seen a significant increase in strikeouts, fanning out 27.1% of the time after bringing his strikeout rate below 18% in 2019-20. His walk percentage fell to a below-average 7.7%, and manager Dave Roberts has kept him falling down the batting order.
With two full seasons of offensive struggles on their hands, the Dodgers chose to move on rather than pay the two-time All-Star near $18 million. That always seemed to be more than even the issuing franchise would be willing to pay, and it stands to reason that no other club was willing to offer that sort of salary either. The Dodgers have probably spent the past few weeks assessing the trading market for Bellinger, and his being fired for nothing suggests there wasn’t much interest at that price.
However, there is no question that teams will find it attractive as a bounceback destination at a lower cost. To Bellinger’s credit, his offensive struggles don’t interfere with his work on the field. He’s an elite runner who made the switch to midfield full-time after rising as a first baseman and corner outfielder. Defensive Runs Saved has ranked him as about an average midfielder for the past two years, but Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast have ranked him above average. Statcast was the most optimistic, rating him seven runs above average in just under 1900 innings of midfield work since the start of the 2021 campaign.
Slightly above average infield defense and plus baserunning give Bellinger decent ground, even if he doesn’t hit well, although he obviously plays a bit more at range than a traditional all-glove outfielder. He will be looking for a full reset offensively but heading into his campaign at the age of 27 he could certainly still rediscover some of his old form on the plate.
Unlisted players are not subject to waivers, so Bellinger will be a free agent. He and his representatives at Boras Corporation will have the opportunity to gauge interest from other teams and will benefit from a lack of midfield offers. Excluded from Aaron Richterformer Met Brandon Nimmo is the best midfielder available in free agency. Bellinger will arguably be the next best option in a class that also includes Kevin Kiermaier, Adam Duval and Jackie Bradley Jr.
The Mets, Blue Jays, Marlins, Rangers, Rays, Rockies, Astros, Padres and Giants (a team managed by former LA manager Farhan Zaidi) could all look outside for help at center. They’re speculative fits for Bellinger, and the Dodgers themselves could keep in touch about a lower-priced reunion.
Los Angeles could give Mookie Betts, ChrisTaylor or Trayce Thompson reinforced run in midfield, but it stands to reason they will also be scouring the market for help outside of the organization. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (on twitter) look at Kiermaier as part of this search.
After subtracting Bellinger’s arbitration projection, LA is left with approximately $152 million in projected 2023 payrolls per roster resource pending further arbitration decisions. They are estimated to have around $169 million in tax liabilities on luxury goods, leaving them well short of the base tax threshold of $233 million next year. That doesn’t include an approximate $20 million salary Clayton Kershaw, which is reportedly nearing a re-signing deal. Still, the Dodgers should have plenty of financial headroom to address shortstop, center field, third base, and depth of rotation, which look like the team’s biggest question marks as the offseason begins.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.