Many in Germany fear that Donald Trump could be elected US President in November 2024 and, as US head of state, leave Europe to its fate. There is even talk of the US leaving NATO. Is Trump's re-election realistic? Joshua Curry is American, lives in Berlin and works as a developer for the Berlin publisher. He is convinced that Trump has no chance in the elections. Here are the 11 reasons he uses to explain his opinion.
1. Twitter is dead. Successor portal X has very little power and discursive influence in the United States. Trump's election as president of the USA had something directly to do with his Twitter messages and activities in that country. All of that is over. Facebook has been dead for many years.
2. The four preachers of the apocalypse were defeated. Fox's Bill O'Reilly, Fox's Tucker Carlson, InfoWars' Alex Jones, and the NRA's Wayne LaPierre have all been fired from their positions, resigned, or are playing lesser roles. They were important voices for the Republican Party and especially for Trump. There are no comparable substitutes that can promote Trump propaganda.
Announcement | Scroll to continue reading
Good morning, Berlin Bulletin
Thanks for signing up.
You will receive a confirmation by email.
3. Almost no one in the US hates Joe Biden. Some Americans don't like Democrats and liberals in general, but people recognize that Biden is a decent man. Many people, including Democrats, hated Hilary Clinton. This helped Trump.
4. Evangelical Christians have already gotten what they asked for. For decades, they were a single voting bloc that opposed abortion. Now, the Roe vs. Wade was overturned and two conservatives were appointed Supreme Court justices. Many federal abortion bans and restrictions have come into effect. This is a huge victory for religious voters. Many truly religious people disliked Trump and considered him a necessary compromise. The voice of Christians is no longer a given for Trump, especially since Biden is actually a believer.
The fact that Trump is now also winning New Hampshire shows once again how firmly the party base is behind the 77-year-old.Matt Rourke/AP/dpa
5. Firearms. Contrary to what many Germans believe, ordinary Americans are not obsessed with guns and are very concerned about school shootings and violence. There is a quiet but strong movement toward gun regulation. The disappearance of the NRA (National Rifle Association in the USA) will allow for reforms in Congress. Trump is on the wrong side of this development.
6. Trump needs a high voter turnout to win like he used to. This support has long since evaporated. Moderate or independent Republican voters simply won't vote this time. Your indifference will benefit Biden.
7. Trump will spend most of his campaign complaining about his lawsuits. There will be many videos where he will say, “The elites are behind me and you are next.” Undecided voters and undecided voters won't be able to do anything with this. Trump’s only agenda is, “I’ve been wronged, so put me back in the White House.”
8. The Covid stimulus program worked. People kept their jobs and homes. Biden has been heavily criticized for inflation, but it is currently on the decline. Energy costs are manageable and the stock market is booming. Unemployment is at an all-time low. Anyone who wants a job can get it. Food and income are still high, but they are no longer high enough for Trump to justify corporate tax cuts.
9. The armchair warriors retreated. Those people who made the invasion of the Capitol possible. 1,240 people were arrested during the January 6 uprising. 378 were convicted or found guilty of their crimes. 450 of those detained were sentenced to prison terms, with some spending up to 20 years of their lives in prison. For many radicals, fantasies of subversion were like a kind of virtual game. There was a lot of talk about this on social media and in chat rooms. Now there were real-world consequences. Now the idea of a coup is no longer part of the game. Many lives and many families have been changed forever.
10. Phone polls are now only useful for headlines. They are not accurate predictors of Americans' behavior. The type of person who answers their cell phone and then does a 20 to 40 minute survey is always partisan. So: Don't trust polls that say Trump is ahead in voters' favor.
11. The death of George Floyd. This was a pivotal moment in American history. A broad swath of American society felt the need to reckon with America's racism. Trump is the literal embodiment of everything liberals are against. Progressives will try to steer Biden further to the left. There are now very active youth movements that are against everything Trump stands for.
Joshua Curry is a technology expert and artist from the San Francisco Bay Area, California, USA. He is a senior front-end developer at Berliner Verlag and exhibits as an artist in Berlin. He has won several multimedia journalism awards in the United States.
Do you have any feedback? Write to us! [email protected]