During yesterday’s preparation for the disclosure of the charges against the 45the President, I had in mind the text by colleague Joseph Facal.
Beyond the circus, the effects of rhetoric, or the obsession of the media that followed Donald Trump’s movements as we had followed those of OJ Simpson in his Ford Bronco, yesterday there was only one tension: will the indictment reading endure? a surprise for us? Something we didn’t know yet?
Between Crime and Misdemeanor
Alvin Bragg and Donald Trump made history yesterday. For one thing, we indicted a former president in a criminal proceeding. If I, like many people, believe that we are all equal before the law, I would have liked this historical story to concern a much more serious story first.
It’s still possible that Bragg has a few tricks up his sleeve, but as of this writing, if there is a trial and Donald Trump is found guilty, it will be on a misdemeanor, not a felony.
Reading the indictments (I post links here and here), I don’t see how a local prosecutor can take action against Trump for violating the federal election law.
That explains the confident reaction of the former president’s lawyers and the open disappointment of Trump’s opponents. That also explains why I mention a wet firecracker in the title.
What’s next on a legal level? Don’t expect a conclusion until after the 2024 Republican primary.
Trump will not win in 2024
In the short term, the 45th President lives up to his reputation as untouchable. Just as he hurried on his return to Mar-a-Lago, ignoring the judge’s warning to dampen his enthusiasm, Trump will continue to be able to blow his chest, lie and, above all, exploit the gullibility of supporters who pays into his coffers.
If the alleged weakness of Alvin Bragg’s file opens the door to allegations of politicization of the justice system for the moment, let’s not forget that at least three other, much more serious files represent so many swords of Damocles beyond Trump’s head.
Add to this portrait the fact that a majority of Americans are disgusted with the Trump circus and that many Republicans are in a hurry to move on. Trump can hold out for a while, but he’s already lost moderate Republicans and independents.
During the 2016 election, I was “a little embarrassed” by analyzing the polls leading up to the vote. If Hillary Clinton was the overwhelming favorite, I remember there was a 2 to 3 percent chance Trump would win if there was “a perfect storm.” I don’t see a scenario now where Trump would become the 47th President.
