Donald Trump is extending his lead over Joe Biden as the contours of next year's presidential election become clearer.
Trump could face legal jeopardy in a series of lawsuits, but he now leads Biden by four points in the latest /JL Partners poll.
The results show that the former president won over independent voters, while Biden saw his support decline within his own party and among women.
The numbers will reignite debate over whether Biden, 81, can generate enough excitement among Democrats to make good on his promise that he is the best candidate to beat Trump, 77.
That's after a separate poll showed him losing to Trump in two of the three key battleground states.
JL Partners surveyed 984 likely voters nationwide. The results show Donald Trump has a four-point lead over Joe Biden. The results have a margin of error of 3.1 points
Since the start of the year, Biden has seen his slim lead in national polls slip. Trump is also leading a number of swing states that will likely decide the outcome
To see the bigger picture nationwide, JL Partners surveyed 984 likely voters who used landline and cell phone calls, as well as text messages and smartphone apps.
When asked who they would vote for if there was an election tomorrow, 40 percent of respondents chose Trump and 36 percent chose Biden.
Independents Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornell West won 4 percent and 1 percent, respectively, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein's share was rounded down to zero.
There's still a lot of scope left. About 18 percent said they were still undecided or wanted a different candidate.
And the poll was conducted before the Colorado Supreme Court added another twist and disqualified the former president from the state's Republican primary.
Still, James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, said Trump is on the rise.
“Voters may think Trump is guilty of the accusations he has made, including a significant portion of Republicans, but his record in his first term means he still has support,” he said.
“But when you look closer, it’s clear that Trump’s lead is due more to Biden’s weakness than Trump’s strength.”
“Biden has suffered particularly among 18- to 29-year-old women and is also suffering from low black enthusiasm.” There is also a large portion of undecideds – one in 10 Biden 2020 voters – who may not like Biden, but couldn't bring themselves to vote for Trump.
“The takeaway from this must be that the race will be tighter before the election.” At the end of 2023, both candidates have everything to offer.”
Biden was ahead at the start of the year, but in next year's general election the momentum has shifted in favor of his most likely opponent
JL Partners surveyed 550 voters in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin last month. The results showed that Joe Biden is at risk of losing two states that helped him win in 2020
Trump has not yet secured the Republican nomination. That picture will become clearer in January when Republicans choose their preferred candidate in Iowa and New Hampshire.
He remains the undisputed leader for the time being.
When voters were offered a direct choice between Biden and Trump, the former president won by 46 points to 43.
However, the race is close. All results have a margin of error of 3.1 points.
But they show where the dynamics lie. Trump trailed Biden by two points in the first poll in June before gaining a point lead in September and October.
These polls show Trump moving from four points behind independents to two points ahead.
Meanwhile, Biden's overwhelming lead among young women has shrunk from 12 points to two points. And at the same time, white voters have increasingly turned to Trump.
Republican presidential candidate and former US President Donald Trump attends a campaign rally in Waterloo, Iowa
Biden is grappling with questions about his age and voters continue to say they are worried about the economy under his leadership, even though a number of key indicators are all trending in the right direction.
His overall approval rating remains well underwater.
In contrast, Trump does not appear to have suffered from indictments in four criminal cases last year.
Whether a conviction would finally remove its non-stick coating remains to be seen.
Our new poll offers further insights into the race. JL Partners also asked respondents for one word to describe each candidate's plans for a second term.
The results suggest that voters are expecting a miserable election at the ballot box next year: a candidate seeking “revenge” against a candidate who has no real plans for his second term.
Trump used rally speeches and other appearances to rail against his opponents. He even sometimes embraced the idea of being a dictator to get things done
JL Partners asked 1,000 likely voters for the one word they associate with Joe Biden's plans for a second term. The results will be sobering for the president's campaign
For Biden, they are proposing a candidate who fails to convey a clear manifesto to voters.
“Nothing” was by far the most popular word to describe what he wanted to achieve, followed by “economics” and “peace.”
The situation is completely different with Trump, who has perhaps succeeded too well in making his intentions clear.
The former president, who spends much of his time railing against opponents and critics, is associated with “revenge,” “power” and “dictatorship.”
“It pretty much sums up the essence of this campaign,” said author and conservative commentator Matt Lewis.