After starting the season at No. 4 on the AP Top 25, Kentucky didn’t earn a single vote in this week’s poll as a 3-1 start to the SEC game was followed by an embarrassing 78-52 loss in Alabama on Saturday was a 71-68 loss to South Carolina on Tuesday that gave the Wildcats a 28-game winning streak at Rupp Arena. Ranked 46th at the net with a 0-4 record in Quad 1 games, the Wildcats are a deep disappointment after returning National Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe along with other key players like Sahvir Wheeler and Jacob Toppin on the 26-8 team.
After a stunning loss to No. 15-seeded Saint Peter’s in the first round of last year’s NCAA tournament, frustration with 14th-year coach John Calipari is at an all-time high among the British fanbase. The program’s last win at The Big Dance came in 2019, and suddenly it seems like there’s no guarantee 2023 will bring one.
But there’s still two months until Selection Sunday, and Kentucky still has time to turn things around. Five-star rookies Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston have each shown encouraging flashes and should only improve as the season progresses. Sharpshooter CJ Fredrick is also expected to return at some point in the league after suffering a finger injury.
The range of results for the Wildcats remains wide, and the saga of Caliparis’ tenure reaching a critical juncture will capture the sport’s collective attention for weeks to come. For this week’s edition of the Dribble Handoff, our writers offer their predictions for the remainder of the Kentucky season.
Cats a bubble team but does big dance
- Expected conference record: 10-8
- Predicted starting value for the NCAA tournament: No. 9
Kentucky has been unassuming all season and doesn’t seem close to turning things around. The Wildcats just got blasted by 26 points in Alabama. They have won 3-3 in their last six games, still have zero Quadrant 1 wins and are down to 45th on the NET, 56th on BartTorvik.com and 62nd on KPI.
UK looks like a possible bubble team.
At this point, I’m skeptical that the Wildcats will ever live up to preseason expectations, which named them #1 on KenPom.com, top 5 basically everywhere, and SEC favorites – but I still think that They will land on the right side of the bubble and make the NCAA tournament. And then… who knows? A year ago Great Britain had a great regular season followed by a terrible NCAA tournament. This year could potentially be the opposite – a disappointing regular season followed by a nice NCAA tournament. The Wildcats still have the reigning CBS Sports National Player of the Year (Oscar Tshiebwe) and a prospective lottery winner (Cason Wallace). It’s not the most talented squad John Calipari has ever put together, but it’s still more talented than most coaches. Now it’s just a matter of figuring out a few things, doing enough to get to the field of 68, and then seeing if things can go in the right direction when this single-elimination tournament gets underway. – Gary Parish
The UK season remains bumpy but big wins are to come
- Expected conference record: 11-7
- Predicted starting value for the NCAA tournament: No. 9
Despite Britain sitting at 1-2 in the SEC – I expect it will be 2-2 after beating South Carolina at home on Tuesday night – this conference will be too difficult to reasonably expect the Wildcats to do anything bigger achieve a four-game winning streak through the postseason. There are seven road Tests plus a home game on Jan. 28 against #2 Kansas in the final edition of the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. So the losses stack up periodically. However, I expect Kentucky to find some resolve and ramp up their defense.
I expect by the second week of March it will rack up some crucial Quad 1 wins and ensure it dodges bubble talk. This will end up being like the team in 2014 that was in the 8/9 game. Because with five losses already and likely at least five more between now and selection Sunday, it’s optimistic to say Kentucky will earn a single-digit seed. I’d say it’s close thanks to a good performance in the SEC tournament. And: Kentucky will beat Kansas later this month. – Matt Norlander
Wildcats get going in February
- Expected conference record: 13-5
- Predicted starting value for the NCAA tournament: No. 6
There’s no doubt that Kentucky underperformed compared to preseason expectations and even compared to relaxed inseason expectations after troubles led to a harsh reset early on. A 10-5 start to the season in Kentucky is just too weak, even if you have serious problems. However, there are reasons for cautious optimism. This is quietly one of the best 3-point shooting teams Calipari has fielded in Britain and Oscar Tshiebwe, for all his struggles, has continued to nail the attacking target and create second-chance opportunities.
Some minor changes to player roles and an increased focus on doing what does it well – starting 3-pointers, giving Cason Wallace opportunities to set the table and putting Tshiebwe in favorable positions – might be enough to turn things around . There are still some things on the fringes that need significant improvement – this team is terrible at shooting free throws and they keep coming up against late-night hero ball on offense – but I’ve seen enough positives to believe , that it could be a No. 6 or No. 7 in the NCAA tournament and is working its way back up to a top-15 team by the end of the regular season. – Kyle Boone
UK in First Four, one of the last teams in Big Dance
- Expected conference record: 9-9
- Predicted starting value for the NCAA tournament: No. 12 (First Four)
Kentucky plays an antiquated offensive style characterized by a methodical pace and limited ground clearances. Without an elite defense that can constantly create transition opportunities, Britain bogs down in half-court sets, struggling to find a rhythm or build momentum. Schematically, Calipari just doesn’t have it in him at this point in his career to pull the strings necessary to unleash the potential of this squad.
The SEC’s bottom feeders will ensure the Wildcats have a slew of league wins. But Britain doesn’t get a regular-season rematch with No. 4 Alabama, who are keen on two games against No. 5 Tennessee and two games against No. 15 Arkansas. Outside of those contests, a single game with No. 21 Auburn and a Big 12/SEC Challenge game with No. 2 Kansas represent Kentucky’s only chance to add substance to his resume.
It’s hard to imagine the Wildcats doing better than maybe 2-4 or 3-3 against Arkansas (two games), Tennessee (two games), Auburn and Kansas. Kentucky appears destined for the NCAA tournament bubble and I will be looking to secure a spot in the First Four for the Wildcats as other Blue Bloods like Indiana, Michigan State and UCLA have done in recent years. -David Cobb