Drone attacks, sabotage and military incursions into Russian territory could herald a new phase of the war in Russia. Ukrainebetween There are several signs that Kiev’s counteroffensive has already begun.
The offensives inside Russia Conflicts are becoming more frequent, raising fears among Western allies that the Kremlin could exacerbate the conflict if the war encroaches on their borders.
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Operations on Moscow territory are nothing new in the context of the war in Ukraine. Although Kiev has not claimed responsibility for any incident, Russia has already accused Ukraine of carrying out terrorist attacks.Like the October 2022 explosion at a Moscowbuilt bridge connecting Russian territory with Crimeaoccupied by Russia since 2014, or the death of Daria Dugina, daughter of Alexander Duginone of the closest allies of the Russian President, Wladimir Putinwhose car was blown up on a road near Moscow in August 2022. However, the attacks became more frequent.
A residential building damaged by a bomb attack in Shebekino, Russia, near the Ukrainian border on June 8, 2023. Increasing Ukrainian attacks on the Russian side of the border have killed more than a dozen civilians Photo: Nanna Heitmann//NYT
According to RussianAmerican historian Leon Aron of the American Enterprise Institute, recent operations on Russian territory signal a new strategy by Ukraine’s president. Volodymir Zelenskyyto undermine Putin’s credibility and to show that the Russian people, like the Ukrainian people, are not safe.
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“Putin’s narrative is that this is a war against NATO, that Russia is surrounded by enemies, but the Russian president will always defend the people, so Zelenskyy wants to show that this is not true,” Aron assesses. “To the extent that these attacks in the border regions begin to undermine this narrative, they undermine Putin’s speech,” the expert adds.
In an article published in the New York Times last May, the President of the US, Joe Biden, specifically stated that he would never encourage Kiev to attack Russian territory. “We will not send weapons to Ukraine that reach Russia,” Biden signaled.
However, at the beginning of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which was heavily supported by NATO countries, Kiev launched an arsenal of attacks on Russian territory. with drone offensives, including attacks on the Russian capital MoscowBombings and military operations in the Belgorod region targeting Putin with the help of sabotage groups inside Russia.
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DConfidential Pentagon documents leaked but unconfirmed via the Discord app in May show that Zelenskyy has signaled the possibility of attacks on Moscow’s borders.. The Ukrainian president even suggested occupying Russian towns near the Kiev border and bombing a pipeline carrying Russian oil there Hungarythat is part of Natoand the search for longrange missiles to hit targets in Russia. The aim would be to give the Ukrainians more negotiating power in possible peace negotiations with Moscow.
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Russia’s Belgorod region, located in southwest Russia and bordering northeast Ukraine, has been hit by multiple drone strikes and military incursions in recent weeks. mainly with the help of sabotage groups operating on Russian territory.
Two Russian groups considered antiPutin, the Freedom for Russia Legion (LLR) and the Russian Volunteer Corps, claim involvement in these attacks. These voluntary groups have joined the armed struggle and are working with Kiev to undermine Vladimir Putin’s government. They even advanced in offensives against Russian cities earlier this month, but were repulsed by Russian forces, according to a statement by the Defense Ministry in Moscow..
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These groups also operate in areas of Ukrainian territory and receive weapons. Despite US resistance to this type of attack, little was done in Washington to repel the offensives.
“These dissidents appear to be using Westernsupplied Ukrainian equipment. Ukraine denies involvement in these Russian actions against Putin, but it is clear that equipment exists and it is clear that these dissident forces are coordinating with Ukraine’s armed forces. So it’s a calculated risk on the part of Kiev, because Ukraine has promised the West not to do it international relations at the Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF) and researcher at Harvard University.
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According to Aron, new offensives on Russian territory could raise doubts about Putin, who has to defend the occupied territories in Ukraine and may not have such a large contingent to defend the borders. “Ukraine and Russia have a long border, and if attacks in the Belgorod region become more frequent, Putin will have to send more troops to defend the border,” the historian said.
According to an article in the New York Times, Ukrainian bombings in Zhebekino, a Russian town on the border with Ukraine in the Belgorod region, killed at least a dozen people. Thousands of residents left the city of 39,000.
Members of the Freedom for Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps speak to reporters during an event on the territory of Ukraine. Photo: Finbarr O’Reilly/NYT
According to Russian media, there have been more than 60 suspected drone strikes in Russia and Moscowheld areas of Ukraine this year. There are suspicions that behind the attacks were sabotage groups using drones made by Ukraine rather than NATO members.
“Most likely, the drone strikes will be carried out by groups inside Russia. In a straight line, the shortest route from the Ukrainian border to Moscow is 560 km, which is very difficult, since Kiev is coordinating these attacks from its territory,” emphasizes Brustolin.
Drone offensives target oil facilities, airfields and civilian infrastructure. In May, two oil refineries burned down in Krasnodar in southern Russia, about 200 km from the border with Crimea. Moscow has also reported drone strikes on military installations.
The attacks reached the Russian capital Moscow in May and hit several residential buildings. The Russian government even accused Ukraine of trying to kill Putin, claiming that it shot down two drones aimed at the Kremlin, which Zelenskyy denied.
Learn more about the war in Ukraine
According to experts and videos recorded by the drones on Russian territory, the Ukrainians mainly used the UJ22 drone made by the Ukrainian company Ukrjet and the R18, a drone made by the Ukrainian company Aerorozvidka.
Putin admits lack of preparation
Putin acknowledged Russian strategic mistakes this Tuesday the 13th invasion of Ukraine and defending its territory.
The Russian leader stated that Russia should have strengthened internal security to prevent such attacks from the beginning, but did not do so. “We could have thought at first that the enemy would behave like this, and certainly we prepared better,” he said at a meeting with military bloggers and war correspondents.
The Russian President also noted that if the border attacks continue, Russia will be forced to set up a restricted zone in the neighboring territory, which will make it difficult for Ukrainians to act. As for drone strikes, the Russian admitted that the country’s air defense was not prepared.
According to him, the Russian air defense systems are designed against fighter jets and missiles and struggle against drones, which are made of lighter materials, making detection difficult. “Of course it would have been better if it had been done on time and correctly,” he said. Still, the Russian president stressed that he was making adjustments in this area and said he had confidence in the defense of Moscow and other key Russian cities.
So far, NATO allies have not changed their stance on the alliance with Ukraine, but the relationship may change if Kiev continues its offensives on Ukrainian territory.
“If the attacks continue, there is a risk that it will become very damaging to Ukraine because it gives Putin the argument that he is fighting a country that is also invading his territory,” says Brustolin.
Western leaders meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during the G7 summit held in Hiroshima, Japan in May.
The Harvard University researcher points out that Kyiv cannot publicly admit that it is attacking targets inside Russia because it is held in high esteem by the West, which has always made it clear that it is opposed to attacks inside Russia. “Ukraine has a moral with the West, an agreement that it would only use arms to defend its territory and its people. If it starts attacking civilian areas in Russia, Kiev will lose that morale and violate international conventions,” he adds.
For RussianAmerican historian Leon Aron, Ukraine was careful not to use NATO weapons for offensives inside Russia. primarily because of NATO’s reluctance to provide Kiev with stateoftheart equipment. “No NATO equipment is used, only Ukrainian ones. If Zelenskyy starts using NATO weapons for incursions into Russia, he will have a problem. But I don’t think Kiev will do that.”