In France and Spain prices are regaining strength, while in Italy there is greater stability. Stop corn prices
Soft wheat, spread increasing depending on quality
Italy
The commercial scenario has become quite consolidated in its directions, which maintain the trend towards a possible increase in the spread between strong and “mixed” grains, with classes 4 and 5 maintaining the price difference with bread grains. In Milan, an upward adjustment for the first item with the remainder unchanged; on Bologna everything is unchanged for a “Bologna 14 protein type”, stable at 325 €/t arrival. The “superior” products (Class 2) with a discount of 48-50 €/t and “mixed” bread baking products (Class 3) with 240-250 €/t; Points 4 and 5 each at entry 225 and 210 €/t, EU and abroad unchanged.
Europe
Grain from the Black Sea competes with European origin, which limits exports both within the EU and abroad. There is a sense of tension in the markets due to low local demand, existing coverage until the end of 2023 and requests from ports only for additional volumes. Not much to keep prices at last week’s levels, given a euro/dollar exchange rate that is shattering forecasts for a resumption of trade with the southern Mediterranean. On the Paris Euronext, the December position is slipping towards €234/t (minus €5/t), with the “bread” yield Fob Rouen at €233/t (minus €7/t).
World
The new estimates released by the USDA suggest that the increase in American inventories is a direct result of Russia’s relentless price competition and strong crop prospects in Ukraine, which are contributing to high near-term supply demand. Recent purchase auctions show strong competition between Russia and Eastern Europe (with Romania exporting some of the Ukrainian wheat it receives). In the medium term, the positive development of winter sowing in the USA, which is already 40% complete, and the problem-free completion of the North American spring season are important. Argentina for $303/t, Australian Soft White for $295/t, DNS for $311/t, Russian milling for $235/t.
Durum wheat, many unknowns on the horizon
Italy
The price balance seems to be holding, even if there are still many contradictory uncertainties linked to the quality of the Italian countries of origin, the arrivals from foreign countries of origin (Black Sea) and the prospects beyond December, also linked to the stability of the local Consumption and exports are related. The exchange is conditioned by medium to low quality and the tendency to improve (where possible and permitted) the national batches with what arrives at the ports. The landings continue at high speed, which is currently leading to a calming of the roads; The “Fino” type costs around €395-400/t and arrives at the mill. Merchant ships receive a discount of €40-100/t in the central north and €10-50/t in the south.
Europe
In the French and Spanish markets there was a tentative sign of price recovery following the return of demand from the mills, which, albeit limited, has restored sentiment in a market that, on the other hand, has a low supply of local products. Competition from the Turkish substitute is currently blocking all estimated sales of French products to Italy and Spain; Hope for new auctions from North Africa, with Tunisia coming back onto the market. The “fine variety” of French origin brings in a FOB Mediterranean quota of around €395-400/t.
World
With the harvest in Canada now complete, we are now waiting for qualitative feedback on production for 2023, which would be confirmed at just over 4.2 million/t. On the US front there is confirmation of the completion of threshing operations with a harvest of around 1.6 million/t with an average quality of 1 HAD. Turkey’s commercial exploitation, which will export around 1.5 million/t, is justified by a harvest of around 4 million/t, adding up to unspecified (but significant) ex-Black Sea volumes. The hard “any origin” is delivered to the Mediterranean The port is valued at $425/t, with Canadian always having a markup of $50-60/t.
Corn, fears of livestock pandemics slow trade
Italy
National, EU and foreign supply remains plentiful and demand uncertain, due to factors that, in addition to the economic crisis, now bring the risk of livestock pandemics, with a tendency to reduce the number of animals. The compensatory impact on prices is obvious as they do not differ from the previous week. Milan and Bologna remain unchanged, with “trait” maize arriving at €222-224/t and generic at €218-220/t; EU and abroad at values between 230-240 €/t depending on the specification.
Europe
Week of price cuts in Community markets, with a simultaneous decline in “premiums” towards ports and signs of a decline in domestic demand. The reasons lie in the development of the markets, affected by (record?) yields/ha in France and the poor competitiveness in the last buying auctions, where South American and Polish maize (but of Ukrainian origin) predominated in the auctions. . On Paris Euronext, the November position on the Paris market is worth 205 €/t (-5 €/t), in March it was at 212 €/t and the “spot” made the port of Bordeaux at 207 €/t ( -7 €). /t).
World
Prices on foreign futures exchanges recovered by 2%, although, according to the new estimates, there were occasional moments of volatility. USDA data showing a decline in American stocks amid expected recovery in global trade and the impending return of purchases by China. Rapid progress in sowing in Brazil (first harvest) and Argentina, but the dry climate remains unknown. From the Black Sea, the alternative sea channel to the “corridor” is strengthened and Kiev’s exports return to supply China at the same level of $185/t FOB Black Sea. FOB prices: the USA at $231/t, the Ukrainian NQ, Argentine at $246/t, Brazilian at $225/t.
Domestic soybeans open at €405/t while foreign soybeans continue to lose ground
Italy
Feed grain: Confirmation of prices and (calm) trading trends with the general feeling that, barring any unexpected news, the sector is finding its electoral equilibrium. Sorghum brings 2-3 €/t and is worth 202-203 €/t, barley remains at 210-215 €/t and the specific tender base consolidates at 210-225 €/t. Oilseeds: National soy will open in Milan at €405/t arrival and in Bologna at €405/t departure, values will be reviewed in the coming weeks. Foreign origin, based on characteristics, gives a yield of €10-15/quote at €420-475/t; Sunflowers on Ager-Bologna quota unchanged at 370 €/t arrival.
Europe
Feed grain: a week in which there is less pressure on barley, which is also losing ground due to the decline in exports and discrete demand from feed factories; Common wheat shows similar performance to barley due to sufficient industry coverage until December 2023 and buyer reluctance in China. Oilseeds: The scenario for rapeseed, which has been consolidated since last week, is depressing and, despite the recently slightly lower harvest estimates, is affected by the simultaneous fall in prices for soy and palm trees. Euronext November position rapeseed collapses to 425 €/t (minus 25), FOB Rouen at 450 €/t; The “oleic acid” sunflower brought S. Nazaire a price of €415/t (+€10/t) due to doubts about Ukrainian production.
World
feed grains: For barley, the confirmation of large production in Russia is news that would weigh on a market already burdened by the introduction of Canadian production. In grains, news of new embarkations of “Handysize” vessels from Ukrainian POC ports complements the large Russian supply and further calms global markets. Barley FOB Black Sea at $178/t, Australian at $257/t; SRW FOB Gulf wheat at $246/t and Ukrainian NQ. Oilseeds: Soybeans lost 2% and fell to their lowest level in 10 months due to the USDA’s upward revision of American stocks, in line with estimates of lower soybean meal use. The return of Chinese demand and dry conditions during planting in Brazil and Argentina were supportive but not dominant. Canadian canola falls another 1% while awaiting final data for the 2023 crop. Fob prices: US soy at $499/t, Brazilian at $484/t and Argentina at $512; FOB Canadian rapeseed at $560/t.