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THE HAGUE – Dutch voters may be on the verge of electing someone very different from outgoing veteran Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
A former refugee, Dilan Yeşilgöz, who succeeded Rutte as leader of the VVD party, is now leading the polls ahead of Wednesday’s vote and could become the first female prime minister in Dutch history.
The competition is on a knife’s edge, with three parties vying for the most seats, but their nearest rival, Pieter Omtzigt, has signaled he may not want the top job for himself.
This makes it all the more likely that Yeşilgöz, the country’s justice minister, will become prime minister at the head of the next government.
Read more: How to watch the Dutch elections like a pro – POLITICO
A self-confessed workaholic, Yeşilgöz is media-savvy and doesn’t talk much about being a woman in politics. She is always in a good mood and full of energy in public, despite the “tough” demands that she believes her current job entails. Her liberal-conservative People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy is now tied for first place in the POLITICO poll with 18 points after replacing Rutte as leader.
Her platform was a promise to take action against migration, an issue that has long plagued Dutch politics.
But Yeşilgöz told POLITICO that it was her own background as a refugee that shaped her perspective on migration.
“There is an influx of too many people, not only asylum seekers but also migrant workers and international students, which means we are unable to help real refugees,” Yeşilgöz said. She cited problems in the system as obstacles, including inadequate reception facilities for asylum seekers and a lack of housing.
But Yeşilgöz still has a mountain ahead of him to be successful in the election.
If the VVD wins, that would be extraordinary. There are hardly any examples of government parties remaining the largest even when there is a change in leadership.
But the latest POLITICO poll shows that the VVD is neck and neck with centrist outsider Omtzigt’s new party, New Social Contract. Frans Timmermans’ green-left alliance also has a chance of winning at 15 percent.
SURVEY ON THE NATIONAL PARLIAMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS
For more polling data from across Europe, see POLITICO Poll of Polls.
As justice minister in the current interim government, she is described as a tough negotiator and strong communicator who only does three things outside of work: sleep, exercise and eat healthy.
But while Rutte has always been very reserved about his personal life, Yeşilgöz has been much more open, speaking openly about her marriage, her struggles with an immune disorder and her hesitation about having children.
Also unlike Rutte, who has often been seen cycling to appointments, Yeşilgöz is driven everywhere and has to be heavily protected by a personal security detail due to her position as justice minister. “It’s a big part of my life and it’s very hard. But I choose to keep going and not give up because I won’t be intimidated,” she said.
The increasingly violent and crude nature of public discourse in the Netherlands is a growing problem in Dutch politics. Outgoing Finance Minister Sigrid Kaag had previously announced that she would leave politics out of concern for her safety.
Fair and strict
Brussels is also watching the upcoming election closely. Under Rutte’s leadership, the Netherlands has positioned itself as a reliable and dominant partner in the EU. But officials in embassies and institutions in Brussels are now wondering whether the next government will maintain such a positive role after the November 22 vote.
It is a clear “yes” from Yeşilgöz if she becomes prime minister. “As a small country, we can play a big role. That’s what we’ve always done, and it’s incredibly important that we continue to do that,” she said.
Strict and fair dealings are the main pillars of their approach towards the EU, said Yeşilgöz. This also includes not tinkering with the criteria for when new countries want to become EU members – a debate that is already intensifying given Ukraine’s application to join the 27-country bloc.
A man gets on a tram next to a People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) election campaign poster with a picture of party leader Dilan Yeşilgöz | Carl Court/Getty Images
The Dutch have traditionally been the pioneers in EU fiscal policy, criticizing high spending and calling for debt reduction. But more recently the Dutch government has embraced flexibility within reason.
“I’m just very strict and I don’t look at the context at all, I exaggerate a little bit, that won’t be our line,” Yeşilgöz said. “But being very flexible and actually making things less clear and more complex is not our line either. Europe must be a stable cooperation and clear financial agreements are very important for this.”
Post Rutte
Although the VVD is leading in the polls, the race is far from decided.
Yeşilgöz’s biggest challenge in the election campaign was convincing voters that she wants renewal, even though her party has been in power for more than a decade.
A lot has gone well in the last thirteen years, she said, pointing out that the Netherlands had weathered the economic crisis and the coronavirus pandemic relatively safely.
“At the same time, when you zoom in and see that a lot of people with normal jobs and incomes are laying awake at night because of their bills… so I can’t say things are going well for everyone,” she said.
“In addition, there have been some blind spots in recent years,” she said. These included the poor handling of claims related to earthquake damage in Groningen and a fiasco over childcare benefits in which thousands of people, often dual nationals, were wrongly labeled as fraudsters. “It is obvious that we have learned from this and must prevent new blind spots from emerging.”
And what about their former leader Rutte? Earlier this month he was spotted in Brussels visiting NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg after hinting that he would like to take over the position at the top of the military alliance himself.
Asked whether Rutte was eager to take over the leadership of NATO, Yeşilgöz laughed. “Wherever he ends up, this organization is very lucky to have him,” she said.