Chinese President Xi Jinping holds talks with his Filipino counterpart Rodrigo Duterte November 20, 2018 in Manila, Philippines.
Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images
Since the election of President Rodrigo Duterte in 2016, the Philippines has warmed to China.
As Filipinos head to the polls on May 9 to elect a new leader, observers will be watching closely what the new leadership could mean for the Philippines’ growing ties with Beijing.
Foreign policy isn’t usually a hot topic in Philippines elections, but there’s good reason why it should be this time, said Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby, associate professor of international studies at De La Salle University in the Philippine capital, Manila.
“There are compelling reasons why the 2022 candidates should articulate a China policy, not the least of which is that a president’s preference for a particular country has ramifications that go beyond one government at the expense of other partners,” she said in a report, published in Singapore by Think Tank, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
Duterte’s presidency marked a dramatic shift in the Philippines’ foreign policy when he declared his country’s “separation” from the US — a military ally — in 2016. Instead, he sought closer ties with China.
But it has little to show for its pivot in China, as many of the infrastructure investments promised by Beijing have not materialised.
Meanwhile, tensions persist in the South China Sea – where the two countries have overlapping territorial claims – as China continues to invade parts of the sea internationally recognized as belonging to the Philippines.
Anti-China rhetoric within Durterte’s own government has grown louder, while opinion polls showed the Filipino public remains skeptical of Beijing. Analysts said such sentiment could cause the next president to back away from Duterte’s China pivot.
Based on their campaign commentary, CNBC examined where the leading Philippine presidential candidates rank on the China issue.
The top contenders currently include: Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. – the son and namesake of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos – and Leni Robredo, the acting vice president and de facto leader of the opposition. The current mayor of Manila, Francisco Domagoso, is also among the leading contenders.
Marcos: China-friendly candidate
Among the best Philippine presidential candidates, Marcos is considered the most pro-China candidate. Opinion polls currently place him as the front runner in the race for the presidency: the latest poll by independent pollster Pulse Asia found that 60% of respondents prefer Marcos.
One bone of contention in China-Philippines relations is the 2016 ruling on their South China Sea dispute. The international tribunal in The Hague rejected China’s claims in the sea, ruling that certain parts claimed by both countries belonged solely to the Philippines.
China rejected this verdict. Duterte, who was seeking closer ties with Beijing, was criticized for not doing more to urge Beijing to comply with the arbitration result.
In a series of media interviews in January, Marcos reportedly hinted that he was willing to overturn the 2016 verdict in order to engage with China.
But the former senator and congressman appeared to have softened his stance in a televised debate last month. He said he wanted the Philippines to have a military presence in the South China Sea “to show China that we are defending what we consider our territorial waters,” Reuters reported.
Still, Marcos said he would not prioritize a military solution to his country’s dispute with China and plans to continue the “right approach” of pursuing engagement with China while walking “a very, very fine line” between China and the US have to go to the USA. reported Reuters.
Robredo: departure from Duterte’s policy
Opposition leader Leni Robredo, who is also Vice President, has advocated a tougher stance on China.
The President and Vice President are elected separately in the Philippines. Robredo, an outspoken critic of Duterte’s deadly drug war, resigned from the Duterte cabinet in 2016.
Considered an anti-Duterte candidate, she was ranked second behind Marcos in the Pulse Asia poll, with 15% of respondents selecting her as their preferred presidential candidate.
Robredo reportedly said she will pursue an “inclusive and independent” foreign policy that does not favor any country.
Referring to the South China Sea dispute, she stressed the need to recognize the 2016 arbitration ruling before the Philippines and China can proceed with joint oil and gas exploration projects in the resource-rich sea.
The vice president also reportedly said she favors stronger ties with the US and other countries, such as the Philippines’ Southeast Asian neighbors, the European Union and Australia.
Domagoso: candidate of the center
Currently third in Pulse Asia’s poll is Francisco Domagoso, a former actor and current mayor of the Philippine capital, Manila.
Domagoso, better known by his nickname Isko Moreno, is seen by political analysts as a centrist candidate who has sought a middle ground on issues like foreign policy.
The Mayor of Manila reportedly shares Robredo’s view on the need to enforce the 2016 arbitration award.
However, local media have also reported that Domagoso said China is not an “enemy” and that he would support joint oil and gas exploration deals with China in the South China Sea if contracts were awarded by the Philippine government.