Earnings Playbook The investing game plan as retail giants Walmart

Earnings Playbook: The investing game plan as retail giants Walmart and Target wrap up the season

Earnings season is coming to an end, but there are still some big names to report. More than 90% of S&P 500 companies have already reported earnings, with 78% of those names reporting earnings that beat expectations, according to Refinitiv. Those results have caused overall S&P 500 earnings to rise 9.7% compared to the same period last year. In other words, it’s been a solid season. However, major consumer names like Walmart and Target are still on deck, and they will give investors another indication of how well Main Street is coping with higher prices. Take a look at CNBC Pro’s breakdown of what’s expected of this week’s biggest reports. On Tuesday, Walmart will report earnings before the bell, followed by a conference call at 8 a.m. ET. Most recent quarter: WMT said higher costs, supply chain issues and high inventories are hurting profits. This quarter: Analysts polled by Refinitiv expect annual revenue to rise slightly and earnings per share to decline single-digit. What CNBC retail reporter Melissa Repko observes: “Walmart has already sent a clear signal that customers are feeling inflation. Last month, the company lowered its earnings outlook for the second quarter and full year, saying it was having a harder time selling high-margin consumer staples items like apparel. Investors will listen to the retailer’s plan to increase profits in a more difficult environment, such as For example, using private label to attract more cash shares from price-conscious shoppers, or finding new revenue streams like the ad business.” What history shows: Walmart’s earnings days have been tough for investors lately, as the stock has fallen, according to Bespoke data after 7 of the last 9 reports fell Home Depot to report earnings before the opening bell, with management scheduled to hold a conference call at 9 a.m. ET Last Quarter: HD raised its full-year outlook after posting record first-quarter sales This quarter: The home improvement retailer is expected to post high single-digit earnings growth, data from Refinitiv shows What CNBC reporter Jack Stebbins observes: “As the go-to place for builders, electricians and other professionals, Home Depot is better insulated from changes in consumer spending Additionally, these professionals had a backlog of orders after the pandemic stood . The momentum also puts the company in a better position than other retailers when it comes to inflation. Still, investors will be looking for clues as to how Home Depot is navigating this difficult environment, especially as inflationary pressures remain near 40-year highs.” As history shows, Home Depot is beating earnings expectations in 85% of the world, according to Bespoke cases On earnings days, however, the stock averages only a 0.32% gain Target is scheduled to announce results in the premarket on Wednesday, with a conference call scheduled for 8:00 a.m. ET Last Quarter: TGT said that high Costs and inventory issues hurt earnings. The stock fell 25% on the day. This Quarter: According to Refinitiv, target earnings are likely to have fallen sharply from the year-ago period, while revenue is expected to be roughly flat. What CNBC retail reporter Melissa Repko observes: “Target has taken a sharp turn from red-hot consumer demand to a flood of unwanted La ger stocks is pivoted. The discounter said earlier this summer that it was taking a slump in profits in the second quarter, allowing it to clear shelves ahead of the all-important back-to-school and holiday season. Its executives are expected to provide a progress update and shed some light on the effort how sales are holding up as many customers spend more on services like travel and eating out, along with feeling inflationary pressures.” What history shows: Buckle up for these results. After the last three reports are Target stocks down 25%, up 9% and down 5%, respectively, according to Bespoke Lowe’s to announce earnings before the bell Management expected to hold conference call at 9:00 a.m. ET Last quarter: LOW reported a decline in sales, as cool spring temperatures impacted demand for outdoor products This Quarter: According to Refinitiv, Lowe’s earnings are expected to decline versus the increased slightly in the previous year. What CNBC reporter Jack Stebbins observes: “With about 75% of its sales coming from DIY customers, Lowe’s risks feeling trapped by falling consumer confidence. The hardware store is past spring, the high season for projects. However, the background has become more difficult as people juggle busier schedules and tighter budgets and see signs that the housing market may be cooling. As history shows, Lowe’s has beaten expectations for the past six quarters, FactSet data shows. Cisco Systems is expected to report earnings after the bell. Management is expected to host a conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET. Most recent quarter: CSCO forecasts a drop in sales, putting pressure on the stock. This quarter: Analysts polled by Refinitiv expect slight year-over-year declines in Cisco’s earnings per share and revenue. What CNBC Tech reporter Jordan Novet observes: “Analysts aren’t particularly excited about Cisco right now, with more than half of the 29 analysts polled by FactSet remaining holding the data center networking hardware maker’s stock. “We don’t think a premium rating is warranted now because, despite the company’s stated goal of growing software and recurring revenue, Cisco has not been very successful in meeting its business transformation goals,” Rosenblatt Securities analyst Mike Genovese wrote when he coverage with a hold rating initiated in mid-July. Management warned of a drop in sales for the July quarter. Since then, one of Cisco’s top executives, Todd Nightingale, responsible for enterprise networks and cloud, has agreed to become CEO of content distribution network operator Fastly. Another executive vice president, Jonathan Davidson, has agreed to take on additional responsibilities to lead that unit, a spokesman said. As history shows, Cisco shares have posted an average loss of 0.4% on gain days, but the company beat earnings expectations 94% of the time, tailored data shows. Kohl’s will announce the results before the bell on Thursday, with a call scheduled for 9 a.m. ET. Most Recent Quarter: KSS lowered its full-year outlook after an earnings decline. This quarter: According to Refinitiv, Kohl’s earnings are likely to have fallen more than 50% from the year-ago period. What CNBC retail reporter Lauren Thomas observes: “Kohl’s in June lowered its outlook for the second fiscal quarter, which the retailer is about to report, citing weaker consumer spending. Industry watchers await upcoming updates to its full-year outlook Many retailers, including Walmart and Warby Parker, have kept their forecasts on the heels in recent days due to inflationary pressures and ongoing supply chain headwinds. Kohl’s also ended deal talks with the Franchise Group, owner of The Vitamin Shoppe. It has come under heavy pressure from activists to sell the business and may offer updates this week.” As history shows, Kohl’s has been a surprise winner lately and, according to Bespoke data, is down up in each of its last four reports, but that wasn’t the long-term trend Typically, stocks fall on average on earnings days, according to Bespoke.