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Early analysis shows that global warming rose far above previous records in September – even higher than what scientists say were staggering increases in July and August.
The planet’s average temperature exceeded the previous September record by more than half a degree Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit), marking the largest monthly deviation ever observed.
Global temperatures last month were at levels closer to normal for July, according to separate data analyzes by European and Japanese climate researchers.
The average temperature in September was about 0.88 degrees Celsius (1.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above 1991-2020 levels — or about 1.7 degrees Celsius (3.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal before industrialization and widespread Use of fossil fuels.
The September data shows an acceleration of the warming trend that rang alarm bells this summer as the planet’s temperature reached its warmest levels in modern records and likely in thousands of years.
Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather This is called September warming “Absolutely stunning bananas.”
“We have never seen a record even remotely beaten by this much,” Hausfather, head of climate at payments company Stripe, said in an email.
The monthly ERA5 data for September 2023 has been published.
I still find it difficult to understand how a single year can make such a big leap compared to previous years.
Just by adding the most recent data points, the linear warming trend increased by 10% since 1979. pic.twitter.com/AnNAbyUQwY
— Mika Rantanen (@mikarantane) October 3, 2023
The estimates come from climate models in which scientists use data on temperatures around the world to extrapolate average global heat. Such analyzes have become a reliable complement to the assessments that NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration conduct each month, although with a longer delay in data review and processing.
Temperature data from weather satellites also showed that it was by far the warmest September on record.
Scientists say the extreme heat is the latest sign of both human-caused climate change and the El Niño climate pattern that occurred in June and is nearing its expected peak this winter. Climate forecasts suggest it will be a “strong” El Niño, perhaps one of the strongest ever observed.
In addition to global warming due to the greenhouse effect and the burning of fossil fuels, El Niño is known to increase global temperatures by tens of degrees Celsius. Warmer-than-average waters in the Pacific Ocean indicate the presence of El Niño, as wind patterns over the tropics cause heat stored in deeper ocean levels to rise to the surface and be released into the atmosphere.
The planet is significantly hotter this year than during the last major El Niño event in 2015 and 2016. It’s not just the Pacific that is unusually warm – this summer there have been ocean heatwaves all over the world. And global air temperatures hit records for the past two months in a row.
Scientists say the unprecedented rise in global temperatures has increased the likelihood of brutal heat waves and deadly floods that have hit the planet in recent weeks and months.