MOMBASA, Kenya (AP) – Farmers in the east and Horn of Africa are preparing for the worst drought in 40 years as authorities warn weather officials who reported higher temperatures and less rain than normal in March and April.
The intergovernmental agency for development said rainfall is likely to fall for the fourth straight year, raising fears of rising malnutrition, threats to livelihoods and serious risks for the region’s 29 million people. Meteorologists are linking the current drought to human-caused climate change, which is increasing the temperature in the Indian Ocean, which in turn is increasing the frequency of cyclones.
As in much of the continent, agriculture is the mainstay of the economy in the east and Horn, and depends on rainfall, making it more vulnerable to extreme weather events. Mama Charity Kimaru, who does mixed farming, raising cattle and growing crops and vegetables on her 12-acre farm in Nyandarua, about 126 km north of Nairobi, is one of those preparing for the worst. Kimaru says soaring temperatures in recent months have deprived her livestock of pasture and caused crops she had planted in anticipation of the long rainy season to fail.
The weather agency said in February that the region should prepare for an “above average” long rainy season, which normally lasts from March to May, but revised its forecast this week.
“The rains in March, April and May are crucial for the region and unfortunately we are facing not three but possibly four consecutive failed rainy seasons,” said Workneh Gebeyehu, executive secretary of the intergovernmental agency. “This, together with other stressors such as conflicts in our region and in Europe, the impact of COVID-19 and macroeconomic challenges, has resulted in high levels of food insecurity throughout the Great Horn of Africa area.”
Lower average precipitation in 2022 could prolong already very dry conditions not seen at this level since 1981. Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, which will be hit hard by reduced rainfall, are already experiencing severe famine.
The lack of rainfall during last year’s short rainy season and the current long-season drought have caused crop failures and livestock deaths, pushed up food prices and fueled intercommunal conflicts over scarce grazing land and declining water resources.
“Whenever we have violent cyclones in the southwestern Indian Ocean, we prepare for a long dry season in the eastern and Horn regions,” said Evans Mukolwe, former chief science officer at the United Nations. “That’s because cyclones absorb much of the moisture, depriving the region of much-needed rainfall. That has been the pattern for decades.”
Aid organizations are already concerned about how the effects of climate change will affect the region in the coming decades.
“This is not the first drought in the Horn and it likely won’t be the last,” said Sean Granville-Ross, regional director for Africa at the humanitarian aid organization Mercy Corps. “As the climate emergency worsens, droughts will become more frequent and severe. People affected by climate change cannot wait for one crisis to end to prepare for the next.”
“The international response must prioritize immediate needs while allocating additional resources to smart long-term interventions that make a long-term difference and help communities become more drought-resilient,” he added.
The UN agency warned last week that the current drought “could become one of the worst climate-related emergencies in recent history in the Horn of Africa,” noting the $1.5 billion needed would be about 5.5 percent millions to help region.
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