Eastern Conference contenders can easily be described as: staggering, charging, holding, and lurking.
Miami, Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Boston have all held those titles on points this season, which is why they’re so tightly packed they can smell each other’s mouthwash with 15 days before the end of the regular season.
Half a game separates the four teams and Celtic’s big man Robert Williams III’s recent knee injury changes the conversation even more as their climb hits a speed bump.
It’s still the stronger conference, although Phoenix is running from everyone and hiding, with so many teams capable of making a trip to June or being sent home before the calendar switches to May.
The mere presence of the Brooklyn Nets and their voiceless point guard being released from his self-made dungeon changes things for everyone, whether they publicly admit it or not. Assuming Kevin Durant is healthy and Kyrie Irving is available, the nets are considered dangerous – but flawed.
Flawed, as in the Nets, who are 9-13 when he plays and their defensive issues have yet to be resolved. The play-in makes it difficult to predict where the Nets might end up in the playoffs, so they can’t exactly be avoided by the teams at the top.
Brooklyn Nets guard Kyrie Irving is now available full-time and is hustling some Eastern Conference rivals in a tightly packed race, but the Nets still have many question marks on their way to the play-in tournament. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)
And there are no easy matchups, so getting away from one means getting into another tough race with only marginally better odds.
That goes for the main contenders, who managed to win all 50 games and stared at a rejuvenated and somewhat unknown Nets team in the first round. There have been close races and years where it’s not uncommon to have multiple 50-win teams.
No disrespect, but it makes a difference when a full-fledged Giannis Antetokounmpo is confirmed as champion and lurks again, in addition to Joel Embiid playing at a similarly high level alongside the aforementioned Durant.
And while the Celtics have viewed Jayson Tatum as their MVP of late, it’s hard to put him in the class of these three supernovas. However, the numbers say we should pay more attention to him and his team.
The story goes on
According to basketball-reference.com, Tatum leads the league in defensive win percentages. It’s not the most accurate indicator of value at this end, but it can’t be dismissed. Even though he’s a product of a tightly wound entity that doesn’t concede anything at that end, Tatum doesn’t break the chain.
For context, the three-man squad of Tatum, Williams and Jaylen Brown outsells opponents by almost 20 points per 100 possessions. That puts the Suns’ best unit, Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder (+11.4 points per 100 possessions), and Milwaukee’s trio of Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Bobby Portis (+13.5 points per 100 possessions). The shade. With Williams injured, there is more emphasis on a soon-to-be 36-year-old Al Horford to anchor the defensive line, which has been a big key to the Celtics losing four games in the past two months.
Tatum has 32.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 4.7 assists since the All-Star break and boosted those numbers in March with 33.7 points on 54/46/91 splits. The Celtics’ overall team defense gives them a slight edge over the rest, especially considering the Bucks don’t feel they need home field advantage to get through the East when it counts and they have the sweat right , to be all champions must dethrone.
Notwithstanding the recent 25-point smack by a Memphis squad without Ja Morant, the Bucks are 10-3 for the past month and the return of Brook Lopez may start a process of stabilization.
They’ve been mixing and matching lineups all season and maybe playing a little possum as Middleton and Jrue Holiday have a longer year than the others. Their defense is the biggest concern as they are fourth in offensive rating and are a top five team from 3 point range. When it feels like they’ve been sleepwalking through the season, champions traditionally go through periods of boredom.
And unlike the 76ers, they have now earned the trust. Like their trading partners in Brooklyn, the 76’s are trying to put this together on the fly while managing Embiid’s health.
The general belief was that James Harden pursued it in his last days in Brooklyn, and there is certainly evidence to support that claim. But his production hasn’t increased since arriving in Philadelphia, he was only turning 41% and relied far too heavily on getting to the line to put some mascara on his numbers – which may not be reliable when the playoffs come .
Embiid doesn’t play heavy minutes, but he made more than the best of them. However, his 3-point shooting and playmaking have taken a leap since Harden’s arrival — which is to be expected given how much of the offense Harden likes to command.
Brooklyn’s Kyrie Irving drives to the basket against the Miami Heat on March 26, 2022 in Miami. (Eric Espada/Getty Images)
Miami was the East’s most consistent team late, struggling with injuries and a lack of continuity until now. On paper, it seemed like a rough, tough, defensive band of bandits would go on the run to end the season.
It was the opposite, and while the verbal altercation between Jimmy Butler, Erik Spoelstra, and Udonis Haslem can be dismissed as “hot culture” or can rightly be dismissed as more normal than other franchises, that doesn’t mean they don’t cause problems have solve.
Who plays the ball late? Butler has always been a safe bet because he’s a good decision maker who doesn’t turn the ball over. But when defense falls off because he’s only shooting 20% of three this season (on fewer than two attempts), the offense gets even more sticky.
Giving up 38, 37, and 33 points in the fourth quarter in losses to Philadelphia, New York, and Golden State doesn’t suggest offense as much, though Miami still has the most consistent defense of the candidates all season.
Fixing late-game offense will help in the playoffs, but fixing defense deficiencies can help in the last two weeks of the season.
Within a game, a quarter, you can see why each team is frighteningly good and why you’re scared of them at the same time.
Last but not least, the NBA has what it wants—competitive play that lasts until the last day of the regular season, and the only guarantee is that it will be compelling.