LATIN AMERICA ECONOMY
Santiago de Chile, 27 April (EFE).- The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) this Wednesday lowered its growth forecasts for 2022 in the region to 1.8% from the 2.1% estimated in January due to the impact the war in Ukraine.
“The economies of Latin America and the Caribbean face a complex situation in 2022 due to the war between Russia and Ukraine,” the Santiago de Chile-based UN agency said in a statement.
According to ECLAC, Panama (6.3%), the Dominican Republic (5.3%), Venezuela (5%), Colombia (4.8%), Guatemala (4.2%), Honduras ( 4, 1%), Uruguay (3.9%), Costa Rica (3.7%) and Bolivia (3.5%).
In the middle of the table are Cuba (3.4%), El Salvador (3%), Argentina (3%), Ecuador (2.7%), Peru (2.5%), Nicaragua (2.5%) ), Mexico (1.7%) and Chile (1.5%), while the countries with the lowest growth will be Paraguay (0.7%), Haiti (0.6%) and Brazil (0.4%). .
For the Caribbean, ECLAC estimates expansions of 10.1% and 4.7%, respectively, not counting Guyana, which has been experiencing an oil boom for some time.
SOLID INFLATION
The agency stated that “lower expected growth is accompanied by higher inflation and a slow recovery in employment” and that the war “has increased volatility and financial costs”.
In March, regional inflation was 7.5% and “many central banks expect inflation to remain elevated for the rest of the year,” according to ECLAC.
In order to contain the rise in prices, interest rates were raised “significantly” in most countries and in many cases reached levels similar to 2017.
“The withdrawal of fiscal stimulus is expected to accelerate in 2022, in line with evolving macroeconomic conditions and rising financing costs,” she added.
According to ECLAC, the war has also increased volatility in financial markets and impacted capital flows to emerging markets.
“These trends could become even more pronounced in the coming months, particularly if inflationary pressures persist in developed economies and central banks tighten monetary tightening,” he warned.
Latin America, the region hardest hit by the pandemic, grew 6.2% in 2021 as it rebounded from a 6.8% plunge in 2020, the deepest recession in 120 years.