Ecuador opened the door to a great unknown while simultaneously closing another to what is already known. Most of them were Ecuadorians President this Sunday, October 15, to the young businessman Daniel Noboawhich experienced a meteoric rise within just a few weeks They distanced themselves from a possible return to power of the populist former President Rafael Correa (2007-2017).
Although Noboa in the truest sense of the word a newcomer to politics, this young businessman, only 35 years old, is the son of the richest man in Ecuador, Álvaro Noboa, who repeatedly and unsuccessfully tried to become the head of state of the Andean country, half a dozen times. However, the new president was not associated with the businesses of his father, who was nicknamed the “Banana King,” and has decided to set up his own ventures.
After counting more than 97% of the votes, electoral authorities declared him president-elect. Noboa reached 52% and her opponent Luisa González remained at 48%. This is not an insignificant number for the candidacy of this former lawmaker and close associate of Correa, of which he is the main character The campaign offer was to return to the politics of Correism.
The possibility of It will be virtually impossible for Correa to return to the country, for now, after the defeat of González. The former president, who fled the Ecuadorian justice system for several cases of corruption and abuse of power, lives in Belgium, from where he tries to set the political agenda in Ecuador through social networks and interviews with international media.
In 2021, Andrés Arauz, another political dolphin from Correa, lost to banker Guillermo Lasso in the second round elections. After a period of various obstacles and political tensions, particularly within a legislative assembly dominated by Correismo and indigenous movements, and faced with the threat of impeachment and eventual dismissal, Lasso took advantage of the constitutional opportunity to hold general elections.
This way, Noboa will only have a short presidency Because in 2025 there will be another election in Ecuador to continue the constitutional periods.
Noboa, according to political scientist Santiago Basabe, faces the challenge of governance, something Lasso failed to accomplish in his two years as president. And in the opinion of this academic and director of the Ecuadorian branch of the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences, the “almost” return of Correa’s accomplices will continue to be imminent in 2021 and in 2023, depending on whether the leadership of the young entrepreneur is successful or not. with multiple postgraduate degrees in the USA.
In this case Noboa will have the significant decline in the number of representatives of the indigenous movement in its favor, who allied themselves with Correa’s so-called Citizens’ Revolution, particularly last year. In the new legislative period, Correismo will have 50 MPs out of a total of 137.
The Christian Social Party (PSC) won 14 seats and President Noboa’s National Democratic Action Alliance (ADN) won 13 seats. The 28-member Chamber of Deputies of Construye, the movement that promoted the candidacy of journalist Fernando Villavicencio, who was murdered after a campaign event a few days before the first round last August, will initially play a key role in parliamentary decisions.
As well as Noboa’s victory closes the door for Correa’s returnOn the other hand, under his presidency the Presence of US police and military personnel on Ecuadorian territorya recent decision made by President Lasso, awaiting ratification by the Constitutional Court.
It will be the second opportunity in the 21st century American uniformed personnel are deployed within the country. And on this occasion it will be the first time that they are committed to the security of the citizens of the Andean country, since they have authorization for short-term actions aimed at combating criminal gangs dedicated to drug trafficking or human trafficking. .
The first was the relocation of an air base in the city of Manta, from where the US military conducted operations against drug trafficking between 1999 and 2009, when then-President Correa concluded this agreement.
This country of 17 million people, normally considered a peaceful nation, is currently in its worst security and violence crisis. According to police statistics, 3,513 murders were recorded between January and June this year, an increase of 58% compared to 2022.
Last year the murder rate was 26 per 100,000 inhabitants, and by the end of 2023 it could be 40 murders per 100,000 inhabitants. If something like this were to happen, Ecuador would become the most violent country in the region. And that will be an urgent problem for Noboa, who takes over the presidency on November 25th.
The new Ecuadorian president does not belong to any political party and is not ideologically defined, but he isHis speech is liberal, he wants to reduce taxes and encourage foreign investment. Noboa showed himself to be a family man during the election campaign. He is married and has two children; his wife is pregnant with a third.